With the World Cup looming I wasn’t too concerned about not getting sent to Madrid this weekend but the more I think about it the more I’m beginning to suspect that my irregular trips to Champions League finals have actually have come to an end. Saturday games are all very well for allowing kids to get along to watch but they are bugger all use to daily papers, particularly an Irish one with no meaningful connection to any of the teams taking part.

My first final was in 2001 in Milan where the game was utterly forgettable (Bayern eventually beat Valencia on penalties) but the setting and sense of occasion was terrific. At the time I thought I was all set to become a regular but for one reason or another I’ve only made two since, Paris in 2006 when Barcelona beat Arsenal and Moscow two year later where United overcame Chelsea, also on penalties.

The paper sends in part because when one or more English clubs are involved, the coverage we get from the Guardian can be a little unpalatable for an Irish audience –it’s the same reason most Irish papers or Irish edition of British ones are sending to South Africa – but a final between an Italian side and a German one with 24 hours or so to the deadline for the Monday paper, scarcely merits the expense of having your own person there.

As I do pretty much every year, I tried to buy tickets for this year’s final in the lottery run through Uefa.com but with two category 1 seats coming to around €600 and flights weighing in at something close to a grand for two, I was sort of happy enough to miss out in the end.

So, it’s a couple of hours on the couch tomorrow night when I kind of expect to see Jose Mourinho’s side edge things to complete a great season. I was at Stamford Bridge a few weeks back when they put Chelsea out and they were really impressive, strong at the back but quick and very fluent on the break. Against Barcelona, I thought they were far more negative and had the refereeing decisions in the first leg been better I think the champions probably would have gone on to qualify.

Bayern have been really good over the last few months and they certainly score a fair few goals with nobody successfully containing them in the Bundesliga since October but Franck Ribery is a major loss with his absence piling a lot of pressure on Arjen Robben to open the Italians up. His form on the way to the final suggests he just might do it but Inter’s predominantly South American defence has been the competition’s best this year and the winger is likely to have a difficult time of it.

Inter have been rattling in goals themselves of late too with 17 in the seven league since Roma beat them to revive the title race and behind Diego Milito and co. Wesley Schneider has been tremendous pulling the team’s strings from central midfield.

Ultimately, I just think they’re going to have too much between them for the Germans although whether they can win the game in 90 minutes remains to be seen. At 6/5, it’s a reasonable bet but the difference between that and 1.96 seems worth the sacrifice in return for half my money back in the event of a draw so that’s the (special) one for me.

Bets

€25 treble on Galway v UCD, Rovers, v Fingal and St Pats v Bohemians each to produce three goals or more (with money back in each instance in the event of there being two) @ 6.89.

€50 on Inter Milan (0/-0.5) to beat Bayern Munich

So who sponsors the Irish 2000 Guineas this year?

A: Boylesports

B: Entenmann’s

C: General Accident

D: Abu Dhabi

E: Airlie/Coolmore

F: None of the above

It’s a tricky one to solve (Saturday’s race, that is, not the who-sponsors-it puzzle, although that one isn’t so straightforward either without a Racing Post in front of you) simply because it is difficult to know what to do with some of those at the top of the market.

What do you do with Steinbeck? The Aidan O’Brien-trained colt was really impressive in winning his maiden on his racecourse debut at Naas last May, over a year ago now, beating last week’s Musidora runner-up Gold Bubbles into second place. The subject of glowing reports all summer, Johnny Murtagh chose to ride him in the Dewhurst on just his second ever start, in front of Beethoven, in front of Fencing Master, and he ran a cracker to finish fourth, looking a likely winner until well inside the final furlong.

They obviously still hold him in very high regard at Ballydoyle, but it has not been all plain sailing this season either, he was an early scratching from the Newmarket Guineas and the vibes about him early this week were not overly bullish. He could easily win on Saturday, he could be very good, but we know that the Ballydoyle three-year-old colts invariably come on for their seasonal debuts, albeit perhaps not as much in mid-May as in early April, and it would be a huge training performance if Aidan O’Brien could produce the Footstepsinthesand colt to win an Irish Guineas on his seasonal bow.

What do you do with Canford Cliffs? Another colt with a big reputation, it is remarkable to think that the son of Tagula hasn’t won since he blitzed his rivals in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last June, putting up one of the more memorable performances of the 2009 season. He was only just beaten in the Prix Morny by Arcano and Special Duty, and he hung inexplicably to his left on his debut this season when he got beaten by his stable companion Dick Turpin in the Greenham.

