Now that this column has become part of one of Ireland’s biggest daily newspapers, it seems a little parochial for this Offaly native to be writing about the Offaly senior football championship on such a national stage. However as any bettor will tell you, a winner is a winner irrespective of how it comes about! So since Ladbrokes have been good enough to price the race for the John Dowling Cup, named in honour of the thirtieth president of the GAA, it seems foolish not to break down the odds on offer and to assess if there is any value to be found therein.
A quick glance at the prices on offer from Ladbrokes would suggest that Rhode and Clara are a long way ahead of the pack and in this regard, the Magic Sign have assessed the situation correctly. When Rhode surrendered their county title to Tullamore in 2007, it was notable that Tullamore weren’t the team that beat them, and when the town team entered the Leinster club championship, they ran aground against a good but limited Éire Óg side from Carlow. Last year, when Clara usurped Rhode, they did so by beating Rhode in the county final, before going on to prove their worth on the Leinster stage. Indeed had their first semi final against Portlaoise not been abandoned due to the heavy rainfall, there is every chance that Clara would have denied Portlaoise their Leinster crown and possibly gone on a longer run of their own.
These two clubs also met in a very spicy league match recently and Clara came off best by a single point, however that was with Niall McNamee absent from the Rhode line up. Anyone who was previously unaware of McNamee’s fantastic talent got a glimpse of it last Sunday with his role in the two Offaly goals against Meath and that was while playing with a severely limiting injury. At club level, in Offaly at least, he is almost unstoppable and his importance cannot be overstated.
Nonetheless the psychological aspect of last year’s county final defeat cannot be discounted. Unlike previous defeats where Rhode might have been caught on the hop, last September they were definitely second best and they lost out despite getting plenty of help from the referee on the day. To compound that with a second defeat in the league means that Clara right now have a mental edge on their rivals, probably enough of an edge to counteract Rhode’s slightly deeper pool of top quality players.
If this were a straight county final between the two clubs and odds of 8/11 and 11/8 were offered, as the current outright odds suggest would be the case, then those prices would reflect Rhode’s talent but not Clara’s resolve and inner belief. At the outright odds, a 2pt bet on Clara at 15/8 would be justified.
Looking down the field, potential outsiders are hard to identify. Tullamore’s win in the county hurling championship last year has invigorated hurling in the town, to the point that many dual players are giving the small ball game their first preference. Tullamore’s ability to take opportunities is unparalleled – the club rarely misses a chance to snatch a title when others drop the ball – but they have big problems down the spine of their team and lack star quality. That their best player is an intercounty hurler who rarely trains with the footballers says a lot.
Edenderry are improving under Peter Brady’s stewardship but have a long way to go and need to learn how to close out wins in tight games, while Gracefield have a terrible record at getting their best footballers out on the field. Ferbane will need to find a lot more scoring potential to really threaten the top teams, while Shamrocks missed a lot of chances to win titles when they had a very strong team out, it’s difficult to see them making an impact now with many better footballers not available for selection.
Tubber and Ballycumber have both been competitive in recent years, but neither of these two neighbours look like contenders either. Tubber are losing several players to emigration this summer, a bodyblow for a small rural club, while Ballycumber simply haven’t brought enough good younger footballers into the mix in recent years.
The one wild card is Walsh Island, Intermediate champions from 2009. The very name will evoke a lot of memories from football fans all over Ireland familiar with legendary names such as Willie Bryan, Richie Connor and of course Matt Connor associated with the famous hooped jersey. They’ve a good core unit and are very strong at midfield, an area where Offaly club football is notoriously weak. The phrase “in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king” certainly comes to mind. An injury or two to any of their key players will be enough to derail their campaign, but if they could keep fit and maybe avoid Rhode and Clara until the later stages, they have a settled team who might put themselves in a position to pull off a shock. The odds aren’t way off by any stretch of the imagination, but at 16/1 they are genuinely capable of beating the good sides, which is more than can be said for many other teams priced in or around that level. A 1pt bet on Walsh Island at 16/1, possibly with a view to laying off later, is well worthwhile.