The meeting of Fermanagh and Monaghan at Brewster Park sees Ladbrokes at the extreme of the market, offering a best price 4/11 about Seamus McEneaney’s side progressing to an Ulster final after 70 minutes.

Certainly Monaghan’s demolition job on Armagh looks a far more impressive piece of form than Fermanagh’s win over Cavan if given a cursory inspection. Also bolstering the case for the Farney men is the gulf in divisional standings between the two sides in the National League pecking order.

Armagh were outfoxed from the sidelines and outplayed on the field by Monaghan to the extent that Monaghan toyed with a bit of showboating. Fermanagh’s victory over Cavan was harder won, and in my opinion is a more genuine line of form than one which ends with tagging on glory scores against deflated opposition.

Make no mistake, I’m not saying Fermanagh are the more likely winners here or anything like that, but if there’s value in the game its in punting Fermanagh. I’ll be keeping them on my side in the handicaps this week – we give them 3 points at 6/5.

The qualifier draw was relatively kind to Derry, and its difficult to see them slipping up against a Carlow side that took a ten point drubbing against Wicklow last month. Injury and suspension has ravaged a Carlow panel that could ill afford it and Derry should cover the seven point spread if they are so inclined.

Armagh and Donegal will doubtless have been less impressed with their fortunes in the qualifying draw as the Ulster rivals pair off at Crossmaglen in a proper knockout clash. Donegal exited the provincial championship with a deal less bruising than Armagh – going out in extra time against Down. It’s unlikely that Donegal will have Armagh’s tactical measure in quite the same way Monaghan did, and with home advantage I believe that Armagh will deliver a structured organized performance more akin to their Derry win than their Monaghan defeat. The draw is a big runner here. Market watchers will note we’ve ducked it and fattened John Joe Doherty’s side.

Antrim have been one of the movers in the early betting market as we cut them from 15/8 in to 7/4 to get the better of Kildare. A line of form through Offaly on the challenge circuit suggests that Antrim are in better condition than the Lilywhites, and that the issues exposed by Louth against Kildare have not yet been resolved. Kildare look nothing like their 2009 version as this could well be the end of their summer.

The closest betting heat of the first round qualifiers sees Cavan meet Wicklow at Breffni Park. These two sides met last year in the qualifiers – though in Aughrim rather than Cavan – and by all accounts it was a dark day for Cavan in terms of their application to the game. Tommy Carr has overhauled the panel since that day and I think Cavan will progress in this one.
Punt On!

So, it’s beginning hot up here in South Africa, even literally with the bitter cold of last week now having passed, at least during the day time. That means crunch time for some of the sides that fancy themselves as contenders but aren’t necessarily viewed that way by neutrals. England and Germany sort of spring to mind.

Unlike the Germans, it’s generally been pretty safe to write the English off down the years but their repeated claims to be capable of making a serious impact this time around will become slightly more credible if they can beat their old rivals in Bloemfontein on Sunday.

Joachim Low and co. seemed pretty concerned by the threat on Friday although there is a lingering doubt about the fitness of Bastian Schweinsteiger with a day to go before kick off and the absence of the Bayern Munich midfielder would leave them very heavily reliant on newcomers to the side in central midfield, something that might open the door for Frank Lampard to finally impose himself on a game at this tournament.

The bigger questions for the English, though, are at the front of the back. Wayne Rooney had a decent first half against the Slovenians then pretty much stopped playing prior to being taken off. Fabio Capello really can’t afford the Manchester United to take another half day at the Free State stadium.

Neither can he afford Matthew Upson to look quite so unsure of himself when in possession around his own area as he did against the Slovenians who, despite being dominated for long spells last Wednesday, managed almost as many shots on target as a team that consider themselves would be champions.

All told, it should be a good game with the English in the rather unusual position of having the more experienced and proven collection of players. In the circumstances, in fact, it mightn’t actually be the worst thing that could happen them if it all came down to penalties but you do wonder whether they would be mentally up to stepping out of the shadow of history. One of my colleagues here had a drink with some Germans the other day who joked about them all going to penalty taking school from the age of three back at home and somewhere, deep down, you get the sense that the English might just believe it’s true.