He put up what was probably the best performance of his career in finishing third in the Guineas at Newmarket, but Dick Turpin was in front of him in second place, and we just may have to accept now that his stable companion, runner-up in the French Guineas on Sunday, may simply be the better horse. Canford Cliffs raced at Newmarket as if he just about got a mile, so it is probable that Richard Hughes is going to have to smuggle him along for most of the stiffer mile at The Curragh. With Keredari and Oasis Dancer and a host of potential Ballydoyle pacemakers in the line-up, it is unlikely that there will be any hanging around. Whatever wins the race is going to have to stay the trip well, that’s almost certain.

What do you do with Keredari, thrice-raced, highly-regarded by John Oxx (“If we have a three-year-old this year, it’s Keredari.”) and Fran Berry, so impressive in winning the Loughbrown Stakes on his only start this season? Or Oasis Dancer, who won just a handicap on 2000 Guineas day at Newmarket, but was hugely impressive in so doing?

Or Xtension, third in the Dewhurst, fourth in the Guineas, and who may just fall short of top class this season, but who may not? Or Noll Wallop, impressive Guineas trial winner at Leopardstown in April, but who may just prefer softer ground or a longer distance or both? Or Fencing Master, third in the Dewhurst on just his second run ever, who may not be seen at his best until he goes over 10 furlongs?

‘Tis all a bit of a muddle all right Stephen.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

It’s been fully ten years since Meath and Offaly met in a championship match, a gap that will be bridged at 2pm this Sunday. The last time these sides met, it was in Croke Park and an excellent Offaly performance unseated the All Ireland champions on a 0-13 to 0-9 scoreline. Both counties have fallen from grace considerably since that match but this remains a tie with plenty of historical resonance.

Viewers of the championship action on RTE last Sunday would have been somewhat underwhelmed by the fare on offer, but assuming referee Derek Fahy can resist the urge to spoil the game with constant whistling for “illegal” handpasses, this could very well be an extremely enjoyable game from a viewing perspective. Both sides bring a fine set of attackers into the fray, and if the two management teams can resist the urge to counteract this by packing the defence, we could be in for a lot of scores. Even if Niall McNamee fails to make the starting Offaly fifteen, as is possible, there are plenty of scores in players like Ken Casey, Niall Darby, John Reynolds and others, while the Meath attacking unit is packed with quality. The absence of quality attackers like Jamie Queeney, David Bray and Brian Sheridan would severely impact on the chances of most counties, but the Royal county are still set to start with six excellent forwards.

Despite all this, goals have been very hard to come by for this Meath team. In their last nine games, six league matches and three challenge fixtures, they’ve scored two goals. They’ve scored plenty of points in that time, but the absence of pace in their attack means that they haven’t managed to take defenders out of the game and get enough clear looks on goal. Looking at the match ups against Offaly this weekend, they may have a size advantage in a few positions so it’s likely to be a direct approach from the Meathmen, but one that could run aground closer to the danger area with Scott Brady minding the house for Offaly.

Offaly scored nine goals in their league campaign and they’ll know that hitting the net at least once will be crucial in Portlaoise – possibly even twice. That might be a bridge too far, but they can accumulate a decent tally. This column’s suspicion is that they’ll do enough to at least stay within the three point spread, despite the widely held view that this could be an uncompetitive tie, but the safer bet could be over 29.5 total points at 4/5. 3pts at these odds is the recommended stake.

Ladbrokes are also offering betting on which team will register the highest tally this weekend, and while Offaly are intriguing at 11/1 for the reasons mentioned above, the best bet could be Louth at 4/1. Louth and Longford are two teams that have always played basic, traditional man on man football and both teams have plenty of good forwards who can score. Equally, neither team is over-endowed with man marking defenders and this could turn into a shootout very easily. Longford at 8/1 are not a bad selection either, but Louth are still a better team and they must be fancying their chances, particularly with Brian Kavanagh out and Paul Barden also doubtful. A 1pt bet on Louth to be the top scoring team at 4/1 is well worth consideration here.

I was in my dad’s house for Sunday’s racing.  We don’t do it often enough, load up the littl’uns, 1-2-3, and weedle our way out onto the motorway when you can pretty much just hit cruise control and, hey, an hour and 15 minutes later (an hour and a half if you are a speed cop and you are reading this) we arrive at my dad’s front gate.

