Archive for May, 2010

Clonmel preview

Thursday, May 27th, 2010

Mixed fare is the order of the day at Clonmel on Thursday evening, and just as was the case at Punchestown last night big fields abound. The exception is once again the opening event on the card, in this case a 1m2f fillies maiden in which Dainty should be too strong for her four rivals after a fair third at Cork on her most recent outing.

Pat Flynn has enjoyed a steady stream of success in recent weeks and Inishtearaght did her bit for the Waterford handler’s team when belatedly getting off the mark at Wexford three weeks ago. The daughter of Verglas has been raised just 6lb for that narrow win, and provided she stays the extra 1/4 mile (didn’t appear to quite get home on her previous try at Sligo last year) ought to make a bold bid to follow up in the 1m2f 47-60 handicap.

Bangalore Gold gave up-and-coming trainer David Marnane another big winner at the Curragh last Saturday and Jeunesse Doree could add to the tally of the Tipperary man and jockey Colm O’Donoghue in the 1m2f maiden at 6.10. The Rock Of Gibraltar filly showed a good level of progress from her debut when a close fourth at Roscommon last time and remains open to a lot more improvement than the majority of her rivals.

Visit Wexford may not be the force of old, but John Kiely’s charge has been in fair form of late and should go well in the 2m handicap hurdle, while Frankly Smart could be the answer to the concluding maiden following a promising first start over jumps at Cork.

Curragh wrap

Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

There was plenty going on at The Curragh at the weekend, plenty of things upon which to reflect.  I think we’ve covered Canford Cliffs.  He was very good, and he stayed.  There’s a thing.  When Peter Doyle – of Peter Doyle Bloodstock fame, who was instrumental in the purchase of Canford Cliffs, just as he has been instrumental in the purchase of just about every head that peers over a stable door at East Everleigh Stables – told me on Tuesday that they were thinking of supplementing him for the Derby, I had to pause for a second, blink once, like when you are thinking of how to react when you know that someone is awaiting your reaction.  I think I said, No way, not entirely sure if he was fully joking or half-joking or completely serious.  (15/8 each of three.)  The he laughed.  (No offers fully joking.)  Exhale.  Yeh, and the 2011 Ascot Gold Cup.

Jan Vermeer looked good in winning the Gallinule, and was universally acclaimed as such.  On the plus side, he was a Group 1 winner as a juvenile and this was his first run of the season, his first since last November when he kept on gamely through the Saint-Cloud mud (le mud), I’ll show that Johnny Murtagh fellow for passing me over in favour of Midas Touch, to win the Group 1 Criterium International (not to be confused with the Grand Criterium de Saint-Cloud, or any other Grand Criterium for that matter, of which there appears to be many), beating the highly talented Godolphin horse Emerald Commander, who had been beaten a whisker by Elusive Pimpernel in the Acomb Stakes at York on his penultimate run, into second place, with impressive Prix Marcel Boussac winner Rosanara just beating Midas Touch in the run for third place.  It was a real Group 1 race for juveniles, despite the fact that it took place on the first day of November.

Jan Vermeer was certain to come on for his run in the Gallinule, his seasonal debut, and he was carrying a 7lb penalty reserved for Group 1 winners, and he looked really impressive in winning the race.  On the negative side in the context of the Derby, there is a chance that the race didn’t take that much winning.  Main market rival Shintoh had 16lb to find on him on the book (net 9lb), and there is a chance that he didn’t run his race anyway, that Sunday’s race came up to quickly after he had been so impressive in winning at Navan just a week previously.  Icon Dream had been beaten by Ted Spread in the Chester Vase, and that Mark Tompkins colt is a 40/1 shot for the Derby, while the horse that ended up chasing Jan Vermeer home, the Paul Deegan-trained Bobbyscot, is an admiarable performer but is thoroughly exposed, having won just once now in nine attempts.

Also, while Jan Vermeer did win easily, and while Johnny Murtagh was able to spend the majority of the last 100 yards perfecting his style while watching the big screen, the time of the race wasn’t good, it was the second slowest comparative time of the seven races run on the day, just a second quicker that the slowest time, the three-year-old maiden run over the same distance.  He is a hugely exciting prospect, no doubt, he could win the Derby, but we probably learned no more about him from Sunday’s run than we knew already bar the fact that he was alive and well and still had four legs and a functioning set of lungs, and he was a 20/1 shot for the Derby in places on Sunday morning.  Odds of 6/1 now are just about right.

