Last Sunday’s All Ireland quarter final between Tipperary and Galway has raised the bar in terms of quality for the year, but if any game this year is likely to match that Croke Park clash for intensity and quality, there’s a good chance that it will be tomorrow night’s Munster under-21 decider in Thurles between Clare and Tipperary. With Galway hurling at a low ebb and their under 21’s shorn of a lot of their better performers from recent seasons, the winners of this clash are by far the most likely winners of the All Ireland title, and the bookies have made it clear who they expect to progress into the All Ireland semi-finals, installing Tipperary as 2/5 favourites.

Both these counties came back from difficult situations in their Munster semi-finals, eventually justifying favouritism after Cork and Limerick put in very good efforts at upsetting the odds. Tipperary in particular looked to be in real trouble after conceding seven points on the bounce midway through the second half, only to salvage extra time and eventually go on to take the honours in extra time. Clare looked weak in the opening stages against Limerick and fell behind early on, but they reeled their neighbours back in by half time and then edged a tit for tat battle that lasted throughout the second half.

Many Clare Supporters felt that their team lacked zip in the early stages due to having played at senior level the weekend previously, and that’s a handicap that Tipperary will have to overcome this weekend. Lar Corbett’s late winning score was invaluable to the under-21 management in that it meant that this team was coming in on a high without having had to go through the ordeal of extra time, and every one of the under 21 players in the senior line up put in a very solid display of hurling. As obstacles go, having played last Sunday should not prove too severe.

Of much more relevance however is the fact that this Clare team have had some time to work together and to develop as a coherent unit, time that Liam Sheedy could notafford to grant to the Premier county under-21’s. Many of this Clare panel are already well used to each other from playing together in 2009, however there are also a lot of new recruits in this lineup and the extra nights of training together will be hugely beneficial. At senior level there is a big gulf between these two counties, but at under 21 that gap narrows significantly. Both these counties have plenty of representatives at senior level – but for Tipperary, the under 21 players are adding depth to the team – in Clare, the younger hurlers are the leaders of the senior team, with guys like Caimín Morey, John Conlon and Darach Honan all star names on the Banner senior squad.

With more training under their belts, the experience of winning in 2009 and a big open playing surface that will suit their extremely mobile forward line, Clare have every reason to believe that they can give Tipperary a thorough examination of their hurling tomorrow evening. 2/5 is way too short about a side that granted, was an excellent minor team three years ago, but also showed against a relatively unheralded Cork team that they have a lot of improvement to do yet. A 3pt bet on Clare at 9/4 to beat Tipperary in the Munster under 21 hurling final is the recommendation of this column.

The festival continues with another seven race mixed programme featuring the €120,000 Topaz Galway Mile, in which last year’s first and second, Rock And Roll Kid and Maundy Money, are back to do battle once more. The latter is the better drawn of the pair and may get his revenge this time, with Mujaazef and Worldly Wise two others for the shortlist.

Dermot Weld made his usual good start to the week with a double on the opening evening, and the master of Rosewell once again holds several strong chances. Former high-class bumper horse Universal Truth should be very hard to beat in the opening maiden hurdle after gaining some important experience at Leopardstown over Christmas, while Zaminast is a fascinating newcomer in the fillies two year-old maiden.

The latter faces a tough task on her debut against the beautifully-bred Why however, Aidan O’Brien’s filly likely to improve significantly on her recent debut fourth at the Curragh.

Weld’s Northern Rocked is sure to be well-fancied for the 7f handicap at 8.05, but another course specialist Fit The Cove catches the eye here despite having to shoulder top-weight. Harry Rogers’ veteran is now back on the same mark as when notching the first of his two wins at last year’s festival and showed signs of a revival when third at Naas last week.

There I was, as Harbinger bounded clear in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (sponsored by Betfair) on Saturday, on his way to putting up the best performance of his life, probably the best performance of the season to date and one of the most impressive performances in the King George ever, I was watching Daryakana, willing her past Youmzain in their private scrap for third place. (She didn’t get past, each-way ante post money down.) 

