Archive for June, 2010

Fairyhouse preview

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

1000 Guineas fourth Sent From Heaven spearheads a strong British challenge for this evening’s Brownstown Stakes, centrepiece of another seven race card at Fairyhouse.

Barry Hills’ filly was unquestionably favoured by the draw when fourth at Newmarket and has since been well beaten in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. However this represents a significant drop in class and she looks sure to be involved, as does Brian Smart’s Distinctive, who gave the impression this trip would suit her better when third to compatriot Gilt Edge Girl in Leopardstown’s Ballyogan Stakes. Bewitched, representing last year’s winning trainer Charles O’Brien, and Naas scorer Kitty Kiernan could prove the pick of the home defence.

With Friday’s impressive Curragh scorer Spelterini a late defector, perhaps Monteriggioni can register a long overdue victory in the 1m2f 60-100 handicap. The top-weight was out of his depth in Listed company last time but had previously pushed Book Of Numbers close in a similar event at Gowran Park.

Accidental Outlaw gave the impression his turn was not far away when a fast-finishing third at Leopardstown last time and should be hard to beat in the 1m2f 47-75 handicap, while Camira is well-treated in the 7f handicap after a fine effort at the Curragh on Friday evening.

Cheltenham thoughts in June

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

Strange to be researching a Cheltenham feature in the middle of the summer, when the ground in your back garden (unwatered) is firm to hard, the temperature is scraping 22 degrees, maybe 23, rain is so scarce that you have to water your new Mimosa tree every second evening, and your main racing thoughts are of the Eclipse and the King George (a mile and a half flat race at Ascot, not a three-mile chase at Kempton), but it still takes months rather than days to turn a television programme around apparently, so needs must.

Favourite Cheltenham moment?  It’s a four-way photo between Dawn Run and Moscow Flyer and Kicking King and War Of Attrition, but the mare just gets up.  So where were you when Peter O’Sullevan uttered those words?  Where were you when the mare began to get up, and wrested the Gold Cup back from Wayward Lad, who would have traded at 1.02 had Betfair been more than an embryo in Andrew Black’s head at the time?  At the top of the uncovered stands, binoculars long-since abandoned, not because the left lens wouldn’t focus properly, but because you couldn’t hold them steady for all that your heart was pounding and your hands were shaking?  Or standing on the lawn, trying to see through the higher heads in front of you, straining your ears to listen to the commentary, ecstatic as you saw Jonjo’s red body flash past behind the sea of hats, and knowing that there was a chance?  Nope.  Down the back of the chemistry lab, actually, with a yellow transistor radio pressed to your ear, confident that the whole distillation of water experiment would hold Mr Kelly’s attention for at least seven minutes.

“What’s going on over there?”

“Dawn Run just won the Gold Cup sir.”

Detention at least, maybe a note home to your parents.  Still, it would be worth it, the mare had won the Gold Cup, and that wasn’t going to change.

“Oh good.  What price was she?”

We are used to nine and 10 Irish winners at Cheltenham these days.  We had five in 2007, and we were disappointed.  Seven this year was all right, we’ll take it, but only just.  No Gold Cup winner, no Champion Hurdle winner, and if one of the seven hadn’t been Big Zeb’s win in the Champion Chase, we probably would have been disgusted.

How quickly we forget the dark days, not that long ago even now.  Galmoy flew the Irish flag on his own in 1987 and 1988, and in 1989, when John Mulhern’s gelding just couldn’t get his 10-year-old body past Rustle in his gallant attempt to land the hat-trick in the Stayers’ Hurdle, there were no Irish-trained winners at Cheltenham.  Not one.  Zip.

When we think of the Champion Hurdle, we think that it is ours to win.  Seven wins in nine renewals will do that to you, and the fact that we haven’t won any of the last three doesn’t rest easy.  We’re overdue.  Again, forgetting the dark days.  We didn’t win the Champion Hurdle at all between Dawn Run in 1984 and Istabraq in 1998.  That’s 14 years.  We didn’t win the Gold Cup between Dawn Run in 1986 and Imperial Call in 1996, and we didn’t win it again until Kicking King came along in 2005.  Nor did we win the Champion Chase between Buck House in 1986 and Klairon Davis in 1996, nor the Sun Alliance Chase between Antarctic Bay in 1985 and Florida Pearl in 1998.