It’s a Sunday thing, which probably explains why we don’t do it often enough, Sunday usually being a big racing day in Ireland and all, but we took a chance yesterday, said I could watch the reviews of Limerick and Navan on Monday morning.  It’s a lot easier these days as well since my dad made his peace with Sky, something about them over-charging him by a fiver and him taking a stand against them, going on hunger strike for a week and a half and chaining himself to the gates of the city walls for another month until they finally relented and he agreed to spark the Sky box into life again, thus allowing the sitting room dance to the beat of ATR and RUK once more.

There is a toll.  There is the usual stop at the petrol station en route, where you pick up a Racing Post and a Sunday Times, and you usually get collared for two magazines, if we’re good dad.  The Tinkerbell magazines with the jewellery sellotaped to the front are expensive enough, but they got their eyes on a penguin book last week that cost more than our attic conversion and talked about it since Tuesday, so it gave me time to save up and five days worth of if-you’re-good.  At least the little one who sits in the middle was happy with a packet of jellies.

I managed to secure one of those passes that allows you leave the lunch table for 10 minutes in order to watch the French 1000 Guineas.  It was a messy race, they didn’t go a gallop, and they were all in a heap at the two-furlong pole.  Liliside did cause interference, but she was the best filly in the race on the day, no question.

Actually, Special Duty benefitted from Liliside’s manoeuvre, she was able to follow the other filly through.  It was Full Steam and Rosanara who were the main sufferers of the concertina effect, which begs the question: why was Liliside placed sixth, behind Lady Of The Desert, and not last behind Full Steam?  After 75 minutes of deliberation, it wasn’t a surprise that the winner was thrown out, French rules being what they are, but it is always unsatisfactory when the best horse in the race on the day is disqualified.

It was a different scenario at Newmarket.  Jacqueline Quest may have been the best filly in the race on the day, but the probability is that she was the second best, and, the laws of physics being what they are, if her rightward move across the track hadn’t carried Special Duty with it, she would have lost by a neck or a half a length.  At Longchamp, Special Duty wasn’t impeded at all by Liliside’s manoeuvrings.  If anything, as above, she was aided by them.

There is a school of thought that says that Liliside should have been allowed to keep the race, but that the rider should have been suspended (as he was) and that the winning connections should have given some of the prize money to the horses that were hampered, perhaps the difference between what Rosanara won for finishing fifth and what she would have won for finishing fourth.  We had this when Dar Re Mi won the Prix Vermeille last September as well, and was disqualified and placed fifth because Jimmy Fortune’s move at the furlong pole may have cost the German filly, who finished fifth, fourth place.

There is another school of thought, however, the one on which the French rules seem to be based: if you win by unfair means, if you break the rules, if you cause interference to a rivals, then you shouldn’t be allowed to keep the race.  In athletics, if you step out of your lane, you are disqualified, it doesn’t matter if you are obviously the fastest athlete in the race on the day or not.

Special Duty is now a dual Classic winner, despite the fact that she has never got her head in front in one.  That’s charmed.  Tinkerbell wouldn’t have a look it.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

The start of the All Ireland Senior hurling championship is only four days away, but with all due respect to the hard working hurling men of Laois and Carlow, it’s fair to say that Saturday’s tie between these two counties is unlikely to garner a huge amount of neutral interest. Both counties have made great strides in recent years and for the sake of hurling as a sport this is tremendous news, but neither has com to the point that they will beat Dublin in the Leinster quarter final, meaning that this match is essentially about local bragging rights – which is significant to those involved, but not really in the greater scheme of things.

Galway’s introduction into the Leinster championship, and to a lesser extent the entry of Antrim, has livened up a previously moribund betting event. Howeever even now the race for the Bob O’Keeffe Cup, that previously celebrated event, doesn’t exactly get the blood flowing. Kilkenny and Galway dominate the book and 1/2 about those two meeting in the final is likely to prove a popular selection among the money buyers out there. Of course this begs the question, are those money buyers thinking along the right lines?

On Kilkenny’s side of the draw, it’s very difficult to see any upsets coming to pass. Dublin were probably one of the top five or six teams in Ireland last year but they failed to deliver when it counted. This year they appear to have gone backwards and it’s difficult to imagine the metropolitans getting a result against Kilkenny without firing on all cylinders. It’s difficult enough to imagine at the best of times.

