Archive for July, 2010

Beginners’ evening at Naas

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

Fair play to Naas racecourse for putting on a beginners’ night this evening.  Here’s the deal. You get yourself along to the racecourse, pay your €15 in, get a free €5 betting voucher (that’s a net cost of €10 for you boys down the back), and enjoy a really decent evening’s racing while listening to a couple of people talk through some of the intricacies of the sport during the course of the night.

It’s a great idea, we need more of this.  One of the main barriers to entry to this game is the sense that it is a closed shop.  This racing world is a strange world to the football fan, with its furlongs and its guineas and its flat caps and its regulars who seem to know everything and say nothing. It can be an intimidating environment with a language and a population of its own, and it isn’t exactly conducive to attracting new blood.

We have all been there.  I remember being told by one of the flat-cap men who knew everything not to stand so close to the rail in a manner in which I had rarely been spoken to in the eight years that had gone before, and I remember a bookmaker laughing and saying he had no change when I proffered a one-pound note and asked for 50p win on a 6/4 shot. We have all had to learn. We still do.  I remember Dermot Weld once saying that the day you stop learning in this game is the day you should give it up.

Racing For Change(‘s Sake) have tried to go about this the other way across the water.  They have got the cart, put it about 40 yards in front of the horse and tried to reverse the horse into it in order that he could go forward.  Strange one.  They tried this decimal odds thing at Ascot a month or so ago, whereby all the bookmakers agreed to display decimal odds (you know the ones, the Betfair odds, 2.0 and 1.76) on their boards in the ring instead of fractional odds (7/4 and 11/2), and acclaimed it a resounding success, the vox pop said so (“Yes, I really understood those decimal odds” Andy from Leeds), until the bookmakers revealed that turnover had been well down. 

It was a crazy experiment.  At its core was the notion that we need to change the language and the fundamentals of racing so that non-racegoers can understand it in case they decide to become racegoers, with amazingly scant regard for racing’s current customers.  They weren’t even asked.  (How much does it cost to attract one new customer and how much does it cost to keep an existing one Henry?)  The fundamentals don’t need changing, they just need to be communicated.  You don’t see FIFA abolishing the off-side rule because half their potential target audience don’t understand it, do you?

I know if there was a beginners’ evening for ladies hockey, I would get myself along.  What’s the difference between a short corner and a long corner, why is one awarded instead of the other, and when is a penalty awarded instead of a short corner?  You have to score from inside the semi-circle, right? What if it takes a deflection on the way through, does that count?  Is there off-side, or a square ball rule, or something similar?  What if you kick the ball by accident? What if an opponent flicks it onto your foot?  How does the over-head rule work?

Can you bet in-running?

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Naas preview

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

The ground was described as good to yielding, yielding in places ahead of this evening’s flat card at Naas but conditions could easily deteriorate if the forecast heavy showers hit the “punter’s graveyard”.

The Listed Sweet Mimosa Stakes is a worthy feature event, and the 6f contest has attracted a couple of interesting overseas raiders in the shape of Swiss Diva and Prescription. The latter’s trainer Sir Mark Prescott has his team in good form at the moment and given his superb record with runners here (most of them ridden by tonight’s jockey Declan McDonogh) she ought to prove hard to beat, with the in-foal Miss Gorica perhaps best of the home defence.

Fencing Master has been competing at a high level this season and Aidan O’Brien’s son of Oratorio should appreciate the drop in class for the Declan O’Brien Decompaction Company supporting Naas hurling Race at 8.00. However in Curragh maiden winner Wade Giles he faces a very promising rival and it could be closer between the pair than the betting this morning indicates.

Pat Flynn’s hot streak may well continue in the 1m apprentice handicap, where the Waterford handler once again joins forces with the very capable Joseph O’Brien. Their hope Aoibhinn is likely to appreciate the step back up to tonight’s trip after staying on later over 7f here last time.

Mayo minors carrying western hopes well

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010

Due to the unique backdoor system where only provincial final losers get a second chance, the line up for the All Ireland minor championship quarter finals had been finalised well before the last of the provincial finals at the weekend. Nonetheless the deciders in Ulster and Connacht were still extremely interesting from the point of view of assessing where the value lies in the outright market to lift the Tom Markham Cup. The Northern and Western provinces have enjoyed a great record in recent years at minor level and the past three deciders have featured one team from each province, and the early indications are that this form should continue again this year.