These are good days. Hopefully the bad days will get more remote as time moves on.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Drive for Five still very much alive

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

It has been mentioned previously in this column that of all Brian Cody’s achievements at the helm of what is unquestionably the greatest team ever to take to a hurling field, the fact that we are now potentially less than ten weeks away from a five in a row and Kilkenny remain one of the least talked about hurling teams in the country must surely rank up there with the best of them. It is only right that great games like the two matches between Galway and Offaly should be celebrated, while Cork’s return to eminence is also good news and worthy of note. However none of this takes from the fact that based on the championship so far, Kilkenny remain way out in front of the chasing pack and any contender who does dethrone them will be pulling off an upset worthy of comparison with the time when a wonderful piece of wristy hurling from David breached Goliath’s previously unsullied defence. Yet to read many of the papers in this country, Kilkenny are an afterthought, not worthy of discussion just yet.

In Munster, Tipperary’s torpor sent them into the morass of the qualifiers and many of the bright young prospects that set their season alight in 2009 appear to be showing early signs of suffering from the dreaded sophomore slump. Of course it is way too early to dismiss such a talented group of hurlers and this column suspects that Wexford are in for a ferocious backlash this weekend, but constructing a team to dismantle this Kilkenny unit requires a clear plan and a co-ordinated effort. To maintain that cohesion after Cork rocked the county to it’s very foundations in Páirc Uí Chaoimh will be no easy task.

Cork are of course improving and it would be foolish to read anything into the game against Limerick, however it is difficult to see them having enough of a fitness edge on Kilkenny to impose their unique brand of short range hurling and support play. Put simply, their style only works if the opposition cannot compete from a fitness point of view, which is a huge gamble. The supersized attack of Michael Cussen and Aisake Ó’hAilpín is all the rage right now but they don’t bring anything that we haven’t seen from the likes of Dan Shanahan, Brian Begley, Micháel Webster and others in recent seasons, or indeed what players like Iarlaith Tannion bring to the table right now. They have a huge distance to travel to get to All Ireland standard and though their record under Denis Walsh commands respect, it’s a lot to expect them to overcome Kilkenny.

Waterford are also well advanced in the championship in that they now have two shots at reaching an All Ireland semi final, but they just don’t seem to have replaced their ageing golden generation with players of the necessary calibre. They are making do in a lot of sectors and unusually for Waterford teams over the past five years, they look vulnerable down the spine of the team.

Outside of Munster, Galway were perceived as the most likely challengers but people are fleeing the Galway bandwagon in the aftermath of their laboured dismissal of an improving but moderate Offaly team. This Offaly native was as surprised as anyone to see how resolutely Joe Dooley’s men competed in difficult circumstances in Croke Park and in Portlaoise and it goes without saying that questions have to be asked about why Galway failed to close out two matches which were there to be won easily if they stepped on the gas at the right time.

With David Burke suspended, a player whose work ethic puts a lot of the fuel in the Galway engine, it’s difficult to see Galway overcome the Cats this weekend. Kilkenny will put the Galway midfield on the back foot and the Tribesmen have been used to enjoying dominance in that sector. It’s also difficult to see the Westerners get too much traction under their own puckout, an area where Offaly enjoyed absolute supremacy in the two meetings between the counties. The crucial difference here is the end result – Joe Brady plays an important part in the Offaly set up but there’s little danger of offeending the big Coolderry man in saying that he doesn’t quite pose as much of a threat with ball in hand as Henry Shefflin.

The interesting aspect of all this however is that these are areas where Galway should improve as the year goes on. Their improvement from week to week in between Offaly games was even notable – while Galway got the rub of the green in Croke Park, that luck was returned to Offaly on Saturday evening when a four or five point win for the Tribesmen would have been fair.