That’s what betting does to you, it makes you focus your attention on a specific aspect of a race when you are watching live (usually the horse you have backed) rather than allowing you see the big picture.  You see the detail but you miss the panorama.  You see the tree but you sometimes miss the wood.  Of course it’s okay these days with Sky Plus and Racing UK replay and the Racing Post and At The Races video archives, you can watch your horse through the race, then go back five minutes or five days later and watch the entire race from an objective viewpoint, with the added advantage of knowing what to look for. 

On Sunday morning, I looked for Harbinger.  He travelled supremely well for Olivier Peslier through the race, and it was obvious from long before they straightened up for home that he had the two Derby winners well covered.  Indeed, it wasn’t odds-on at that point that Cape Blanco and Workforce were going to get past the pacemaker Confront.  In fairness to Cape Blanco, he kept on admirably to take second place but, in reality, Daylight was second.

There has been some argument since about the merit of the performance.  That’s the great thing about this game, like the great debates, you almost always get the arguments on both sides.  Why didn’t Michael Stoute run him in a Group 1 race before now, asked some, quite legitimately.  Can he have improved so much this season?  Workforce obviously under-performed, this can’t have been his running, and the Derby form has worked out terribly anyway. Also, Cape Blanco may have been a below-par Irish Derby winner, with the third home that day, Jan Vermeer, getting beaten in the Grand Prix de Paris, and the fourth horse, Monterosso, getting well beaten in the German Derby.

Not so fast there grasshopper.  Harbinger was a Group 1 horse in-waiting last season, he was a short-priced favourite for the St Leger before he disappointed badly in the Great Voltigeur and Michael Stoute decided to draw stumps.  Interestingly, how different would his career-path have been if he had run in and/or won the Leger?  How many Leger winners do you see coming back to win the King George the following year? 

The Racing Post have rated Harbinger’s performance at 135, 6lb better than the performance that Workforce put up in winning the Derby, 7lb better than Paco Boy, and which makes him the best older horse since Sakhee.  Not better than Sakhee?

The BHA handicappers are humming and hawing a bit, as is their wont, talking about a figure “in the 130s”, which is a big help.  Timeform are definitive, as is also their wont, giving Harbinger a provisional rating of 142.  Sea-Bird was rated just 3lb higher on 145, Brigadier Gerard was rated 144, Mill Reef 141, while Dancing Brave and Shergar and Sea The Stars were rated just 140. 

Two pounds higher than Sea The Stars?  Surely not, is your initial reaction, but look at the facts.  To give Harbinger a rating that low assumes that Youmzain and Daryakana performed at levels that were 10lb and 8lb below their respective Timeform master ratings.  He won by 11 lengths, beating probably the two best middle-distance three-year-old colts in the UK and Ireland, giving them the 12lb weight-for-age allowance that this time of year dictates, and he broke the track record by almost a half a second, with Peslier being easier on him than he might have been, just one crack of the whip.  It was an incredible performance, and it looks rock solid. And yes it is plausible that he is still improving.  He didn’t run as a juvenile and this was just his ninth ever race.

Even money for the Arc?  Not so sure. That is short when an ante post bet is effectively a double that he lines up in the race and that he wins it. These aren’t really my types of prices but, if they were, I would much prefer back him at 4/5 or 8/11 on the day, knowing that he was healthy and well, than at even money, or even at 6/4, now.  Betting aside, we need to be sure that we fully appreciate him now.  He is not a three-year-old, so he is not as sexy as Workforce would have been if he had put up a similar performance, but he could be one of the very good horses.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

After weeks of anticipation and build-up the 2010 Galway Festival finally gets under way this evening with a seven race mixed card on ground that should be just on the easy side of good following a relatively dry weekend.

The Carlton.ie/Galwaycity Qualified Riders Handicap (formerly the GPT) tops the bill on the opening evening, and the Dermot Weld-trained Sublime Talent will be the starting point for many. The son of Sadlers Wells ran well at last year’s festival and comes into this on the back of a good win at the Curragh. However the likes of Galiann (having her first start for new owner JP McManus) and Bellewstown scorer Cyborg may be too strong for him over this longer trip.