There is a temptation to under-rate Bethrah’s performance in winning the Irish 1000 Guineas on Sunday.  When five horses finish within three parts of a length of each other, natural reaction is to say that the race is not a strong one. They can’t all be top class, so the hypothesis goes. However, the Irish 1000 Guineas this year may be an exception to that general way of thinking. The right fillies chased Bethrah home. Godolphin apparently think an awful lot of runner-up Anna Salai, while Music Show, who finished third, won the ‘far side’ 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. Also, the two Ballydoyle fillies who finished fourth and fifth, Remember When and Lillie Langtry, are two potentially top class fillies, the latter was a top class juvenile and could be a big player in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, while the former, alhough still a maiden, is no bigger than 10/1 for the Oaks.

Bethrah was the best filly in the race on the day, no question. Pat Smullen said afterwards that the Dermot Weld-trained filly surprised him with how quickly and easily she picked up when he gave her a squeeze, with the result that he had to take her back off heels and ask her to go again. And she did, she picked up impressively on the far side to get up and win by a head, showing the willing attitude that she had displayed when she won the Guineas Trial at Leopardstown earlier this month. She is progressive and she is exciting. It’s unlikely shell go for the Ascot Gold Cup though.  Weld probably has a couple of others for that one.

For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Punchestown Preview

Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

Ground conditions appear certain to ride on the quick side despite watering in the run-up to this evening’s fixture at Punchestown, but with the exception of the opening 2m chase the card has attracted huge fields.

It’s very much a case of quality over quantity in the first race of the evening, with just three set to face the starter. Two of them, Archie Boy and Coscorrig, are confirmed front runners, which may play into the hands of Paul Nolan’s See U Bob.

My Lord Oscar will be a popular choice for the historic Conyngham Cup, with Nina Carberry booked for the ride and a pipe-opener over an inadequate trip under his belt but several of his rivals bring decent recent form into the 3m1f contest. Perhaps the most interesting of them is Classic Frontier, who was a big eye-catcher on his return from a break at Tipperary last time.

Oilily turned in a fantastic effort when runner-up to the exciting Hidden Universe in the Grade 1 bumper at last month’s National Hunt Festival and with an adequate round of jumping on her hurdles debut ought to be very hard to beat in the 2m mares maiden. Wheres Harry looks the clear pick of the remainder.

Cottage Oak was a very exciting horse in his bumper days but has been very lightly raced of late, and although a fair second at Down Royal last time might be worth opposing in the 2m4f maiden. Theatre Festival chased home the useful Taking Stock in what was almost certainly a stronger event at Killarney and may prove the pick.

Whats Up Gorden, Arkendale and Merry Cowboy are just three contenders for a devilishly competitive 2m2f handicap hurdle that are potentially well-treated over the smaller obstacles compared to their chasing exploits.

Clara capable of doubling up.

Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

Now that this column has become part of one of Ireland’s biggest daily newspapers, it seems a little parochial for this Offaly native to be writing about the Offaly senior football championship on such a national stage. However as any bettor will tell you, a winner is a winner irrespective of how it comes about! So since Ladbrokes have been good enough to price the race for the John Dowling Cup, named in honour of the thirtieth president of the GAA, it seems foolish not to break down the odds on offer and to assess if there is any value to be found therein.

A quick glance at the prices on offer from Ladbrokes would suggest that Rhode and Clara are a long way ahead of the pack and in this regard, the Magic Sign have assessed the situation correctly. When Rhode surrendered their county title to Tullamore in 2007, it was notable that Tullamore weren’t the team that beat them, and when the town team entered the Leinster club championship, they ran aground against a good but limited Éire Óg side from Carlow. Last year, when Clara usurped Rhode, they did so by beating Rhode in the county final, before going on to prove their worth on the Leinster stage. Indeed had their first semi final against Portlaoise not been abandoned due to the heavy rainfall, there is every chance that Clara would have denied Portlaoise their Leinster crown and possibly gone on a longer run of their own.

These two clubs also met in a very spicy league match recently and Clara came off best by a single point, however that was with Niall McNamee absent from the Rhode line up. Anyone who was previously unaware of McNamee’s fantastic talent got a glimpse of it last Sunday with his role in the two Offaly goals against Meath and that was while playing with a severely limiting injury. At club level, in Offaly at least, he is almost unstoppable and his importance cannot be overstated.

Nonetheless the psychological aspect of last year’s county final defeat cannot be discounted. Unlike previous defeats where Rhode might have been caught on the hop, last September they were definitely second best and they lost out despite getting plenty of help from the referee on the day. To compound that with a second defeat in the league means that Clara right now have a mental edge on their rivals, probably enough of an edge to counteract Rhode’s slightly deeper pool of top quality players.