Tipperary have the raw material if they can overcome the jolt of losing in the Munster championship while Cork and Galway are both raw but dangerous, however right now all these teams have proved is that they still have a long way to go before they get to the standard of potential All Ireland winners. Kilkenny at 5/6 might not be the kind of price that people like to bet on antepost markets, but realistically it’s probably a fair or even perhaps a generous reflection of how the drive for five remains on course.

Drive for Five still very much alive

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

It has been mentioned previously in this column that of all Brian Cody’s achievements at the helm of what is unquestionably the greatest team ever to take to a hurling field, the fact that we are now potentially less than ten weeks away from a five in a row and Kilkenny remain one of the least talked about hurling teams in the country must surely rank up there with the best of them. It is only right that great games like the two matches between Galway and Offaly should be celebrated, while Cork’s return to eminence is also good news and worthy of note. However none of this takes from the fact that based on the championship so far, Kilkenny remain way out in front of the chasing pack and any contender who does dethrone them will be pulling off an upset worthy of comparison with the time when a wonderful piece of wristy hurling from David breached Goliath’s previously unsullied defence. Yet to read many of the papers in this country, Kilkenny are an afterthought, not worthy of discussion just yet.

In Munster, Tipperary’s torpor sent them into the morass of the qualifiers and many of the bright young prospects that set their season alight in 2009 appear to be showing early signs of suffering from the dreaded sophomore slump. Of course it is way too early to dismiss such a talented group of hurlers and this column suspects that Wexford are in for a ferocious backlash this weekend, but constructing a team to dismantle this Kilkenny unit requires a clear plan and a co-ordinated effort. To maintain that cohesion after Cork rocked the county to it’s very foundations in Páirc Uí Chaoimh will be no easy task.

Cork are of course improving and it would be foolish to read anything into the game against Limerick, however it is difficult to see them having enough of a fitness edge on Kilkenny to impose their unique brand of short range hurling and support play. Put simply, their style only works if the opposition cannot compete from a fitness point of view, which is a huge gamble. The supersized attack of Michael Cussen and Aisake Ó’hAilpín is all the rage right now but they don’t bring anything that we haven’t seen from the likes of Dan Shanahan, Brian Begley, Micháel Webster and others in recent seasons, or indeed what players like Iarlaith Tannion bring to the table right now. They have a huge distance to travel to get to All Ireland standard and though their record under Denis Walsh commands respect, it’s a lot to expect them to overcome Kilkenny.

Waterford are also well advanced in the championship in that they now have two shots at reaching an All Ireland semi final, but they just don’t seem to have replaced their ageing golden generation with players of the necessary calibre. They are making do in a lot of sectors and unusually for Waterford teams over the past five years, they look vulnerable down the spine of the team.

Outside of Munster, Galway were perceived as the most likely challengers but people are fleeing the Galway bandwagon in the aftermath of their laboured dismissal of an improving but moderate Offaly team. This Offaly native was as surprised as anyone to see how resolutely Joe Dooley’s men competed in difficult circumstances in Croke Park and in Portlaoise and it goes without saying that questions have to be asked about why Galway failed to close out two matches which were there to be won easily if they stepped on the gas at the right time.

With David Burke suspended, a player whose work ethic puts a lot of the fuel in the Galway engine, it’s difficult to see Galway overcome the Cats this weekend. Kilkenny will put the Galway midfield on the back foot and the Tribesmen have been used to enjoying dominance in that sector. It’s also difficult to see the Westerners get too much traction under their own puckout, an area where Offaly enjoyed absolute supremacy in the two meetings between the counties. The crucial difference here is the end result – Joe Brady plays an important part in the Offaly set up but there’s little danger of offeending the big Coolderry man in saying that he doesn’t quite pose as much of a threat with ball in hand as Henry Shefflin.

The interesting aspect of all this however is that these are areas where Galway should improve as the year goes on. Their improvement from week to week in between Offaly games was even notable – while Galway got the rub of the green in Croke Park, that luck was returned to Offaly on Saturday evening when a four or five point win for the Tribesmen would have been fair.