As it happens, I’ve yet to see the Germans in the flesh and haven’t even managed to pay terribly close attention to any of their games as I was working through the first two and waiting for a flight out of Port Elizabeth the other night as they beat Ghana. What I have seen has impressed me, though, and the accounts I read of the Serbia game suggested that they played well enough in defeat that day.

Their new generation seem to be brimming with confidence – “they know no fear,” Mark Lawrenson used to always say about up and coming stars like that when I used to ghost write his stuff for the Irish Times – and they’ll relish the prospect of adding their names to the greats who have broken English hearts at various tournaments stretching back to 1966.

The two sides have met nine times in competitive games since then and though it’s notionally two apiece in terms of results after 90 minutes, the Germans have prevailed in all three that have been decided by penalties of extra time.

On balance, my hunch is that they’ll go through again but there’s no reason to suspect that it won’t be tight again so I’m going to ignore the straight match betting and go for them and the USA, who play Ghana today, to progress to the quarter finals, by whatever means.

Bet

€30 double on USA to progress against Ghana and Germany to progress against England @ 3.66.

The Derby Festival continues with another seven-race card on Saturday kicking off at the earlier time of 1.15, and the Group 1 Audi Pretty Polly Stakes is a worthy centrepiece.

Dar Re Mi took the 1m2f event twelve months ago en route to even better things and Remember When and Chinese White could be the two to concentrate on in the 2010 renewal. The first-named is still a maiden but has a very similar profile to that wonderfully tough filly Peeping Fawn, who landed the prize in 2007. She ought to appreciate the drop back to today’s trip after appearing to not quite last out the 1m4f when third in the Oaks at Epsom earlier this month. Her chief older rival is in foal to Cape Cross and a breakthrough success at the top level would represent a fitting climax to what has already been an excellent career.

Profound Beauty looked as good as ever when seeing off subsequent Gold Cup runner-up Age Of Aquarius on her seasonal bow in the Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown last month and looks to have good prospects of repeating last year’s victory in the At The Races Curragh Cup. The Melbourne Cup, in which she was an honourable fifth two years ago, is once again the long-term target for the six year-old, who probably has most to fear from British raiders Saptapadi and Tactic today.

Recharge gained an overdue win when taking a Listed event at Leopardstown on his most recent outing and sets a good standard in the Group 3 International Stakes, while Puttore, Wild Wind and Light Footsteps could be the trio to concentrate on in what has the look of a hot two year-old fillies maiden.

My shortlist of four for tomorrow’s Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.  (There are 20 runners, surely you’re allowed at least four.)

Deauville Flyer

10 out of 10 for originality, fair play, he’s the 4/1 favourite, but he has to be on your shortlist now that he has made it into the race, number 20 in a field of 20, although Cosmic Sun has come out now so Aaim To Prosper gets in as number 21 of, er, 20.  Deauville Flyer looked very good in winning a handicap at York two weeks ago on only his second ever attempt at two miles, staying on really well to win impressively. The handicapper gave him 11lb for that, but because the Northumberland Plate is an early-closing race, he races tomorrow under just a 5lb penalty, so he is effectively 6lb well-in. Hopefully Robert Winston will have enough energy left in his body to ride a finish after he gets down to 8st 2lb and sits on a postage stamp that weighs no more than 1lb.  Unless he’s going to chop his left leg off instead.  Winston’s lowest riding weight in the last 12 months is 8st 6lb, so he probably hasn’t eaten since Tuesday.

Crackentorp

The other Tim Easterby-trained horse, Crackentorp ran really well to chase home Hanoverian Baron in a hot 12-furlong handicap at York in May, and he performed more than adequately when stepped up to two miles for the first time at Haydock two weeks later when he finished third behind Dayia.  It had rained that day at Haydock, and the ground was probably easier than he would have wanted it on his first attempt at the marathon distance, when a bump just off the home turn didn’t help.  He ran well again on his latest start in a lady riders’ race run over 12 furlongs at York last time when he chased too fast a pace, yet was still able to stay on well to finish third.  He should be suited by stepping back up to two miles, and he remains on a mark of 92, a mark off which he should be very competitive.  He will appreciate the ground and he is well drawn in stall two.