Of course it’s not as if the Cats themselves have hit anything close to top pitch yet this year, but they did go back to their clubs after the league and resumed the usual service of hammering into each other. A remarkable opening to the Kilkenny championship has seen no team win two games out of two and nine of the twelve games finished with no more than one score between the teams. It’s fair to say that every senior hurler in the county has seen plenty of competitive hurling and will see plenty more before they take the field against Dublin.

It’s the other side of the draw where things may get a bit more interesting. Galway should win well against Wexford in the first round, if for no other reason than it is simply impossible to prepare for good championship hurling in division two. The Strawberry pickers will fight hard and should bring a lot of commitment and endeavour to the table in Nowlan Park, but the difference between winning division two and division one is immense – both in terms of the standard of hurling required, where Galway’s win was superb, or in terms of the importance, where Wexford’s win was crucial to their county’s future.

Offaly should beat Antrim with a bit to spare too and they should then go on to become the only potential spanner in the works. Joe Dooley took a second dip into the player pool in the last few weeks and he restored a few old favourites (Stephen Brown and Michael Cordial) to the panel alongside a few younger players with more long term potential. Very few of these players are likely to see championship action, but it was interesting to see Joe cast his net a little wider, something that he hadn’t been well known for up to now. If there is a growing awareness in the managerial team that it’s unrealistic to keep relying on the same few players, particularly up front, to do the business, then that must be acted upon, something that’s never easy.

Offaly have never feared Galway and it’s remarkable how players from border areas always relish this game. If Galway aren’t fully tuned into the danger of this fixture, they could easily get caught out, despite the fact that they have clearly the better hurlers. 1/2 is probably still value, but this Offaly team is sticky enough to preclude us from recommending that bet, instead saying to the money buyers out there that “you’ll probably win, but we don’t feel like that level of a roller coaster ride is what we want in an odds on bet.”

Of course a winner is a winner and thus the 1/2 backers won’t really care as long as it gets over the line somoehow! Just for now though, this column’s assessment is that it might not quite make it home.

It’s been like Santa’s workshop in the week before Christmas at the Ladbrokes GAA desk as the Championsip looms large. Those of a cynical disposition may suggest that while the elves graft through the small hours ensuring everybody gets a gift, us bookies are checking everything twice to make sure that nothing is given away!

The bet tickers on our computer screens have been rattling away with the surge in business that the championship brings – a cacophony to passing ears, but a song as sweet as the first lark of summer to us.

A close inspection of the week’s business reveals an entire spectrum of both bets and punters habits.
Some feverish cocktail of optimism and loyalty sees the likes of Roscommon backed at 300/1 to win Sam Maguire. The shrewd observors of the winter game note Sligo on the rise then look to the far side of the Connacht draw and mark Galway struggling to find their summer coat – that 16/1 for the Yeats county to take provincial honours was snapped up, 12/1 the offer now.

Like apple blossoms waiting for spring frost to pass, the Kerry and Kilkenny backers have been slower to emerge this year than usual. But emerge they inevitably did to avail of the 3/1 and 11/10 about Irish sport’s most relentlessly punted bankers.

The provincial football yankee is a popular choice; Cork and Dublin invariable bankers, take your pick of Galway and Mayo, then as ever, no-one is really sure about Ulster, though Down and Armagh are being backed with a lot more frequency than in recent years.

Looking to this weekend’s games and we have sided with our sponsored county, Derry, to progress to an Ulster quarter final at the expense of Armagh. Damian Cassidy’s side are 5/6 to win in 70 minutes, its 7/1 the draw and 13/10 an Armagh victory. Derry’s championship record at Celtic Park is formidable, and this is the sliver of favour which splits parity in our view. Championship action sees the return of our player total points markets and you can back or oppose the scoring performance of several of this tie’s key men such as the brothers Bradley and Stevie McDonnell.

The Munster championship gets underway with Tipp hosting Kerry at Thurles. The money we’ve seen here has been for Kerry on the handicap. We initially posted a line of five points but weight of support aligned to punters selling higher handicaps elsewhere to arb a middle has seen us move to a six point spread. Kerry have seldom looked as vulnerable in recent years and Tipperary haven’t looked as capable in decades. There’s also the point that Kerry struggled around the provincial venues last season and while you have to expect a Kerry victory, I think they may look less than their irresistable best and I’d take Tipp before Kerry given a six point start.