If this were a straight county final between the two clubs and odds of 8/11 and 11/8 were offered, as the current outright odds suggest would be the case, then those prices would reflect Rhode’s talent but not Clara’s resolve and inner belief. At the outright odds, a 2pt bet on Clara at 15/8 would be justified.

Looking down the field, potential outsiders are hard to identify. Tullamore’s win in the county hurling championship last year has invigorated hurling in the town, to the point that many dual players are giving the small ball game their first preference. Tullamore’s ability to take opportunities is unparalleled – the club rarely misses a chance to snatch a title when others drop the ball – but they have big problems down the spine of their team and lack star quality. That their best player is an intercounty hurler who rarely trains with the footballers says a lot.

Edenderry are improving under Peter Brady’s stewardship but have a long way to go and need to learn how to close out wins in tight games, while Gracefield have a terrible record at getting their best footballers out on the field. Ferbane will need to find a lot more scoring potential to really threaten the top teams, while Shamrocks missed a lot of chances to win titles when they had a very strong team out, it’s difficult to see them making an impact now with many better footballers not available for selection.

Tubber and Ballycumber have both been competitive in recent years, but neither of these two neighbours look like contenders either. Tubber are losing several players to emigration this summer, a bodyblow for a small rural club, while Ballycumber simply haven’t brought enough good younger footballers into the mix in recent years.

The one wild card is Walsh Island, Intermediate champions from 2009. The very name will evoke a lot of memories from football fans all over Ireland familiar with legendary names such as Willie Bryan, Richie Connor and of course Matt Connor associated with the famous hooped jersey. They’ve a good core unit and are very strong at midfield, an area where Offaly club football is notoriously weak. The phrase “in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king” certainly comes to mind. An injury or two to any of their key players will be enough to derail their campaign, but if they could keep fit and maybe avoid Rhode and Clara until the later stages, they have a settled team who might put themselves in a position to pull off a shock. The odds aren’t way off by any stretch of the imagination, but at 16/1 they are genuinely capable of beating the good sides, which is more than can be said for many other teams priced in or around that level. A 1pt bet on Walsh Island at 16/1, possibly with a view to laying off later, is well worthwhile.

With History slain, Tipp can conquer again.

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

Nothing brings out the romantic heart in GAA scribes quite like a Munster hurling clash between Cork and Tipperary, so expect to be bombarded with flowery prose as the first truly heavyweight clash of the GAA championship seasoned is previewed by publications all across the country this week. The somewhat underwhelming nature of the football matches so far, dominated as they have been by the arbiters rather than the players, will only heighten the appetite for some good old fashioned timber shattering amidst the white heat of Munster championship. While Barry Kelly might not be best loved by many Munster hurling supporters, many of whom perceive him to pay too much deference to Kilkenny (a view this column does not share, it should be noted!), he is still likely to allow plenty of physicality and as such escape the wrath of the paying supporters, unlike many of the football referees so far.

Neither of these teams will shirk the physical battles, but the national league final was deeply worrying from a Cork perspective in that Galway highlighted more than a few weaknesses in their ranks – players who simply aren’t able to compete to the same degree any more. The Cork team for Sunday is packed full of youth and experience, but very few players who tick both boxes. Well over half their team are either in their first two years of championship hurling or else in their last two. Tipperary on the other hand are a force in their prime, with many of their key players very much at the peak of their powers.

Having broken the Páirc Uí Chaoimh hoodoo two years ago, there is no good reason why Tipperary can’t win this match. They have the players, they have been focussing on championship all year and there is a real possibility that this will be the Sunday when a lot of Cork stalwarts learn the harsh lesson that they’ve stayed on a year or two too long.

4/7 about Tipperary implies that they are between two and two and a half points the better team – realistically, that margin should be doubled. They should enjoy plenty of possession under their own puckout, they have a much more potent goalscoring threat and they’ll have no difficulty dealing with the somewhat rudimentary threat of Aisake Ó hAilpín and/or Michael Cussen. The handicap could be the best way to get behind the Premier men in due course, but for now it’s as well to take the match betting odds and place a 4pt wager on Tipperary to beat Cork at 4/7.

4/7 is not the kind of price that appeals to a lot of people but if 11/10 is more to your taste, take the Tipp men and put them into a treble with Galway and Offaly. Galway have improved from where they were last year, while Wexford simply cannot be ready for this match after two years of division two hurling. The Model countymen are proud hurlers who will fight to the bitter end, but that won’t make the ending any less bitter from their perspective, while in Parnell Park, Offaly should cut through Antrim with relative ease. The worry here is that Offaly tend to be by far the most vulnerable side when it comes to being blindsided by second tier counties, but that shouldn’t be an issue this weekend as Antrim have gone way off the ball and Liam Watson’s departure illustrates that all is not well in the North East.