The form of Connacht football at adult level has taken a battering this year with Galway and Mayo performing so poorly, but the old rivals took part in an excellent minor decider on Sunday, with Mayo winning out due to a couple of outstanding goals. Connacht teams have featured in the last five All Ireland minor deciders, but it must surely rankle with Mayo that while Galway and Roscommon each took their chances beating Derry and Kerry in 2007 and 2006 respectively, Mayo lost all three of their opportunities in 2005, 2008 and last year and are still waiting since 1985 for their seventh title at this grade.

The Mayo full forward line, particularly captain Cillian O’Connor and corner forward Darren Coen, have gained most of the headlines this year and due to their form in 2009, but this is a very balanced Mayo team who have easily overcome the graduation of so many of last year’s All Ireland winning panel. Their form this year has been very consistent, winning the Connacht league and beating both Roscommon and Galway, who were the main contenders in the championship, so they seem well prepared for the All Ireland series.

Equally as relevant is the draw, and Mayo will be very happy to be meeting Offaly in the quarter finals. Offaly are another county who have won a lot of games at minor level in recent years but this year was their fourth Leinster final defeat in six years and just like Mayo are pushing for an All Ireland, Offaly have been desperately trying to win that elusive Leinster title. Longford’s win over Kildare in Pearse Park eliminated the best Leinster minor team of the year and indeed many would argue it eliminated the best minor team in the country, but even allowing for that, neither Longford nor Offaly were impressive in a national context. Both sides have serious weaknesses and the strong likelihood is that both teams will exit the championship at the next hurdle.

That will leave Mayo facing into a very tricky All Ireland semi final, most likely against Tyrone who were equally impressive at the weekend, however at the odds of 7/2 currently available, they are the best bet of the eight counties.

Perhaps the most over-rated counties in the draw are Kerry and Cork – both of these teams carry great reputations based on the historical achievements of their counties, but neither team looks to be working with an exceptionally rich vintage of players. Tyrone will be expected to overcome Kerry, but there is also a real possibility that Armagh could account for Cork, while Galway will be strong favourites against Longford leavin g no provincial winners on that side of the draw. Armagh may offer the best value based on this potential scenario and thus could be the team for the covering bet, despite their poor performance in the Ulster decider. The nature of minor teams is that off days can result in very heavy beatings as teams don’t have the experience to engage in damage limitation, so quite often teams can bounce back from setbacks.

A 3pt bet on Mayo at 7/2 is the main recommendation for this championship, with a 1pt wager on Armagh at 10/1 also advised.

Ballinrobe Tuesday preview

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010

The attention switches to the jumpers for the second day of Ballinrobe’s latest two-day fixture, where the first of seven races is due off at 6pm, and winners may well prove difficult to come by on what has the makings of a tricky card for punters.

Jack Cool will be many people’s idea of the best bet of the fixture, Charles Byrne’s son of One Cool Cat being turned out quickly under a penalty after taking advantage of De Senectute’s last flight blunder to land another gamble for his trainer at Killarney last week. That was his first outing for the yard and there may well be more to come.

Gordon Elliott, who has a good recent record here, once again sends a strong team to the western venue and Perth bumper scorer Esporao may represent his best chance in the opening maiden hurdle. However former Ballydoyle inmate Hail Caesar could be tough to beat in light of a reasonable effort at Bellewstown earlier this month.

Kaitlins Joy is a fascinating jumping debutante in the 2m maiden hurdle, in which Carrigmartin and Elliott’s Definite All Star are also worthy of close consideration, while Grande Luso and costly Limerick failure Jewel In The Sun may dominate the finish of the concluding bumper.

Simple life

Monday, July 19th, 2010

There was a time when I backed horses because I thought they were good horses with little regard to the price or the ground or the track and sometimes even with little regard to the opposition.  I remember backing Ela-Mana-Mou to win the Eclipse and backing him again to win the King George, simply because he had won the Eclipse and was therefore, by definition, a good horse.  I’m not sure that I really knew he was stepping up in trip, but it didn’t matter.  He was my horse and he was a good one.

I remember backing Troy to win the Epsom Derby and backing him again to win the Irish Derby, almost certainly because I had backed him at Epsom, without thinking about whether or not he was value at odds-on.  I had a tape recording of Mícheál O’Hehir’s Curragh commentary – tape recorder placed close to the television for maximum impact – to which I continually listened for years afterwards: “Here comes Troy!” 