Bernie The Bolt

Bernie The Bolt is Andrew Balding’s second string according to current betting, but it may be that he should be a shorter price than his stable companion Chiberta King, who is plenty high enough in the ratings on a mark of 102.  Bernie The Bolt was disappointing on his only run this season in the Chester Cup, but he was drawn poorly that day, and he apparently wasn’t working well in the lead up to the race.  He has reportedly worked a lot better this week, and he looked very good in winning the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket last September when he was stepped up to two and a quarter miles.  He is 7lb higher now than he was then, but he is progressive, he is lightly-raced, he is a thorough stayer, and he could be a fair bit better than his current mark of 94.  He is well drawn, he is bred for stamina, Andrew Balding’s horses are flying and, in David Probert, he has one of the more talented young riders in the weigh room these days for company.

Rajik

Charlie Swan’s gelding was nicely progressive around this time last season.  A staying-on third behind Vivacious Vivienne in a 12-furlong handicap at The Curragh at the end of last month, he ran a lot better than his finishing position in eighth place suggests in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting 11 days ago.  He was very far back in the field that day, but stayed on nicely up the home straight to be nearest at the finish.  He can be ridden closer to the pace tomorrow, and the longer home straight should suit.  He gets to race off his Ascot mark and, although there is a chance that this race will come up too quickly after his Ascot exertions, it is encouraging that two of the last three winners of the Northumberland Plate, Juniper Girl and Som Tala, had run in the Ascot Stakes.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby weekend gets under way with the now traditional evening fixture on Friday, a seven-race programme featuring what on paper has the look of a high-class renewal of the Listed Ballygallon Stud (Balanchine) Stakes.

Moonlit Garden, who created such a good impression when bolting up on her debut at flat headquarters on Guineas weekend, is the likely favourite but Dermot Weld’s filly is making a quick reappearance after contesting the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. The daughter of Exceed And Excel was badly handicapped by the draw on that occasion, and having not fared especially well in that department this evening may have to give best to course and distance maiden winner Seeharn. Kevin Prendergast has an abundance of talent in the juvenile division this season and his representative here, who justified strong market support last time, is nicely berthed in stall two.

The 1m2f Ladbrokes.com Handicap is an ultra-competitive affair, with many of the principals in tremendous form of late, and perhaps Prendergast’s previous course winner Musical Rain can gain compensation for a narrow defeat at Limerick earlier this month. The prolific Ghetto Gospel is likely to benefit from the return to this shorter trip after contesting last Saturday’s Ulster Derby and could well be involved if the race doesn’t come too soon.

The Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Derby offers an opportunity for some of the country’s top young riding talents to showcase their skills, and the promising Leigh Roche is likely to fancy his chances on the lightly-raced and well-drawn Easy Mate.

Of all the games taking place this weekend, none will be as fraught with emotion as the tie in Newbridge between Kildare and Antrim. Dublin and Meath is always a classic rivalry, Sligo feel as if they are on the cusp of achieving something special in Pearse Stadium and Westmeath and Louth each have a wonderful opportunity to go farther than anyone would have thought likely, but the death this week of Dermot Earley senior has given a new level of gravitas to Saturday’s qualifier clash in St. Conleth’s Park.

Earley’s status as a legend of the game is set in stone and if a poll were to be taken asking who was the greatest ever footballer never to win an All Ireland, he would surely rank at or near the top of the list. His own achievements took place in the primrose and blue colours of his native Roscommon, however the former chief of staff of the Irish Army has long been a resident of Kildare and Dermot junior has enjoyed a fine career in the Kildare colours.

Despite the GAA making it clear that they were amenable to facilitating a postponement in the circumstances, this qualifier tie takes place at the request of the Earley family and there can be no question that the Kildare squad will be absolutely single minded in their drive to put in a performance worthy of the occasion. However the simple fact of the matter is that their form this year hasn’t been up to the required standard and right now Antrim are simply operating at a higher level. With two successive promotions, an All Ireland win for St Gall’s and a much improved record in Ulster Championship football, the graph has all been going the one direction for Antrim football in the past eighteen months and they may have passed out a Kildare team that appear to be going the other way.