The action gets under way with a novice hurdle for four year-olds in which Fingal Rock is the clear pick at the weights. However Peter Casey’s mare was disappointingly beaten by today’s rival Jerry’s Agent at Bellewstown earlier this month and could be vulnerable to Gordon Elliott’s improving Cabernet Sauvignon.

Paul Nolan has enjoyed some great days at Ballybrit down the years, and his Mull On The Run can be expected to go close in the 2m handicap hurdle if fit enough for his first outing since Easter. He bumped into a very well-handicapped animal at Punchestown on his last jumps start in Scholars Mate.

As usual on the opening night it will be a major shock if Dermot Weld leaves empty-handed, but his warm favourite A Word Apart is opposed with Kevin Prendergast’s Tashqeel in the two year-old maiden. The Rosewell House maestro’s best chance may lie in the concluding bumper via Naas runner-up Fort Defiance.

The old phrase “Out of sight, out of mind” is not only a well known dictum, but it also reflects the betting patterns of antepost punters extremely well. Unlike many sports where the big prizes are competed for on a league basis, the All Ireland Football and hurling championships slowly come to a conclusion over the course of a summer, with some teams playing a lot more games than others. For the last few weeks, we’ve watched Cork creep through round after round and we’ve seen Tyrone register a hugely impressive win in the Ulster championship decider. The Dubs have rediscovered their rhythm under the watchful eyes of the Hill 16 faithful, while Kildare’s free scoring attack and high tempo game has caught the attention of a lot of people too.

All of this has gone on at a time when Kerry are last remembered for struggling to win a Munster final that they appeared to have in the bag, only for a late and unlikely comeback by Limerick while playing into a strong breeze. Right now, other teams are catching the eye while Kerry have been forgotten about – and that has been reflected in the betting patterns where Kerry haven’t attracted the level of support that their ability and form would suggest is appropriate.

Kerry and Tyrone were the two best teams of the past decade and they are the two best teams of this year so far as well, but they were treated very differently by the draw that took place on Sunday evening. While Down and Kildare were put into Kerry’s half of the draw, Dublin and Cork were the obstacles presented to Tyrone. Kerry unquestionably got the better part of that deal and right now they look like a very strong favourite to take part in their seventh consecutive All Ireland final.

Realistically, no matter how impressive Dublin, Cork or Tyrone are in getting to the All Ireland final from the other side of the draw, Kerry are unlikely to be much bigger than even money to lift the trophy. Kerry went odds against when facing Dublin in last year’s quarter final and we all remember how that ended – bookies will tread very warily before installing them as underdogs again. Even if we do chalk them up at even money for the All Ireland once they reach the final, their current odds of 9/4 suggest that they are 8/13 to reach the final right now – a price that is simply way too big based on the standard of opponent that lies in their way.

Kerry were always likely to be at their most vulnerable next weekend, with Paul Galvin and Tomás Ó’Sé absent and with a long rest behind them. If they had drawn Kildare, then there might be cause for concern – but Down are simply not at the standard required to knock over the Kingdom. Down are very vulnerable through the spine of their defence and both the full back and centre back positions are causing them problems. They have a wide array of good forwards, but even at this stage of the season having played five games, James McCartan is uncertain as to his best line up. If the books decide to give Down perhaps a five point start then they might be worth a handicap bet, but it’s just too much to envisage them eliminating the All Ireland champions.

Kildare and Meath are two competitive teams who are scoring well, but they too have weak spots and if Kerry have a game under their belts, both sides are entitled to be 4/1 or so to knock out Kerry in a straight battle. 8/13 to reach the final is way too big and the 9/4 currently on offer is an excellent bet.