I’m almost sure I backed Shareef Dancer to win the King Edward at Royal Ascot in 1983, although he may have been a lone winner in a Yankee, the scourge of the punting classes, because I did back him again to win the Irish Derby, the first time I was at the Irish Derby actually, my first year as a secondary school student, which meant that I was on my summer holidays by the time the end of June rolled around and was therefore able to join my grandfather’s annual road trip that took in Gowran Park and Newbridge dogs and a couple of nights in Mrs Kelly’s B&B just outside Newbridge. 

Life was simple then. Road signs were in miles, the Derby was on a Saturday and form analysis involved checking the runners and the all-important riders in the Evening Press on Friday evening (6th Edition), checking the Sporting Chronicle on Saturday morning – my grandfather was always a Sporting Chronicle man, never a Sporting Life man, and an Independent man, Irish Independent Monday to Saturday, Sunday Independent on, well, Sunday, hanging in the bag outside Byrnes’s grocery shop – and writing out a bet.

Then I got older and cleverer and started studying form and figures and weighing up odds.  Clever indeed.  I didn’t back Commander In Chief in the Irish Derby, I didn’t back Dancing Brave in the Arc, I didn’t back Nashwan again after he won the 2000 Guineas, I didn’t back Kicking King in another chase after he won the Gold Cup, nor War Of Attrition, and I didn’t back Moscow Flyer again after he won the 2003 Champion Chase.  He was always way too short and I was always way too clever.

I didn’t back Snow Fairy in the Irish Oaks at The Curragh yesterday.  If the race had been run 30 years ago, or if I had been born 30 years later, I probably would have.  Followed her on from Epsom.  You have a sense of ownership when you are a young fellow that comes with clutching a Kevin Hughes Bookmaker ticket with the name of the horse etched on it in joined up writing.  When the horse wins, that sense is strengthened and compels you to re-invest when he or she next runs, couched in the comfort that you are, as all good betting shop punters know, playing with their money.

She was good, though, wasn’t she?  Makes you wonder: how much better would she have been if she had had her ground?

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Ballinrobe Monday preview

Monday, July 19th, 2010

With the Galway Festival now just a week away, the Irish racing circuit heads west this evening for the first day of a two-day fixture at Ballinrobe, a flat card comprising three 1m6f events and four over the 1m1f trip.

Pat Flynn has his horses in such good form at the moment (another two winners yesterday) that his runners deserve the closest scrutiny, and recent Gowran Park runner-up Yes Missus looks his best chance in the 1m1f maiden at 7.20. The daughter of Alamshar made good progress from her debut effort to chase home Jim Bolger’s Saoi last time, and provided the latter’s stable-mate Sanan Dancer isn’t of similar calibre should go one better.

Flynn saddles Listowel winner Jeangeorges in the concluding 1m1f handicap and following another solid effort at Down Royal last time ought to be thereabouts once again in the concluding handicap. Last week’s Killarney eye-catcher Gra Geal Mo Chroi is another for the short-list here.

Lough Ferrib is likely to appreciate the return to a longer trip in the 6.20 after attracting the attention of the stewards over an inadequate trip at the Curragh, the veteran son of Accordion still potentially well-handicapped in this sphere, while Flynn’s Connyella and useful jumper Beau Michael could be the two to concentrate on in the night’s feature event half an hour later.

Sunday preview

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

Rosanara’s late withdrawal is an undoubted blow, but even in the absence of the Prix de Diane runner-up a potentially great race is on the cards in this afternoon’s Darley Irish Oaks at the Curragh.

Snow Fairy, Meeznah and Remember When, the first three home at Epsom, renew rivalry while the 1-2 in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot also take each other on again. Hibaayeb had the better of the argument on that occasion but runner-up Eldalil was having just her third career start and could get closer this time. Perhaps Meeznah can improve enough to give her young trainer David Lanigan a fairytale success in his burgeoning training career.

The Group 3 Anglesey Stakes is all about quality rather than quantity, with just four runners set to line up. The most interesting of them is the only newcomer Glor Na Mara, who has been well-touted for some time and was originally due to make his debut in the Railway Stakes on Derby weekend. Samuel Morse, runner-up in that race, sets the standard on form, while Dunboyne Express looked good when justifying strong support on his debut at Leopardstown.