The Leinster meeting of Wicklow and Carlow at Portlaoise is one where I think we may see an upset. The Micko magic is perhaps overstated and Carlow will be very competitive here. There is an enormous expectation on the prodigal Carlow midfield of reformed Ozball player Brendan Murphy, and Thomas Walsh – a lamb that has grazed with both flocks. We offer best price Wicklow at 4/11 and we haven’t seen much of it yet. The ever-informed GAA punters may well sense an upset too.

Punt On!

The beauty of championship football is that All Ireland finals happen every weekend, or matches that mean just as much to the counties and supporters involved. For Kerry, Cork, Tyrone or Dublin, 2010 will only be considered successful if they find themselves grasping the Sam Maguire Cup on the third weekend in September, anything short will be a disappointment. For many other counties, anything short of either a provincial title or maybe an All Ireland semi final appearance would be sufficient cause for post mortems over the winter.

For many counties however, winning the championship is never on the cards and so local rivalry becomes the big issue at stake. This weekend’s meeting of Wicklow and Carlow is the perfect example of just such a game. Despite the hype over Mick O’Dwyer, realistically neither of these teams have any meaningful long term prospects. The winner will no doubt fancy their chances against Westmeath, but as we discussed in this column previously, Westmeath are back on the right track again and should have too much in their locker to fall to either of these teams.

And so for the good citizens in die-hard football areas like Rathvilly and Baltinglass, the 2010 season will be largely defined by what happens this Sunday in O’Moore Park. Championship form from 2009 has led to Wicklow being installed as strong favourites, but a quick look at the circumstances surrounding this game suggest that such strong favouritism simply isn’t justified. First and foremost, one of the most talented footballers in either county has swapped sides and rest assured that Thomas Walsh will be straining at the leash to prove a point here. He’ll know before he starts that a poor game here will see no shortage of cat calls ringing around Portlaoise and with man mountain Brendan Murphy standing beside him, the Carlow midfield looks nothing short of outstanding – on paper one of the best in Ireland.

These two sides met twice already this year, once in the O’Byrne shield and again in the National League. Both sides had one big win each, but for a variety of reasons, those results can be taken with a pinch of salt. What is for certain is that this Carlow team, despite playing with a novice-ish looking back line, can give Wicklow plenty to think about this Sunday. Dublin’s under-21 All Ireland will have given them a lot of confidence, simply because that Dublin team were very lucky to get out of Dr Cullen Park with an extra time victory. That subsequent All Ireland should leave these Carlow lads under no illusions as to just how good they were. Darragh Foley and Paul McElligott, along with Murphy, are making their senior debut having starred on that under 21 team and Carlow should be a lot stronger for that fresh blood.

The Wicklow full forward line of Dean Odlum, Seanie Furlong and Paul Earls is capable of scoring well while Tony Hannon will punish any indiscretions with his excellent free taking, but Carlow’s midfield could starve Wicklow of possession and if they do, they have some good forwards of their own who will give them a scoring platform.

In a local derby, with perhaps slightly more momentum behind the Carlow men, this match is primed for an upset – but in the spirit of conservatism, we’re going to stick to the handicap betting. 3pts on Carlow plus three at 11/10 is the main recommendation of this first championship weekend.

If you’ve been following this stuff over the last couple of years, I know what you’re thinking. Why, you are wondering, do I bother my backside wasting your time with the ups and down of the regular season when I only ever win big on the last weekend of the English campaign. Take my word for it, I’ve been wondering much the same thing myself.

Last year, it was €80 or so at something like 11-1 that saved my bacon. This time around, it was a €20 accumulator that actually involved five Irish games at around 43-1 that won me a little short of a grand. If only, you might wonder, I had just waited in the long grass with my entire wad and bunged the lot on last week, we could all merrily take the other 51 weekends of the year off. Well, it’s certainly an approach I’ll be mulling over during the summer months.

As it happens, I was away last weekend and the kids might have noticed that I was a little bit distracted through Saturday as I contemplated having around €450 on Limerick to win in Athlone at roughly evens.

I pondered laying some of the money off but after a disappointing month – I’d lost quite a bit during the preceding few weeks – decided to go for it in the end on the basis that Athlone’s strong early season form had abandoned them and Pat Scully’s side really did look a good bet to take all three points.

Fortunately for both me and the kids, though, there was, in the absence of an even half decent internet signal on the side of a mountain in Mayo, no real way of following the progress of the match so we went to the beach and arrived home later to discover that two goals in added time had clinched victory for the visitors. One heart attack narrowly averted for me then.

