It’s all been about Ballydoyle so far, this Derby.  All the interest, all the talk, it’s all about what Aidan will run and what Johnny will ride.  You’d send yourself astray trying to figure it all out, with your market moves and your gallops reports and your whispers.  Ladbrokes, who tend to know more about Ballydoyle moving and shaking than most normal folk, have been shortest about Jan Vermeer and longest about St Nicholas Abbey for a while now, and that’s significant.

More significant, however, is the Betfair market.  Saint Nic has been weak since last Friday morning, Jan Vermeer has been strong.  If you want to know about anything, from the capital of the Ivory Coast to the value of an ounce of gold, the first thing you do, even before Wikipedia.org, is consult the Betfair market.  Saint Nic went as high as 20/1 on Betfair, you can back him at 10/1 at the time of writing – his real price, not the 9/2 best price with the bookmakers – and it has to be odds against that he will even line up at this stage.

So where does that leave us?  It seems to mean that Jan Vermeer is a definite runner anyway.  Strange one, with all the support that has come for the son of Montjeu since he won the Gallinule, would he have been a definite runner if there was full confidence behind Saint Nic?  He may have been anyway, but some of Aidan’s comments during the week regarding the French Derby as an alternative may have scared some of the ante post voucher holders.

Midas Touch to Epsom, that one seems to be cast in stone, although he was worrying weak in the market at the end of last week.  Cape Blanco probably to Chantilly, that seems to be the thinking, and it makes a lot of sense, 10 and a half furlongs will probably be his optimum, although you have to feel for those who took a chance and backed him at fancy prices for Epsom before he won the Dante.

The danger is that we get caught up in the Ballydoyle challenge, spend all our time on that, figuring out the possible combinations (there are 11 in total), because you could, while neglecting the formidable non-Ballydoyle challenge that is building up.

Sheikh Mohamed threw another 150 grand cat into the coop today by supplementing Rewilding and Buzzword.  No surprise in Rewilding, winner of the ‘Cocked Hat’ (ah here), he looked good at Goodwood and we knew that he was going to be added, he has a right chance, but Buzzword?  Maybe he’s going to be a pacemaker, and he is bred to improve for stepping up in trip, but he would want to improve dramatically just to run respectably, and 75K is a lot to spend on a numbers-maker-upper.

Workforce and Azmeel are the two for me who had gone under the radar, although Workforce has now been sussed, appearing as a little green beeping dot and now available at no better than 7/1, which is close to his true odds.

It’s still a guessing game though.  The Derby always is.  It comes up so early in the season when so little is known about these three-and-half-year-old athletes.  By how much have they improved (no horse in this year’s race has run more than twice this season, and Workforce has run just twice in his life, just once this season, when the bit slipped through his mouth), how will they handle the track, how will they handle the occasion?  And will they stay?  Ted Spread is the only one of the 15 entrants who has been over the distance.

We will know a lot more on Wednesday, when Aidan is set to announce his running and riding plans.  More conjecture, more column inches.  Fascinating innit?

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Action returns to Ballinrobe for the first leg of a two-day fixture, with four flat races for openers before the jumpers take centre stage in the closing three hurdle events.

The FBD Insurance Handiap at 7.30 is potentially the most interesting event before the switch of codes, with Dessie Hughes’ in-form Saponara sure to be a popular choice on her return to the level. The daughter of Key Of Luck has won her last two starts over hurdles, the most recent of them at Down Royal just three days ago, and is potentially well-treated in this sphere. However the likes of Aladdins Cave, Roscommon scorer Lynott and dark horse The Lady Granuaile should give her plenty to think about.

A full compliment of sixteen are set to line up for the preceding 1m1f 47-60 handicap and Blue Cross Boy, well drawn in fifteen, may finally be capable of breaking his duck in this country. The ex-Howard Johnson trained gelding has run well in defeat on his last two outings, not enjoying much luck in running on either occasion. Course and distance winner Coughlans Locke could be next best after a promising seasonal bow at Dundalk.