Kieran McGeeney was hailed as the saviour of Kildare football when he took over, however many of those close to the set up are beginning to realise that Paul Grimley was a crucial ingredient in the whole mix. Grimley is now gone to Monaghan, who have improved even further, while Kildare have lost their defensive edge and simply aren’t operating on the same level as last year. Even in recent challenge matches, there has been no comparison in form. Kildare have been struggling to get out of third gear while Antrim have been little short of devastating, recording big wins over Down and Offaly among others.

Initially Off the Ground had planned on having the biggest bet of the year on this tie, but the Earley factor tempers that somewhat in that it may yet prove the catalyst for Kildare to get back to form. It’s unlikely that they’ll be able to simply switch themselves on as simply as that, but emotion is a huge factor and there will be no shortage of that.

At the risk of sounding heartless however, it’s still well worth a 3pt stake at 10/11 on Antrim plus two points. Footballing form is still the best grounds for making a betting call and looking at the game in that light, this one is ideally set up for the Saffrons to cause what the media will believe is a minor shock but won’t surprise too many who have been keeping an eye on how the two teams have progressed.

With the big Irish Derby fixture getting under way tomorrow the fare at Tipperary’s Thursday evening card is understandably somewhat more low-key, but there are nevertheless a few interesting contests for punters to consider.

The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Race at 7.50 is perhaps the highest-quality event of the seven-race programme, and the unbeaten Julies Jet appears likely to start a short-priced favourite. John Oxx’s well-bred daughter of Cape Cross indicated she could have a bright future when capturing a maiden at today’s venue in October and if fully tuned up for her reappearance may have too much firepower for the admirable Kaitlins Joy and Shaimaa.

Oxx’s Zanoubiya is likely to be a major fancy for the 1m4f maiden at 8.20 after a perfectly satisfactory return to action in a similar race at Fairyhouse, while useful dual purpose performer Schelm catches the eye in the concluding 1m6f amateur riders handicap with Nina Carberry booked for the mount.

Machaputo was rather a costly failure when managing only a well-beaten fourth on his debut at Down Royal earlier this month, but it could be significant that Tommy Stack is happy to let the Elusive Quality colt take on third home Port Elizabeth once again in the opening 5f maiden now that he has the benefit of that outing under his belt.

Interesting market moves on Sunday’s Irish Derby.  They put Jan Vermeer in as favourite yesterday when the five-day declarations were in, which was understandable.  The Montjeu colt was sent off as favourite for the Epsom Derby,  and he didn’t perform too badly in finishing fourth there off what was probably a rushed preparation.  It almost certainly wouldn’t have been Aidan O’Brien’s first choice to use the Gallinule Stakes, just 13 days before Epsom, as his prep.

The other Ballydoyle horses, Midas Touch and Cape Blanco, fell into line behind Jan Vermeer, but they weren’t sure what to do with Monterosso.  The Mark Johnston-trained colt had been supplemented to the tune of €125,000, so obviously the trainer and the owner, Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum (ring a bell?), feel that he has a chance.

It is strange to think that this fellow got beaten in a handicap at Newbury just over a month ago off a mark of 88.  A run in the Irish Derby was poor value at 1000/1 at that stage.  Since then, however, he has won a handicap at Newmarket, and then, of course, he stepped up on anything he had ever done before in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, the Ascot Derby, when he ran out a really impressive winner.

The handicapper now says that he is worth a mark of 117, and that puts him right into the mix.  Jan Vermeer is rated 119, At First Sight is 118, Cape Blanco is 115, Midas Touch is 112.  He is actually the third highest-rated horse in the race, and the second highest, At First Sight, may not run.