She’s Our Mark boasts solid prospects of repeating last year’s victory in the Kilboy Estate Stakes, with the easing ground likely to be in her favour, while recent Fairyhouse scorer Park Ranger could give Katie Walsh a second Ladies Derby.

There is also some high quality jumps action at Tipperary this afternoon, with two Galway Hurdle winners going head to head in the featured Kevin McManus Bookmakers Grimes Hurdle. Bahrain Storm is set to bid for a follow-up at Ballybrit in eleven days time if all goes well here, but Paul Nolan’s charge – who could take in Wednesday week’s Plate – may just have his measure. His trainer stated during the week that this has been his big summer target for some time.

Gordon Elliott’s Russian War is not the most straightforward type, but should follow up his Bellewstown maiden victory provided he is on his best behaviour in the 3m hurdle.

Curragh Saturday preview

Saturday, July 17th, 2010

Irish Oaks weekend gets under way with a seven-race card featuring what appears to be a wide-open renewal of the Group 3 Minstrel Stakes, where a field of nine is headed by the sole overseas challenger Arabian Gleam.

Jeremy Noseda sent out Formosina to land the Railway Stakes here on Derby weekend, and it is unlikely that he will have left much to work on ahead of the Kyllachy entire’s seasonal debut. He was beaten by one of today’s rivals Duff at Doncaster on his penultimate start of 2009, but that was a funny race in which Fran Berry ploughed a lone furrow down the stands side on the winner and last year’s Irish 2000 Guineas runner-up Rayeni may pose a greater threat.

Today also sees the first nursery of the year, and with the race being run in honour of her mother Tracey Collins will be especially keen to land the prize with Belleau. The daughter of Big Bad Bob knuckled down well to score at Roscommon, but there are several unknown quantities lurking amongst the opposition with the potential to improve past her.

Toufan Express has shaped as though returning to form on his last couple of starts and should give another good account in the 7f handicap, though his low draw may not be ideal.

Polar Explorer is another for whom the draw could have been kinder, but Charles O’Brien’s unexposed sprinter can nevertheless be expected to step up significantly on last week’s eighth at Tipperary on what was his first outing since April in the 6f handicap.

Marked for Oaksport

Friday, July 16th, 2010

Table quiz question: What do Aidan O’Brien, Jim Bolger, John Oxx, Dermot Weld and Paddy Mullins have in common?

None of them have trained a Melbourne Cup winner?  Nope.

All of them have trained a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner?  Nope.

They all studied to be a vet?  No.  An amateur rider?  No.  An accountant?  Are you serious?

They are the only Irish-based trainers who have won the Darley Irish Oaks in the last 25 years? Ah that’s it. 

The foreigners used to come over and plunder our Oaks like it was going out of fashion, which it nearly did.  Dick Hern was at it for a while, Shoot A Line and Swiftfoot in the early 1980s, Helen Street in 1985, swiftly followed by Stoute and Cecil with Colorspin and Unite and Alydaress, and the pair of them sharing the spoils in 1988 with the Sheikh Mohammed-owned pair Diminuendo and Melodist and wondering where all the Irish trainers had gone.  Paul Cole and Barry Hills and Alex Scott and Clive Brittain were all at it, and even Andre Fabre got in on the act with Wemyss Bight to ensure that, remarkably, no Irish trainer appeared on the role of honour for the Irish Oaks for 11 years and 12 winners between 1985 and 1995 inclusive.

This year’s renewal looks like a throwback to those dark days, with the first five in the betting hailing from foreign climes, and you could make a case for all five. Snow Fairy is the Epsom Oaks winner, the filly who cost 1,800gns to buy and €42,500 to supplement to Sunday’s race.  She could have been playing a lead role in Cars given the manner in which she slalomed her way to success at Epsom, and she has to be favourite.

Meeznah was second at Epsom, beaten just a neck on just her fourth ever race, and she is certain to improve.  She is a big scopey filly, she didn’t handle Epsom’s gradients well, and she should be much more at home on the vast expanses of The Curragh.  Much more conventional.