With Friday’s Cork winner Daggers Bond an eleventh hour absentee, the consistent Riverscape and Stretch The Truth may fight out the concluding 2m handicap hurdle. The latter, who shaped well on his return from a break at Limerick, was successful at tonight’s venue last year under Barry Geraghty and is now reunited with the jockey for the first time since.

With the Ballycorus Stakes, Saval Beg Stakes and the inaugural Flat v Jump Jockeys Challenge, there is something for just about everyone at Gaisce Raceday at Leopardstown on Sunday.

The immensely likeable Duff enjoyed one of his finest hours when landing the Ballycorus in 2009, and with the benefit of a run here earlier this month ought to be very hard to beat in his bid for back-to-back successes in the Group 3 event. Eddie Lynam’s seven year-old is best over today’s trip of 7f and is expected to reverse recent form with evergreen veteran King Jock.

The Saval Beg is if anything a stronger event despite only carrying Listed status, with Age Of Aquarius set to start a short-priced favourite after a satisfactory return from injury at Chester. The son of Galileo is already being spoken of as a live Gold Cup hope but classy mare Profound Beauty and potential big improver Haralan will ensure he doesn’t have things all his own way.

The inaugural Flat v Jump Jockeys Challenge provides another interesting aspect to the day, and it is the latter brigade who appear to have fared the better in Friday’s draw. Alain Cawley, who can still claim 3lb on the level, has fared particularly well and will have the leg-up on the likely favourites in both races, Alpine Glade and Sandymount Lady. The first-named makes considerable appeal in the 1m6f handicap after showing improved form over hurdles since joining Kildare handler Willie McCreery.

Lord Kenmare has developed into a very tough and consistent performer over the past year, and following a good third to the well-treated Bangalore Gold at the Curragh a week ago can be expected to go well in the 1m1f handicap.

Having made a decent return on Turkey’s defeat of Northern Ireland the other day, I was rather looking forward to tonight’s game involving Nigel Worthington’s men against Chile as I was pretty confident that they would suffer the second defeat of their end of season tour against the South Americans. Not, it seems, as confident as the World Cup finalists, however, for it turns out that Chile are also playing Israel this evening. At the time of writing it is not yet clear whether they intend bussing their national team between the two venues.

Assuming that’s not the case (and I haven’t bothered to check out the geography of it all) it’s hard to figure out what exactly going on and in the circumstances 1/4 on the home side really doesn’t look such a great bet. The Irish still really should lose, of course. Sure, they defended well enough for long spells considering the heat last time out and looked lively enough to grab a goal once or twice and so they might run their hosts close.

But the fact that they have had to undertake another long journey in recent days and the general weakness of their squad – a handful of Irish League players and a couple of teenagers, one of home is apparently trying to study for his A levels while on the trip – would suggest that they would be hard pressed to get a result against any half decent local side.

In the circumstances, I’m going to have a few quid on the hosts but rather less than I had originally intended. I’m also going to tie the money up with Mexcio to beat Gambia by a couple of goals and France to defeat Tunisia.

I still have a few quid going on to England to win by a couple of the goals in the wake of Ireland’s comfortable defeat of Algeria with Sporting Fingal’s defeat having covered everything else for the weekend.

So, a few hours to kill before I dig in in front of Setanta for the, er, big game. Then it’c a case of ….Give me a C!

Bet

€30 treble on Mexico (-1.5) to beat Gambia, Chile to beat Northern Ireland in a game involving three goals or more and France to beat Tunisia @ 6.7

Pending

€20 double on Ireland to be Algeria and England (-1.5) to beat Japan @ 3.18.

Despite 2mm of rain overnight on top of midweek watering the ground remains on the quick side ahead of Navan’s Saturday fixture, a seven-race all flat card which kicks off at 2.20.

The Four Masters caught the eye when staying on well to take fourth after a slow start on his debut at Leopardstown earlier this month, and with plenty of improvement likely David Wachman’s Ivan Denisovich colt is likely to take plenty of beating in the opening two year-old median auction maiden. Newcomers Eternal Youth and Deire Na Sli may provide his stiffest opposition.