The bookmakers stood and stared at Monterosso for a little while.  3/1 said Ladbrokes, 6/1 said Victor Chandler.  They both couldn’t be right.  As usual, the truth lay somewhere between the two, and a point of equilibrium has now been reached around the 7/2 mark, although Ladbrokes are sticking steadfastly to their 3/1 quote while Bet365 are going 4/1.There have been other significant fluctuations.  Some firms went as low as 2/1 about Jan Vermeer, but Paddy Power stood out with their offer of 100/30.  Inevitably, the money came.  (It is a marketplace after all, where supply rises to meet demand.)  11/4 by the close of play yesterday, said Paddy Power, 5/2 this morning at 10 o’clock, 9/4 by 11.30.  But a strange thing was happening in parallel – there was money for Cape Blanco.

You never know what to make of these Ballydoyle market moves, but this one looked significant, as if he had gone inside Starspangledbanner’s time for the second last furlong in a piece of work this morning.  From as big as 5/1 yesterday with William Hill, the Galileo colt is now as low as 5/2 in places and no bigger than 4/1 anywhere.  The reaction (every action has one, didn’t you know) has seen Jan Vermeer drift a little, back out to 11/4 in places.

It’s difficult to know what to make of it all, what the Ballydoyle pecking order will be, what Johnny Murtagh will ride, which is a crucial piece of information given that Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner of the Irish Derby for the last four years, and for six of the last nine, and that the winner five years ago, Hurricane Run, although trained by Andre Fabre, carried a set of Coolmore Connection silks.  However, don’t forget that Seamie Heffernan won the Irish Derby on Frozen Fire in 2008 when Murtagh chose to ride Alessandro Volta, and on Soldier Of Fortune in 2007 when Kieren Fallon chose Eagle Mountain.  There’s a long way to go in this one even before we get to the starting gate.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

After his great week at Royal Ascot, Johnny Murtagh is a notable absentee from this evening’s midweek fixture at Naas and the likes of Wayne Lordan and Fran Berry will be looking to take full advantage of the champion jockey’s suspension.

Lordan in particular has a good book of rides to look forward to, the pick of them possibly the promising Gala Spirit in the 7f fillies maiden. Murtagh was the man in the saddle when the daughter of Invincible Spirit took an eye-catching fourth behind the Lordan-partnered School Holidays on her racecourse bow in a Fairyhouse maiden that has already thrown up a couple of subsequent winners earlier this month and any improvement on that ought to make her very hard to beat.

The winner of the aforementioned contest attempts to follow up in the 1m three year-old handicap, and having been left on a mark of 78 she is likely to be in the thick of the action once again despite a high draw. Masela has fared even worse on the draw front but is nevertheless another intriguing handicap debutant.

Berry’s decision to stick with Curragh runner-up Nidian, a full-brother to top sprinter Namid, in the 6f 3yo+ maiden allows Lordan to pick up the spare on another well-bred type in Tweedy. Eddie Lynam’s charge shaped nicely on her introduction last week in an admittedly weaker race and with plenty of improvement likely it could be pretty close between them.

Champion National Hunt trainer Willie Mullins has been rather quiet under both codes of late, but the Closutton handler sends out a very interesting contender for the 1m6f handicap, the second of seven races at Ballinrobe this evening.

The horse in question is De Senectute, who has shown little ability for Ger Lyons or Robert Tyner but is now with a yard that has turned several of its acquisitions inside out over the past twelve months or so. The fact that Pat Smullen has been booked for the mount provides further reason to expect a much-improved effort from the son of In The Wings, whose chief rival may be course and distance scorer Lus Na Hoiche.

With €18,000 up for grabs, the 1m1f fillies handicap at 7.10 is the feature event on the card and Silly Dancer looks sure to run a big race having shaped well at Naas and particularly Leopardstown on her last two starts. Ado McGuinness’ filly has dropped below her last winning mark and may have most to fear from Little Bug and the unexposed Fortunas Blade.

McGuinness is two-handed in the 1m1f apprentice handicap at 8.20, with the inconsistent Blue Cross Boy probably the pick of his duo. Insomnitas and Cool Athlete are others to consider in a very ordinary contest.

Lady Songbird didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs when a close-up sixth at Limerick earlier this month and is likely to be on the premises at the business end of yet another 1m1f handicap at 7.50.