Ladbrokes have reacted to the draw and changed their each way terms to a quarter of the odds to finish in the first two, but even on those terms, Kerry are a good each way wager. Odds of just over 8/15 to reach the final is an excellent price and well worth taking also. This column suggests getting rightly stuck into this bet and having 4pts each way on Kerry to win the All Ireland at 9/4. Hopefully the place part will collect without too much fuss and then the possibility of locking away a profit can be examined at the final stage.

Reasons to back Workforce in tomorrow’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, sponsored by Betfair? Note, it’s not the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes, not any more, not since De Beers decided to end their sponsorship of the race.  Perhaps the shiny pieces of carbon weren’t making as much on the open market as they used to, or perhaps they just felt that the sponsorship had run its course, or perhaps they felt that they weren’t getting as much out of their sponsorship as they should have. 

That’s an interesting one, because it wasn’t until relatively recently that the realisation dawned that there was a sponsor involved at all, that the Diamond business wasn’t part of the race title, and it’s still difficult to say King George VI and Queen Elizabeth without following it with the D word. 

That said, these subtle sponsorships are good, the sponsorship deals that preserve the race titles, the stepping stones as we plot our way through the current season and the landmarks by which we will remember it, and Ascot are very good at them.  As such, Betfair deserve every mention that they get for their subtle sponsorship, much more than the 1/37th of the roulette wheel that sponsored the Bunbury Cup and demanded that the Bunbury Cup be re-named for the duration of their sponsorship – with Newmarket’s corroboration, it has to be said – which might just be for one year, with scant regard for the heritage or the history of the Bunbury Cup, which could have been the Derby had the toss of a coin gone the other way (no kiddin).

Anyway, reasons for backing Workforce:

1. He’s the Derby winner, and they’re all good.

2. He broke the track record in the Derby, he went faster than Nijinsky, faster than The Minstrel, faster than Lammtara, Grundy, Troy, Sinndar, Galileo, and all the other great horses who won the Derby.

3. He was having just his third ever run in the Derby, he is almost certainly still improving.

4. He is trained by Michael Stoute, one of the best trainers in the business, who trained the first three home in last year’s King George.

5. He will be ridden by Ryan Moore, probably the best flat jockey around these days.

6. After Moore won the Hardwicke Stakes on Harbinger, he apparently said that the King George winner was still at home in his box (Workforce, we presume, unless he was talking about Confront, which is a shade of odds-against).

Reasons for not backing Workforce:

1. He’s the Derby winner, but seven of the last 15 of those never won another race, and the form of this year’s Derby is not working out well.

2. He broke the clock in the Derby, which means that he had to have had a hard race. Even Ryan Moore mused afterwards that he might have been too hard on him.  Michael Stoute by-passed the Irish Derby with him in order to give him time to recover, but we won’t know until tomorrow afternoon if he has had sufficient time.

3. Stoute’s last two Derby winners, Kris Kin and North Light, failed to win again, with the former coming up short in the King George.

4. Michael Stoute is going through a quiet time.  Before Nouriya won at York this evening, he had had just four winners in July from 52 runners.

5. The only time Workforce met Cape Blanco, he lost, and he is one-sixth the price of the Ballydoyle colt for tomorrow’s race.

6. He is en even money shot. 

If you back him at even money, if you think that he is value at that price, that means that you think that he is more likely to win the race than to lose it.  That is a big call.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Wexford’s Friday evening mixed fixture brings the curtain down on the Irish racing circuit earlier than usual this week, with a blank weekend ahead of the marathon week-long Festival at Galway.

Many of the big flat stables are represented in the early races, and following Famous Name’s excellent win at Leopardstown last night Dermot Weld will be hoping for another late boost ahead of the Ballybrit extravaganza courtesy of Treasure The Cross in the opening 1m fillies maiden. The daughter of Cape Cross has been runner-up on both starts to date, including over tonight’s course and distance on her debut, and may put her race fitness to good use against likely danger Saajidah.

By The Sea gained due reward for some solid efforts in defeat when scoring at Gowran Park earlier this month and promises to go well once again in the 47-60 1m handicap at 6.35. Headford Lady went agonisingly close to landing a big price gamble at Killarney last week and is feared most.