Tipperary have the raw material if they can overcome the jolt of losing in the Munster championship while Cork and Galway are both raw but dangerous, however right now all these teams have proved is that they still have a long way to go before they get to the standard of potential All Ireland winners. Kilkenny at 5/6 might not be the kind of price that people like to bet on antepost markets, but realistically it’s probably a fair or even perhaps a generous reflection of how the drive for five remains on course.

Sligo preview

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Flat action makes a welcome return to Sligo on Tuesday evening, and the combination of good weather and an interesting seven race card ought to attract a decent crowd to the picturesque Cleveragh Park venue.

The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap is the most valuable event down for decision, and has brought together a host of in-form contenders. Easy Down Royal maiden scorer Dreamalittledream appears likely to head the market, while Miss Eze will also have her supporters after ending Sean Og Coulston’s winning streak at Limerick eleven days ago. However perhaps the unexposed Dundrum Dancer can see them off, David Marnane’s charge having really caught the eye over a furlong shorter at Cork on her handicap debut.

De Senectute became the latest in a long line of horses to have joined Willie Mullins which have stepped up markedly on previous form when hacking up at Ballinrobe last week and Wee Giant may well follow suit in the concluding 1m4f handicap. The son of Giant’s Causeway lost his way last season after winning a maiden as a juvenile for Kevin Ryan and has been given a real chance by the handicapper.

Solent Ridge deservedly got his turn after several solid efforts in defeat when romping home at Naas last Wednesday and should go well again despite a 10lb hike in the 6 1/2f 47-65 handicap, while Aseasyas and Dragons Den look two of the likelier types in an open 1m2f claimer.

Like meeting Martin Hansson, backing Japan in Asian handicap has strangely good feel about it

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Had to travel up early today to a referees’ open day where I came across Martin Hansson, the Swedish official whose error contributed to Ireland not being here. Much to my disappointment he seems to be one of the nicest people I’ve ever met.

Anyway, between the travel, the time spent chatting to him and other referees and the fact that the Japan games kicks off here in a couple of hours I’m even more up the creek for time than usual. Having bet on today’s games late last night, however, I had better record what I’m at for fear that I be accused of making it up afterwards in the event that things go well (as they did yesterday, I’m glad to say, when Slovakia’s 94th minute penalty helped me to a handy profit).

So, today I’m going for Japan in the Asian handicap (appropriately enough) with Spain to beat Portugal in the 90 minutes. Haven’t seen too much of the Japanese so far but what I have caught has been quite impressive and still really not convinced by Paraguay who may be starting to feel that they’ve already succeeded here in South Africa.

As for the Spanish, they look to have more quality in just about every department than their neighbours although they could do with getting Fernando Torres scoring. He has looked short of confidence and they will need him if David Villa were to get injured again before the final

Bet

€25 double on Japan (0/+0.5) to beat Paraguay and Spain to beat Portugal @ 4.24.

Draw conclusions

Monday, June 28th, 2010

There was much to mull over this weekend at The Curragh, like the increased attendance from 23,237 last year to 24,194 this year, and if my uncle had gone to The Curragh with his son instead of to Croke Park, to see Louth make it into the Leinster Final for the first time since they built the second bridge over the Boyne, then it would have been up by another one or two, depending on whether under-12s count in attendance figures or not.
 
Betting with the bookmakers was down, continuing the worrying trend, but betting with the Tote was up over €40,000 on last year.  There aren’t many upward curves in Irish racing these days, but this was one, and it is to be noted.
 
There was also Cape Blanco, obviously, the fifth time on the trot that Aidan O’Brien had won Ireland’s premier Classic and the third time in nine years that he was responsible for the first three home.  It’s an incredible training feat, and another that should be noted and fully appreciated.

And there was the draw.  It is fairly common knowledge that it is generally an advantage to be drawn low on the straight track at The Curragh, but I’m not sure that the extent of the advantage is fully appreciated.  It was there in all its glory this weekend.  It was quite incredible actually.