Anyway, the win puts me in a decent position heading into the various end of season cup finals and internationals although there’s little enough to splurge on this weekend. Emboldened by my final day of the league season success in England I went big on the FA Cup final where I fancied Chelsea to beat Everton but the Londoners are such a short price to overcome Portsmouth (1/10 to lift the trophy) that it scarcely seems worth the risk.

I’d rather like to see Portsmouth win the thing for Avram Grant and a bunch of players who have emerged from an immensely difficult season with their pride in tact and if Chelsea weren’t on the verge of a first ever double, there’s be a bit of me that would suspect they might not care enough to adequately guard against a shock. As things stand, however, I think they’ll fancy the win and have a bit too much again for opponents they hammered a few weeks ago to kick off an impressive championship run in.

So, I’ll have a few quid on a couple of different routes to victory for John Terry and co. with the biggest bet of the weekend going on them to win by two or more combined with former boss, Jose Mourinho, to guide Inter to the Champions League within 90 minutes in Madrid next weekend.

Back at home, I’ll go win a rather more modest treble in the league as well as, now that I have a taste for it, a fairly similar accumulator.

Bets

€25 treble on Limerick to beat Mervue, Waterford to win in Wexford and Sligo to beat Drogheda @ 3.88.

€15 accumulator on the above plus Harps to beat Longford, Derry to win in Cork and Bohemians to beat St Pats.

€50 double on Chelsea (-1.5) to beat Portsmouth and Inter to beat Bayern Munich @ 3.36.

€15 on Chelsea v Portsmouth to be level at half-time with Chelsea winning after 90 minutes @ 7/2.

€2.50 on Drogba to score first and Chelsea to win 3-0 @ 14-1.

€2.50 on Lampard to score first and Chelsea to win 3-0 @ 20-1.

And, if Dindane looks certain to start tomorrow, €2.50 on him to score first and Chelsea to win 3-1 @ 200-1.

There was an old punter used to live down the road from us, a friend of my grandfather’s, a sparring partner. Even as a cub, I used to enjoy their spats, they were the best of mates but they sparked off each other like two flintstones, and a fireside seat in the sitting room as the debates raged was never given up. Pure theatre.

Three fifty bob doubles and a fifty bob treble was Johnny’s bet, as I remember, usually involving all or some of the Pat Eddery/Peter Walwyn horses. (Johnny was Eddery/Walwyn to my grandfather’s Mercer/Cecil. I’m not sure if you had to follow a jockey/trainer combination in those days, I’m not certain that it wasn’t part of every bookmaker’s rule book, or at least part of the betting landscape, but the people from whom I learned these things seemed to think that it was the way forward, so who was I, mere whipper-snapper, to argue?) If there was a short one, Johnny would back that one in a single as well. The shorter the odds, the bigger the certainty.

I never really got that one, even then. The shorter the odds the less you won. I remember going into the village with my grandfather to back a horse that we thought was unlucky last time. We went in with a tenner, kept two pounds back to buy the bread and the milk and the Evening Press (6th Edition) and the pipecleaners on the way home, just in case it got stuffed, ended up having eight pounds on the horse, watching it scrape home, and winning just over six pounds, and I wasn’t a bit impressed.

So can an odds-on shot be value? Would Arsenal be value at 4/5 to beat our Astro League side at the Emirates? (With home field advantage, probably. ) Is 4/6 value about picking a blue ball at random from a bag that contains nine blue balls and one red ball? Would Denman have been value at 1/3 to win this year’s Aon Chase? Some people thought that he was value at 1/5, and just because he didn’t win it doesn’t mean that he wasn’t.

Is Paco Boy value at 5/6 to win the Lockinge Stakes on Saturday? He has a lot in his favour. He is 6lb clear of everything else on official ratings, he proved that he stayed a mile last year when he won the Queen Anne, he looked mighty good in winning the Bet365 Mile on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown, and he should have the fast ground that he likes. It’s a compelling case.

My natural instinct when faced with an odds-on shot is to look for chinks. There aren’t many in Paco Boy in the context of Saturday’s race, he is a classy individual. However, he looked as good in winning the Bet365 Mile last season as he did this season, and he disappointed in the Lockinge on his subsequent run. The ground was on the dead side for last year’s Lockinge, admittedly, and Richard Hannon reported afterwards that he was flat, that we didn’t see the real Paco Boy that day. That may be so, but when you are betting at odds-on, when you are betting at a price that suggests that the outcome is more likely to occur than not occur, then you need almost everything to be in your favour. Zacinto is top class, although he may improve for his seasonal debut on Saturday, while there are a couple of lurkers against him that could just improve sufficiently – like The Cheka and Lord Shanakill, having his first run for Henry Cecil – to give him something to think about.