That said, there is a school of thought that says that the Ribblesdale was a better race than the Oaks this year, despite the fact that the Royal Ascot contest is only a Group 2 race.  Gertrude Bell, a solid performer, who finished fifth in the Oaks, seven lengths behind Snow Fairy, was only seventh in the Ribblesdale, 16 lengths behind the winner.  Bikini Babe, another useful yardstick, was beaten 13 lengths in the Oaks and 30 lengths in the Ribblesdale.

Royal Ascot heroine Hibaayeb was a classy performer as a juvenile for Clive Brittain, rounding off the season by winning the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile, while the filly who chased her home in the Ribblesdale, Eldalil, came from a near impossible position and made up an acre of ground inside the final furlong and a half to grab the runner-up spot on just her third ever run.  Both of those fillies are set to line up again at The Curragh on Sunday, as the intrigue builds.

And as if that wasn’t a strong enough raiding party, you can throw in the French challenger Rosanara, winner of the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend last year on just her second run, who didn’t enjoy the best of luck in-running and was unlucky that her stable companion Sarafina proved to be as good as it looked like she might be when she chased her home in the French Oaks at Chantilly last month. 

The one fear about all five, however, is that they all want good or fast ground.  All of their best performances are on fast ground. There has been money for Rosanara when the rain story developed, she is out of a Linamix mare and she does have form on good ground, but she is by Sinndar and she was a disappointing even money favourite when she finished third behind Jan Vermeer and Emerald Commander in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud last November.

If the rains stick around (remember Sariska sinking in knee deep on this day last year?), there could be a bit of a shock on the cards.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Close calls in the qualifiers

Friday, July 16th, 2010

Meath were our worst possible result for Leinster. Having laid them at prices as big as 6/1, we at Ladbrokes were as disgusted as any Louthman at the infamous passage of play that saw the Wee County robbed of a provincial title and Ladbrokes robbed of a near skinner of a book. Empathizing with the Louth men we decided to pay all bets on them for the match and province outright as winners. No point in spinning yarns about it, it wasn’t the most expensive concession we’ve ever offered, as the majority of our liabilities were stacked against Meath, nevertheless the payouts would have taken some of the sting out of the disappointment Louth supporters suffered.

There’s some cracking games this weekend as the qualifiers heat up. Dublin’s footballers are yet to convince the media or their supporters of their ability to have a worthwhile run through the summer. The Dubs have a different set of standards to live up to than most teams though. It’s hard to imagine any side coming in for as much criticism as Dublin did after their eight point win over Tipp. This is knockout football now and all that counts is getting through.

Armagh will pose a major threat to Dublin on Saturday. We’ve priced the Dubs as narrow favourites at 8/11 and offer Armagh at 11/8. Bar the Monaghan game where the mitigating circumstances of being down a man by half time and suffering a tactical checkmate at the hands of Banty and Grimley, this Armagh side has done little wrong. Jamie Clarke and Steven McDonnell have between them the youth and experience, the zip and the guile, to turn an embarrassing spotlight on Dublin’s loose defending again. I think the game will be there for the taking by the more composed team in the dying minutes and historically will become a landmark game for both victors and vanquished. If pushed I’d side with Armagh but there’s very little between the sides as I see it.

Derry’s run through the qualifiers has been arguably soft thus far, well that all ends on Saturday as the busy and robust game plied by Kildare comes to town. The aura of Derry’s invincibility at Celtic Park was punctured by Armagh earlier this summer and that’s a boost for the Lilywhites who played their third successive game against Ulster opposition having drawn with – and then beaten – Antrim in recent weeks. It’s hard to split the sides again but I’ve gone with Derry as 4/5 favs because I think home advantage is such a factor in the qualifiers. As county sponsors we’re firmly rooting for the Oak Leafers of course!

Finally a look at the Ulster Final. Monaghan have been ruthless in their destruction of Ulster opposition on their way to the Clones showpiece. While some may question whether there is a ‘home’ advantage here, I firmly believe that it’s certainly more in Monaghan’s favour to play at Clones rather than say Casement Park. They have been backed from 13/8 in to 11/8 to take the victory in 70 minutes so there is certainly no shortage of belief from the betting public in Monaghan’s ability. That being said, a motivated and fit Tyrone team is a unique force in the game and one that no many have bettered. For me, its a question of hunger and I think Monaghan might want this silverware more, but looking at my book on this game, I hope I’m wrong.

Punt On!

Follow Ladbrokes GAA on Facebook

Subscribe to Betdairy