Over the course of the weekend, there were six races run on the straight track over five, six and six and a half furlongs.  The six races had fields of nine, 17, nine, 12, seven and 25 respectively, yet five of them were won by the horse that was drawn in stall one, and the other was won by the horse that was drawn in stall two.

It was quite an incredible run of results, including winners at 20/1 and 16/1.  As well as that, all of the runners-up were drawn in stall six or lower, and three of the six third-placed horses were drawn in stall four or lower. If you had had €1 each-way on every horse in the six races that was drawn lower than five, you would have made a net profit of over €85. 

It is not quite clear why this is.  Perhaps, when the ground is fast at The Curragh and they water the track, it may be that the watering system doesn’t allow them pour as much water on the section that is closest to the stands rail as on the rest of the track.  Certainly, a couple of the trainers on Sunday seemed to think that there was a fast strip of ground under the stands rail. 

Of course, this bias is worth noting for future meetings at The Curragh this summer.  Also worth noting are some of the horses who raced out in the centre of the track in the sprints, like Hawkeyethenoo, Novellan Lad, Lough Mist and Picadilly Filly.  They all probably performed a fair bit better than the bare results suggest. 

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Monaghan’s efficiency overshadowed by Meath magic

Monday, June 28th, 2010

Football followers were spoilt for choice at the weekend with plenty of action all across the country, spread over the two days of the weekend. Meath’s heroics in Croke Park certainly caught the eye and the Royals have shot up the betting to trade as 10/1 fourth favourites for the big prize, an understandable reaction to a stunning victory. These odds were undoubtedly helped by the dire fare that was on display in the second game at Croke Park when both Louth and Westmeath proved that neither county could have got anywhere close to a provincial final if it weren’t for the lopsided draw. Meath’s place in an All Ireland quarter final is all but assured and they will now get to finish out the year in the familiar surroundings of Croke Park.

Meath may have all but assured their sustained progression in the championship into August, but this column was equally as impressed with the clinical nature of Monaghan’s performance against Fermanagh. Having despatched Armagh in very stylish fashion in the Ulster championship quarter final, Sunday’s match was perfectly set up for Fermanagh to deliver an ambush against a heavily fancied Monaghan team who could easily have fallen into the trap of taking their neighbours for granted.

Farney supporters need not have worried about such an eventuality as Monaghan were absolutely devastating for the first three quarters of the game, killing Fermanagh off before stepping off the gas in the closing stages. There is a gulf in quality between the two neighbouring counties, but local rivalries often have a way of bridging such gaps and Fermanagh would have taken great heart from their win over Cavan in Breffni Park. For Monaghan to clear this hurdle with the minimum of fuss was extremely impressive by any measure.

Tyrone too were comfortable in their win over Down in the other provincial semi final, but Monaghan are clearly a cut above the Down men in terms of overall ability and form and right now they should be considered the front runners in the province, at least the match of Tyrone on form. Of course Tyrone’s level of experience and track record of Croke Park success means that they are by far the more likely of the two counties to win an All Ireland, but in a one off game in Clones, Monaghan are excellent value at 13/8 to win the Ulster championship. Tyrone’s comfortable display against Down was built around complete control of the midfield sector, something they are extremely unlikely to enjoy against a big and aggressive Monaghan team, anchored by Owen Lennon and Dick Clerkin. The rise of Conor McManus as a scoring threat to take some of the focus off Tommy Freeman has been absolutely huge in terms of the team’s development, while Seamus McEnaney’s decision to bring on board Paul Grimley is clearly having a significant beneficial effect.

Tyrone do hold an advantage in terms of strength in depth, however Monaghan have one or two high class subs that will make an impact as well and unless the injury list gets added to in the coming days, they look well set to cause Tyrone plenty of problems.