Adajal brought off a four-timer when landing a valuable handicap chase at Cork last night and Ghetto Gospel bids to follow suit in the 1m2f handicap. Ger Lyons’ progressive gelding looked to have plenty up his sleeve when rattling up the hat-trick at Tipperary last week, but an 11lb mark will test his resolve and the likes of My Point Exactly and Accidental Outlaw are less exposed.

Napa Starr just failed to overcome a poor draw when going down narrowly at Killarney 2 1/2 weeks ago and having fared better on that front will be a popular choice to gain compensation in the 1m handicap. Lyons’ Central Moves is berthed widest of all on this occasion but certainly has the ability to figure.

Plenty of familiar names contest the 5f handicap at 3.20 and dual course and distance scorer Fairy Flow looks the one to beat following her second at Tipperary.

Question: How many column inches can you fill with Derby talk and thoughts this year?

Quanswer: How many have you got?

Maybe it’s the same every year, maybe every year’s Derby seems to be the most intriguing Derby ever.  Last year it was all about Sea The Stars, would he stay or wouldn’t he stay?  So what if we thought that he was a Derby horse before he won the Guineas, so what if there were no stamina doubts before he showed enough speed to win a Classic over a mile, if his breeding said more speed than stamina?  Heck, let’s not even make him favourite.

In 2008 it was New Approach, would he run or wouldn’t he run.  He probably wouldn’t.  In 2007 it was Authorized.  Actually it was Frankie Dettori.  Could Authorized carry him to his first Derby ever, his first in 15 attempts or so, erase the painful memory of 1995 when Lammtarra, the horse on whom he would later win the King George and the Arc, and Walter Swinburn, clad in the green and white stripes of Saeed Maktoum Al Maktoum, swooped past to beat Frankie and Tamure, owned by Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum.  (Oh the irony.)  The Derby before 2007 was to Dettori as the Grand National before 2010 was to McCoy.  Now, the Derby is to Dettori as the Grand National is to McCoy, and everything is right in the world.

But this year, it’s all over the place.  St Nicholas Abbey is the story for sure, last year’s wonder juvenile, winner of the quintessential juveniles’ Derby trial, the Racing Post Trophy, producer of three of the last eight Derby winners, with a searing turn of foot that told you that, despite his stout breeding, he could be a Guineas horse.  Even money in the first Classic, a sixth place finish did nothing to dent connections’ Derby confidence.  If Saint Nic turns up in the Derby at the peak of his powers, said Johnny Murtagh upon dismounting from Cape Blanco after winning the Dante on him – refusing to get carried away in the wave of optimism that usually carries the most recent as opposed to the best performance – the rest will be playing for places.

Confidence remained steadfast until this morning, when the betting exchanges – forget BBC World, it’s the betting exchanges that are always first with the news – produced the smoke signals that suggested that all was not as it should be in Camp Saint Nic, before the news broke that his work this morning had been a little less electrifying than might have been expected.  The net result was that Johnny was going to delay his decision on which horse would be top of his Derby dance card until nearer to the race.

Such details traditionally send the betting world into a spin: Wall Street upon the announcement that Greece is in trouble.  Saint Nic was friendless all day as the money came for Jan Vermeer, precipitating one of the greatest flip-flops in a day’s trading since the turtle’s mates got wind of the fact that the hare had been up drinking all night.  No better than 2/1 Saint Nic at the start of the day, 6/1 Jan, by the close of play (the time of writing) you can back the former favourite at 7/2 (over 4/1 on Betfair), while you won’t get any better than 3/1 about Jan Vermeer.

There will be more questions next week, more column inches. (Definitive answers to follow on Saturday.)

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

It has been 33 years now since London won a championship match, but the word around Greenford and Ruislip is that this coming weekend against Roscommon represents their best opportunity in a long time to break that run. The last time Roscommon travelled to Ruislip, they were very lucky to emerge with their season intact after scraping home on a 0-12 to 1-8 scoreline. This year, Roscommon are possibly at their lowest ever ebb, having been relegated to division four of the national football league, while Noel Dunning has been able to name a very strong London team for this fixture.