There were fifteen points between these sides last year and one suspects that while the margin may not be as big, Offaly still shouldn’t have to break sweat too much, and neither should the holders of any bets carrying Faithful flavour.

Goals look best bet ahead of possible Turkey shoot

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

Croatia’s win on Sunday leaves me just four euro short of equalling last season’s profit and while there’s a bit of me that says I should wait for tomorrow’s meeting between Turkey and Northern Ireland before trying to surpass it, I feel somewhat obliged to throw my hat in the right ahead of this evening’s friendly at the RDS.

These games are, in truth, pretty much a nightmare to call in that it’s almost impossible to tell with any confidence what the visiting team is looking for from the outing in advance. Paraguay are a decent side but if their coach is using the match to try out his third choice left back in central defence then Robbie suddenly looks a better bet to open the scoring.

If, on the other hand, he, like Giovanni Trapattoni, is really looking to win the thing, then it might be actually be a half way decent night out.

Anyway, Ireland are playing a strong midfield and attack and the Paraguayans have strong options up front while neither side is renowned for its defending so I’m going to go for the game to produce three goals or more – with my money back if it’s two – at roughly evens.

I’m also going to tie it up in a double with Turkey to beat Northern Ireland by two or more (with half my money back in the event that it’s one) in the United States tomorrow. And whatever happens tonight I’ll probably come back for a few more quid on the Turks to beat what is essentially a depleted and slightly out of season Irish League outfit. More about tomorrow, though…

Bet.

€50 double on the Republic of Ireland v Paraguay to produce three goals or more (stake back if it’s two) and Turkey (-1.5/2) to beat Northern Ireland @ 4.03.

Guineas frolics

Monday, May 24th, 2010

I forgot my binoculars on Saturday.  My fault.  I usually have them in the back of the car, but I took them out during the week so that the girls could have a look at a couple of finches or something that were doing a bit of frolicking in the hedge at the back of the house, that’s assuming birds can actually frolic, that you don’t have to be a lamb or a calf or some other farm animal to be able to frolic, and that you can frolic in a hedge as opposed to in a meadow, where the vast majority of frolicking activity seems to take place.  Not that they needed binoculars really, I mean, it isn’t as if the hedge at the back of the garden is 500 metres away.  Anyway, the net result was that the binoculars were sitting on the window in the kitchen when I arrived at The Curragh, and that wasn’t good.

I have often wondered if you could get away without binoculars at the big meetings these days, with all their big screens.  Certainly at Cheltenham you see more on the big screen than you do when you watch a race through binoculars.  They go very far away from you on the far side, at the part of the track that is closest to Bishop’s Cleeve, and you often don’t see the minutiae of a race, the little mistakes, the interference, the niggling along, until you get back to the B&B and watch the replay.

I have to say, though, I missed my binoculars on Saturday.  The big screen wasn’t that big, it seemed to be smaller than usual (perhaps a victim of the cutbacks) and it didn’t seem to be very vivid.  It may have been the sun behind it, but it seemed to be duller than it usually is.  Also, the best viewing at The Curragh is from the top of the main grandstand, but there is no point in going up there unless you are armed with a pair of 10×8s.

I watched one race from the main grandstand, but when a fellow with a plastic cup half full of beer grabbed my arm on his way up the steps to steady himself and stop him falling back down to the bottom of the stands again like a little round pebble, I decided that I would acquire a different vantage point for myself for the Guineas, so I went down to the rail, right in front of the big screen, about a half a furlong from the winning post, and settled myself.

It’s great down by the rail.  I’d forgotten what it was like.  You should watch at least one race from the rail every time you go racing.  I used to always watch races from the rail, from the last fence.  I remember watching Bit Of A Skite’s Irish National from the last fence in the lashing rain and being so small that the only part of the race that I saw was when they flashed past me on the run-in.  I couldn’t hear the commentary and I wasn’t even sure what had won until afterwards.  (No big screens then, no siree, we were lucky to have a television set in the bar.)

You get the real racing experience down by the rail.  There were a couple of fellows slugging pints, but it was all good-humoured stuff, good banter, “Go on Johnny!” that kind of thing.  I remember watching the 1995 Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham from the rail, and a fellow beside me cheering on Charlie Swan on Danoli – “Go on Charlie!  Go on Charlie!” – with the white and blue diablo as Norman Williamson, sporting the blue and white diablo on Alderbrook, drew clear.  I walked away before reality dawned.