The national league game between these two counties ended up in a narrow win for the Monaghan men and at 13/8, it’s well worth a 3pt outright bet on the boys in blue delivering a second blow to Mickey Harte’s All Ireland challenge and taking the Anglo Celt Cup in the process. Tyrone won’t go down easily here but Monaghan’s hunger to win a first Ulster title in 22 years is possibly the difference between two well matched sides.

Big guns looks set to keep on firing

Monday, June 28th, 2010

If there’s one real problem for the media here at this World Cup, it’s the travel. In Germany four years ago, we went everywhere by train and you could get a lot of work as you went but here it’s all a bit of scramble with groups of hacks squashed into cars for long trips: all of which only gets a mention because after four hours in a car to Bloemfontein yesterday I didn’t have time before kick-off to bet again on Germany following the USA’s defeat on Saturday. I don’t mind about the double, it’s helped the mood over here that there’s still an African country involved, but not winning a few quid on England’s exit has taken a tiny bit of the shine off it for me.

Anyway, I haven’t much time today either as the drive back didn’t end until the middle of the night and I’ve just woken up with a follow up on Fabio Capello to do before heading to Ellis Park for tonight’s Brazil game.

Som, to business: I fancy both Brazil and Holland to come through today. I still don’t think Slovakia are a particularly good team and I’m bewildered as to how the Italians could have been so bad as to go down to them the way they did but I suspect they’ll run out if steam, as so many teams do in these sorts of situations, when coming up against another big name after a very good win.

The Dutch are 2/5 to win in 90 minutes and so the Asian handicap looks slightly better value at around 1.65 with your money back if they win by one. In the end, though, I’m going to go for the game to produce three goals or more at slightly better than evens.

The Chileans, meanwhile, are a pretty decent side and should give their old rivals a bit of a game tonight. I still reckon Dunga’s side are looking good for the title, though, and can’t really see them being derailed by any but one of the other very best sides which should mean either the semis of finals.

They should have one if not both of the stars who misses the final group game back and they’ll be keen to make another statement I suspect after the big wins by Germany and, in particular, Argentina. They’re also odds on to wrap things up without the need for extra time which I’m not sure is that good a bet so here I’m going take the Asian handicap, also -1 but fractionally better than evens – and hope that the goals continue to flow.

Bet

€30 double on the Netherlands v Slovakia to produce three goals or more and Brazil (-1) to beat Chile @ 4.2.

Curragh Sunday preview

Sunday, June 27th, 2010

The marquee day in the Irish flat racing calendar has finally arrived, with Aidan O’Brien once again looking to hold the key to the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby in the absence of Epsom hero Workforce.

Eleven colts are set to line up for the premier classic, with the master of Ballydoyle five-handed as he bids for a record fifth consecutive victory and an eighth overall. Dante Stakes winner Midas Touch, who beat Workforce in the big York trial before disappointing in the Prix du Jockey Club last time, is the choice of Johnny Murtagh and looks set to dispute favouritism with supplemented Royal Ascot scorer Monterosso. Seamus Heffernan has twice been the beneficiary of the stable jockey’s wrong choice in recent years though and it would be no surprise were he to strike it lucky once again on the talented Jan Vermeer. The only previous Group 1 winner in the field, he was made favourite for the Derby on the strength of an impressive seasonal bow in the Gallinule Stakes only to lose both front shoes on the big day and deserves another chance to show his true worth.

O’Brien has captured a staggering nine of the last ten runnings of the Group 2 Railway Stakes and in Samuel Morse boasts solid prospects of maintaining his stranglehold in this year’s renewal. However with the likes of Clondinnery, Longhunter and Jeremy Noseda’s raider Formosina in opposition it will not be easy.

There are several ultra-competitive handicaps down for decision, including the richly-endowed National Lottery Sweepstake where Hawkeyethenoo will understandably be a popular choice after his unlucky defeat at Epsom when seeking a hat-trick. Mid Mon Lady should not be too far away in the concluding 1m4f event after a somewhat unlucky second at Down Royal last week, while Emperor Claudius could follow up Wednesday’s Naas success in the Listed Celebration Stakes.

Subscribe to Betdairy