I think that 5/6 is about right. I won’t be backing him. It’s just not my type of price. To make a profit out of backing 5/6 shots, you need more than six in every 11 of them to win, and that’s difficult. I would prefer try to get more than one in every nine 8/1 shots, or one in every 34 33/1 shots to win. I won’t be laying Paco Boy either, unless there is a deluge on Berkshire between now and Saturday. When you lay a horse, you are effectively betting on every other horse in the race, and there are a couple in there on Saturday that you just don’t need to have on your side. Also, when you are laying at 5/6, you are effectively backing at 6/5, and that’s not really my type of price either.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

There was an old punter used to live down the road from us, a friend of my grandfather’s, a sparring partner. Even as a cub, I used to enjoy their spats, they were the best of mates but they sparked off each other like two flintstones, and a fireside seat in the sitting room as the debates raged was never given up. Pure theatre.

Three fifty bob doubles and a fifty bob treble was Johnny’s bet, as I remember, usually involving all or some of the Pat Eddery/Peter Walwyn horses. (Johnny was Eddery/Walwyn to my grandfather’s Mercer/Cecil. I’m not sure if you had to follow a jockey/trainer combination in those days, I’m not certain that it wasn’t part of every bookmaker’s rule book, or at least part of the betting landscape, but the people from whom I learned these things seemed to think that it was the way forward, so who was I, mere whipper-snapper, to argue?) If there was a short one, Johnny would back that one in a single as well. The shorter the odds, the bigger the certainty.

I never really got that one, even then. The shorter the odds the less you won. I remember going into the village with my grandfather to back a horse that we thought was unlucky last time. We went in with a tenner, kept two pounds back to buy the bread and the milk and the Evening Press (6th Edition) and the pipecleaners on the way home, just in case it got stuffed, ended up having eight pounds on the horse, watching it scrape home, and winning just over six pounds, and I wasn’t a bit impressed.

So can an odds-on shot be value? Would Arsenal be value at 4/5 to beat our Astro League side at the Emirates? (With home field advantage, probably. ) Is 4/6 value about picking a blue ball at random from a bag that contains nine blue balls and one red ball? Would Denman have been value at 1/3 to win this year’s Aon Chase? Some people thought that he was value at 1/5, and just because he didn’t win it doesn’t mean that he wasn’t.

Is Paco Boy value at 5/6 to win the Lockinge Stakes on Saturday? He has a lot in his favour. He is 6lb clear of everything else on official ratings, he proved that he stayed a mile last year when he won the Queen Anne, he looked mighty good in winning the Bet365 Mile on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown, and he should have the fast ground that he likes. It’s a compelling case.

My natural instinct when faced with an odds-on shot is to look for chinks. There aren’t many in Paco Boy in the context of Saturday’s race, he is a classy individual. However, he looked as good in winning the Bet365 Mile last season as he did this season, and he disappointed in the Lockinge on his subsequent run. The ground was on the dead side for last year’s Lockinge, admittedly, and Richard Hannon reported afterwards that he was flat, that we didn’t see the real Paco Boy that day. That may be so, but when you are betting at odds-on, when you are betting at a price that suggests that the outcome is more likely to occur than not occur, then you need almost everything to be in your favour. Zacinto is top class, although he may improve for his seasonal debut on Saturday, while there are a couple of lurkers against him that could just improve sufficiently – like The Cheka and Lord Shanakill, having his first run for Henry Cecil – to give him something to think about.

I think that 5/6 is about right. I won’t be backing him. It’s just not my type of price. To make a profit out of backing 5/6 shots, you need more than six in every 11 of them to win, and that’s difficult. I would prefer try to get more than one in every nine 8/1 shots, or one in every 34 33/1 shots to win. I won’t be laying Paco Boy either, unless there is a deluge on Berkshire between now and Saturday. When you lay a horse, you are effectively betting on every other horse in the race, and there are a couple in there on Saturday that you just don’t need to have on your side. Also, when you are laying at 5/6, you are effectively backing at 6/5, and that’s not really my type of price either.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.