With several significant non-runners, Midnight Soprano and Bellewstown second Scots Gaelic could be the two to concentrate on in the 1m2f maiden at 7.35.

Tony Mullins has his dual purpose string in good heart at present and will have high hopes of a double with recent Ballinrobe third Fammi Sognare in the claimer and Battling Boru in the bumper. The latter’s Limerick form was given a timely boost when runner-up Jewel In The Sun bolted up on Tuesday.

The “Fish and Chip shop tour of Ireland”, as it was once called by Colm O’Rourke on the Sunday game, draws to a close this weekend as the final four qualifier fixtures take place and line up for the football championship quarter finals is finalised. Round four is usually one of the trickier rounds to assess, as the mental state of the provincial final losers is always difficult to predict with confidence. In theory, Limerick should be the most positive team of the four since they played some great football against a good Kerry team and they have the advantage of both a long break and a home draw, but they’ve been handed a very tough opponent in Cork and could conceivably play very well and still fall short.

Cork have avoided any high profile ties in the qualifiers and could easily find themselves back in Croke Park without a scratch on them so to speak, something which might not be in their best interests in the long run. They needed a tough test to really get a handle on how some of their players will cope with difficult challenges and while Wexford defended well, the match result was never in doubt after Cork got off to the much better start. Cavan may as well have sent down the 1947 Polo Grounds team, such was the paucity of their challenge. Limerick will pose problems for Cork around the diamond where they are very strong, but Conor Counihan was perhaps the only manager who might have wanted to meet Monaghan out of the draw last weekend.

If logic prevailed, Monaghan should be favourites against Kildare, however the complete annihilation that they suffered at the hands of Tyrone last weekend is likely to leave more than a few mental scars. Tyrone completely shut down a very strong Monaghan attack and Seamus McEnaney faced one of the toughest tests of his managerial career in getting their championship season back on track earlier this week. Monaghan are still one of the best four or five teams in Ireland in terms of playing personnel and overall structure, however they blinked in the face of the bright lights of a potential Anglo Celt Cup, and they now have to prove to the nation that they can bounce back.

The safer play in this game is probably to side with Kildare who do have momentum on their side, but instinctively this column would advise against such a tactic. Monaghan have a lot more in reserve and will know that if they can get over this challenge, they would have nothing to fear against Roscommon or Meath, while they’ve given Kerry a few huge scares in recent seasons. There is an All Ireland semi final place still on the table for this team and that motivation might be enough to get them to put the horror show of Clones behind them.

Dublin’s match with Louth was analysed in this column earlier in the week and nothing that has happened since suggests that Louth are in any better position to pull off an upset, however Down and Sligo is a lot tricker to assess with any confidence. Down’s league form suggested that they were strong contenders to be involved at this stage of the season, however their qualifier form against both Longford and Offaly hasn’t been sufficiently strong in the sense that they’ve been second best for long periods of games. They beat Longford by bursting out of the blocks and running up an 0-9 to 0-3 lead by half time, but they still needed a dodgy penalty to steer themselves home, while their qualifier tie with Offaly was similarly won in a four minute spell after half time where Down struck 1-2 without reply. Offaly were the better team for the other 66 minutes of that match but failed to make their dominance pay – and Sligo, if they can rediscover that sense of grievance and aggression that they displayed against Mayo and Galway, should be looking on this as a great chance.

Sligo won the last qualifier tie between these two sides, but the concern for them is that Fergal O’Donnell managed to expose a real flaw in Sligo’s set up. If David Kelly is closed down, Sligo often run out of ideas in terms of creating scores out of midfield possession. The Connacht final looked as if Sligo were reeling Roscommon in and only ran out of time, but in fact from a purist’s point of view, Roscommon were playing the more effective football. Sligo’s late scores were Hail Mary efforts, long range shots from outside the 45m line or out on the sideline, shots that backs are generally happy to concede. The fact that they went over doesn’t suddenly mean that it’s a good tactical ploy. On another day Alan Costello would have missed half of those shots, Johnny Davey’s sixty yard punt would have sailed over the corner flag and Roscommon would have had a much more comfortable win.