There were plenty of “Go on Richard!”s around me as Canford Cliffs sauntered up to join Xtension on Saturday and drew clear, staying the mile, no doubt.  So there.  In fairness to the three Richards (Hannon, Hannon and Hughes), they never doubted that he would.  I did.  Frolics.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Sunday preview

Sunday, May 23rd, 2010

Downpatrick plays host to a Sunday jumps card, but the fare is very ordinary indeed and the main focus of attention for the majority of people will be on the top class flat card at the Curragh.

The Irish 1000 Guineas, sponsored for the first time by Etihad Airways, has attracted a big field and plenty of horses hold chances. Music Show, who was clearly disadvantaged by the draw when sixth at Newmarket, certainly should be thereabouts, while Gile Na Greine, three places in front of her there, comes from a stable in great heart. However Lolly For Dolly, who came from an unpromising position to retain her unbeaten record in the Athasi Stakes, could beat them all.

The Tattersalls Gold Cup, the day’s other Group 1, is as usual all about quality rather than quantity, and Irish Derby hero Fame And Glory has a great opportunity to supplement his recent victory in the Mooresbridge Stakes. Cutlass Bay, a fascinating recruit to the Godolphin operation, looks his only realistic threat in the 1m2f event.

Jan Vermeer has the opportunity to catapult himself into the Derby picture by landing the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes, but conceding weight to his seven rivals will not be easy.

Bilic’s boys look unlikely to be beat by threadbare Welsh

Sunday, May 23rd, 2010

With Inter having won last night at something of a canter in the end, I was left regretting not having gone for it a little more in terms of the money I had on them to win. Still, that and Friday’s returns on my successful League of Ireland treble have left me with a healthy enough profit as we embark on the pre World Cup friendly international phase of the season.

First up is Wales against Croatia this evening. Neither side is at anything like full strength for the game but its has to be said that John Toshack is starting from a somewhat weaker position and losing 15 players, as he has, is not something you would ever have fancied him to cope with too successfully.

If these two were to meet in a competitive game, it would look a bit of a no brainer with the locals, at nine, the highest ranked team in the world not to be going to South Africa while the Welsh, at 75, are routinely no more than also-rans in qualifying tournaments.

Andrew Crofts became the latest player to pull out of the travelling party over the weekend (the day after he signed for Norwich from Brighton, as it happens) and Toshack now faces the prospect of having Swansea’s Ashley Williams captain the side with St Mirren’s Andy Dorman making his debut. James Collins, Gareth Bale, Simon Davies and Craig Bellamy, meanwhile, are amongst those who may or may not be bothering to watch on television from home/the beach.

Slaven Bilic, meanwhile, has a few absentees to cope with himself with the Croatian boss almost guaranteeing a couple of withdrawals by naming Bayern Munich duo Ivica Olic and Daniel Panjic in his squad while Luka Modric suggested during the week that his preference is to sit the game out, observing: I am tired and everything hurts”.

Some other big names are gone too while several of the country’s up and coming stars are on duty with the under-21s but Bilic still looks to have a little more quality to work with and his side have won their last five friendlies so it’s not hard to understand how they are firm favourites to win again today.

Even 4/11 looks reasonable enough in the circumstances and I’m going to take it rather than 1.7 or so for the Asian handicap that requires the Croatians to win by two. As luck would have it I’m slightly more than €110 up on the weekend so I’m going stick all of that back on in the hope of winning an additional €40.

Bet

€110 on Croatia to beat Wales @ 4/11.

Curragh Saturday preview

Saturday, May 22nd, 2010

A classic weekend at the Curragh kicks off with a very interesting renewal of the Irish 2000 Guineas, sponsored for the first time by Abu Dhabi, as the centrepiece of a seven-race card.

Canford Cliffs, for all that people continue to question his stamina, is the form pick on his third to Makfi in the Newmarket verstion but Richard Hannon’s charge faces stiff opposition from several quarters. Aidan O’Brien runs no less than six, with Johnny Murtagh unsurprisingly electing to partner the much-touted Steinbeck – unseen since his slightly unlucky fourth in last year’s Dewhurst Stakes. Impressive Leopardstown trial winner Noll Wallop is another well capable of making his presence felt.

Markab and Ayr Gold Cup winner Jimmy Styles form a strong overeas raiding party for the Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes, but Group 1 winner Alfred Nobel and progressive Cork scorer Rain Delayed should provide stern resistance.

Samuel Morse created a good impression when arriving late to land a maiden at today’s venue on his debut early in the season and looks to have a good chance of following up in the Listed Marble Hill Stakes, while Shamwari Lodge stands out in a weak-looking edition of the Group 3 TRI Equestrian Stakes.

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