Winning this match could yet prove a bridge too far for the exiles – while they have a very good team, they didn’t perform well in the national league and other than their three point defeat to Carlow, they never looked like winning a match, other than against Kilkenny. Nonetheless Fergal O’Donnell would be foolish to understate the threat posed by the home side. Conor Beirne leads the side against his native county and with players like Paul Geraghty, Eamon O’Cuiv and Derek Hayden joining him down the spine of the team, there is plenty of talent there.

Roscommon’s league form picked up considerably in the latter half of the campaign and they looked much more like a division three team in the closing weeks when competing well against good teams like Antrim and Wexford, but losses are still losses and confidence can’t be high in the camp. Challenge match results for the Rossies have been very healthy, but even so this match is a survival mission with nerves likely to be on edge.

If this was a league match, Roscommon would be entitled to be favourites to win by nine or ten points, but in a championship game where the result is everything and when a big crowd should be in attendance, Roscommon will do well to win by five or six. With that in mind, London plus eight points at 10/11 is an excellent bet and well worth a 2pt stake.

London’s odds of 7/1 to continue their run in the Connacht championship will attract followers, but ultimately there will be better long shots over the course of the year so any bets would be best directed to the handicap market.

Those football supporters who like to mix heavy drinking with autograph collecting could probably do worse than hit Dublin’s select band of late night hostelries this evening. Anthony Stokes observed last week that he pretty much only goes out on the tiles these days when he feels “he’s earned it,”and with a very long season due to finish on the final whistle at the RDS  it’s the bet of the weekend that most of Giovanni Trapattoni’s men will feel that way a little after 9.30 this evening.

Whether they can wrap things up with a win remains to be seen but the Algerians don’t come to town in the greatest of shape. Having qualified for the World Cup thanks to a surprise play-off win over Egypt in Sudan last year, the “Dessert Foxes” then did rather better than expected at the African Cup of Nations where they made it to the semi-finals.

The seeds of their current problems were actually becoming evident back then in January, though, with the team only really winning one game of six in the regulation 90 minutes. That’s not to say that their extra time defeat of the Ivory Coast is anything to be sniffed at but it is probably fair to say that having lost their opening game 3-0 to Malawi they were a little flattered by leaving Angola as beaten semi-finalists.

Anyway, they haven’t played since and in the intervening months several of their more established players have either lost form or suffered injuries (Majid Bougherra of Rangers, for instance, will miss tonight’s game while Lazio’s Mourad Meghni is out of until next season) leaving coach Rabah Saadane to hastily draft in new faces, several of whom are former French youth internationals who have availed of the changes last year to FIFA’s statutes on eligibility.

The new players look, for the most part, to be pretty decent but the upshot is that several have yet to play for the North Africans just a couple of weeks before the World Cup kicks off and might well be handed debuts this evening. In the circumstances, 4/6 on Ireland to simply win the game might not be a bad looking piece of business while 6/1 against Kevin Doyle scoring first again looks promising enough given the sort of form he was in on Tuesday. Certainly, he looked livelier then than Robbie Keane who is a significantly shorter price to get on the score-sheet.

England also look fairly likely to win against when they take on Japan over the weekend while at home Sligo, Sporting Fingal and St Pats would all expect to win in the premier division. In the case of Sligo, I included them in a treble on a basis of a straight win at ½ but I subsequently saw that they are around 1.72 with an Asian handicap of -0.5/1 and if I had it all to do again, that’s the way I’d go.

* since I put this up earlier I’ve heard some of the team news from galway which suggests they’re going to be without a senior squad goalkeeper for the trip to Sporting Fingal. they had to go with an outfield player between the posts on at least one occasions earlier in the season but look set to use an Under-20 team member this time.

 The trip to Santry always looked tough for them and this is not going to help so I’m going to have a €120 single on Sporting to win at 4/6.