Down have much more form and sense to their play and on those grounds, are more likely to progress to the quarter finals, even if they will be the team that everyone wants to meet once they get to that stage.

A Group 3 double-header ought to draw a good crowd to Leopardstown for the latest of the popular Thursday evening fixtures at the Dublin track, and Aidan O’Brien has his usual strong hand in both contests.

Indeed it will represent a major shock if the Ballydoyle maestro fails to capture the first of the feature events, the Korean Racing Authority Tyros Stakes, where he saddles half the four-strong field including red-hot favourite Zoffany. The son of Dansili put his Royal Ascot disappointment behind him to make it three wins from four starts in a Listed contest here earlier this month and should be much too strong for his rivals.

Steinbeck is the big O’Brien hope for the Jockey Club Of Turkey Meld Stakes, but the Footstepsinthesand colt proved rather disappointing in the St James’s Palace Stakes last month and faces a formidable rival in Famous Name. The latter is a real course specialist, and despite conceding weight all round should still prove very hard to beat.

Holly Hill indicated that a return to the winner’s enclosure might not be too far away when a good fourth at the Curragh on Sunday and off a 3lb lower mark has solid prospects in the apprentices handicap, while Peacock’s Pride is a fascinating contender for the concluding 1m6f handicap after landing a maiden hurdle on his first start for John Kiely.

The rivalry between Galway and Tipperary remains one of the more celebrated in the GAA, and one that this column incorrectly assessed earlier in the year when suggesting that a close game was likely in the league tie between the two sides. In what was very much a game of two halves, Tipperary held Galway to a single point in the second half and wound up the easy winners, 2-17 to 0-14, despite trailing by four points at half time. That turned out to be Galway’s only defeat in the National Hurling league, but as we later found out, Kilkenny, Cork and possibly even Waterford were keeping plenty in reserve during their meetings with the Tribesmen.

Galway went on to win the National Hurling league, but their form in the championship has been very unspectacular and following a direct formline through either Offaly or Wexford, Tipperary seem well placed to enjoy a comfortable win in this weekend’s All Ireland Quarter Final meeting at Croke Park.

Occasionally, when searching out a path to beat the bookies, there can be a temptation to delve too deep into analysis, looking for that tiny titbit of information that makes all the difference. Sometimes, as appears to be the case here, the facts are clear cut. Tipperary had one poor game against Cork this year, but they have made a lot of adjustment since then and most importantly, their defensive solidity appears to be as strong as it was in 2009. No attack with players of the calibre of Lar Corbett and Eoin Kelly is ever likely to struggle for sustained periods of time, even if they aren’t getting nearly as much from Seamus Callinan or Noel McGrath, but against Cork the issue was that the Tipperary attack was simply starved of possession rather than poor finishing. That is unlikely to happen here since this is a very strong half back line meeting up with a very poor half forward unit – Tipperary have every reason to believe that they can monopolise the Galway puck out in this match.

It may seem foolish to dismiss the chances of any team based on their inability to crack the Kilkenny nut, but even so it was very disappointing to see Galway fail to make even the slightest impression on the Kilkenny rearguard. There is no shame whatsoever in losing to the greatest team in history, but to do so without even forcing any of the Kilkenny forwards to bring their best game to Croke Park suggests that this Galway team is simply not at the required level.

It goes without saying that if Tipperary rediscover the form from 2009 they should win this with plenty to spare, however they may not even have to go that far. The total points line of 42.5 looks perhaps one point too high, but for this game we’re going to look at the handicap market and recommend Tipperary to cover the two point spread at odds of 10/11.

Croke Park hasn’t always been kind to Tipperary but they overcame those demons in 2009 and now that the draw has opened up a realtively straightforward run to the final, they are unlikely to let their neighbours to the west disrupt that journey.