Bets

€20 double on Ireland to beat Algeria and Engand (-1.5) to beat Japan @ 3.2.

€10 on Kevin Doyle to score first @ 6/1.

€2.50 on Doyle to score first and Ireland to win 2-0 @ 28/1.

€2.50 on Doyle to score first and Ireland to win 3-0 @ 50/1.

€25 treble on Sporting Fingal to beat Galway, St Pats to win at Drogheda United and Sligo to beat Bray @ 4.5.

€20 accumulator on Cork City to beat Athlone, Shelbourne to win at Salthill Devon, Limerick to win in Longford and Wexford to beat Mervue @ 5.57.

€120 on Sporting Fingal to beat Galway United @ 4/6.

I’m not saying that Antrim would have beaten Tyrone had the McGourty brothers started the game, but I’m pretty sure that Antrim’s supporters on the handicap market would have gotten paid if the team had lined out differently. The final winning margin of four points left the handicap market as a tie – generally a good result for the bookie, and so it proved on this occassion.

In fact, it was the sole market which went our way last weekend. The favourites won every game – Tyrone, Meath, Louth, Waterford and also Laois hurlers. They were permed in every manner of bet; Tyrone and Meath in particular were backed relentlessly. It was painful viewing watching Niall Darby miss a bagful of scoreable frees. The pocket burned with cost and the heart winced with empathy at a man having a bad day at the office.

Kicking towards the other posts Cian Ward was giving nothing short of a masterclass. As a lover of the game you couldn’t but admire what the man was doing, but each time he dispatched a free from increasingly difficult and distant angles it kicked our book further into dark and demoralising places.

Once we had given up the ghost of making any money on the match market we were hoping that at least Offaly would do us a favour on the handicap – no chance! We had also laid that the game would be highscoring, anything over a 29 point total was going to trigger another round of payouts. The trifecta of cursed liabilities was on Cian Ward himself who had been well backed to score more than four points in the game. When all was tallied on Sunday evening I could have found ample use for a spare tongue such were the wounds to be licked.

Oh those punters love a highscoring game where the favourite beats the handicap and the freetaker has a game from the gods.

The action this weekend looks like its going to test the punters just a teeny bit more than last Sunday’s turkey shoots. Down travel to Donegal as the narrowest of favourites so we should see some two-way trade in this game. Donegal’s tendancy towards meltdown makes them a team I’m happy to oppose and if the punters are slow to take the 11/10 on the Tir Chonaill men then we won’t hesitate to push out the price to tempt some money back to our barren satchels.

Price savvy readers may have noticed that Ladbrokes are at an extremity of the market on the Cork v Tipp game. We go best price about Cork as although improving we are not convinced they are ready to resume dining at hurling’s top table yet. Tipp the nap.

Punt On!

Cork and Down Royal share the stage on a busy Friday and unusually for this time of year the balance is in favour of the jumping fraternity, who have the stage to themselves at the Mallow track and a couple of hurdle races at the evening’s other fixture.

With over €15,000 to the winner, the Cork Handicap Chase is the pick of the action and perhaps Adajal will prove up to defying a 14lb hike for the most recent of his three successive victories at Roscommon. Wednesday’s Punchestown casualty Archie Boy has to concede over two stone to Charlie Swan’s gelding when Denis Hogan’s claim is taken into account but should still be on the premises if this doesn’t come too soon.

Queiros Bleu, whose career has been rather blighted by jumping problems, appeared to appreciate the return to the smaller obstacles when runner-up in at Killarney earlier this month and makes plenty of appeal in the 2m4f Newmarket Handicap Hurdle.

The concluding 7f maiden is potentially the most interesting event of the evening at the northern venue, with Namid’s half-sister Dawn To Dance likely to take a fair bit of beating following a promising debut second at Naas just over a fortnight ago. Rockymountainhigh, a costly failure in a handicap on that same card, may give her most to do.

For a 47-60 event the 7f handicap is a very well-contested affair, with the likes of Killarney scorer Thistimesforgood, Diamond Fire and Sean Og Coulston all capable of figuring.