Willie Mullins was in scintillating form on the opening day of this year’s festival, recording a stunning treble in the three Grade 1 events, and it will be a surprise if the champion trainer fails to add to his tally on Wednesday. However his great rival Paul Nicholls, who had to endure the disappointment of Twist Magic failing to jump off in yesterday’s highlight, looks to hold the key to today’s featured Guinness Gold Cup in the shape of the mighty Denman.

The ‘tank’, as he is affectionately known, silenced many of his doubters when running a superb race to finish second to Imperial Commander at Cheltenham and a reproduction of that form should be too good for Mullins’ pair Cooldine (well behind him last time) and J’y Vole.

Tavern Times didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs when fourth in the Cheltenham Bumper and sets the standard in this afternoon’s Irish equivalent. It’s interesting that Patrick Mullins has opted to ride him instead of either of his father’s runners. Hidden Universe left his Cheltenham disappointment behind when scoring at Limerick and may be next best.

Blackstairmountain and Golden Silver both shrugged off hard races at Fairyhouse to score yesterday and stable-companion Jayo may follow suit in the 2m4ff handicap chase. The likeable chesnut remains well-treated on just a 1lb higher mark than when runner-up in the Leopardstown Chase.

At least the horses are en route, Icelandic volcanic eruption or no Icelandic volcanic eruption. It would take a seismic shift of, well, seismic proportions to keep the British from crossing the water to join in the clamber for the prize money that is on offer at Punchestown this week. “Where there’s a will there’s a way,” said Ferdy Murphy as he sent Kalahari King to Holyhead and readied himself for the Stranraer-Larne jaunt after racing at Hexham this evening. “We tried to get on a private plane,” said Paul Nicholls, “but that wouldn’t go either, so we now have to get on the ferry. I’m just glad we paid the extra £3 for the priority boarding passes.” Or something.

I thought that we were done with volcanic activity from Iceland. (Did you know that Iceland is really quite green and that Greenland is really quite icy, but at the first economic co-operation convention between the two countries, they decided that they would reciprocate their names in order to confuse would-be invaders?) It wasn’t enough that they built their banking system up like the first little pig and then held their wide-mouthed faces in their hands in a lot of shock and not a little awe as the big bad wolf’s little brother sneezed and it all came tumbling down. (Ed: Okay, so you could change the c for and r and leave the sentence the same, but at least we didn’t flood the continent with volcanic ash, did we, eh?) They had to go and ground northern Europe’s entire air fleet as well. Look, if we’re not going to be able to engage in any economic activity, you can be sure as hell that we are going to do our best to put the mockers on the rest of you.

This could go on for a while. They’re saying there’ll be no flights until this evening, but apparently the volcano is still doing its stuff, the trade winds are doing theirs and the Icelandic locals, with their waving carpets and blankets, are doing the rest. My brother has booked a flight home from Brussels on Wednesday, but he’s been told that he’s a 33/1 shot. Looks like he’ll be watching Punchestown from the Ladbrokes shop just off the Grand Place, and that Spanish oranges will be a scarce commodity in the Irish supermarkets this week. I know that I’m getting stuck into Wexford strawberry shares.

I’m not sure about this volcanic activity anyway. I mean, has anybody actually seen it? Sure, we have seen pictures on the telly, but didn’t we see pictures of the moon landing on the telly as well (ref: Moon Landing Conspiracy Theory)? It could be the best plan to boost economic activity instigated by the Irish government since the SSIAs, God bless them. We are an island nation, so if you close all the airports and ground all the airplanes and make it difficult to impossible for anyone to get off, we’re just going to have to all stay here and get on with things, make this place work. After all, it was we who put the country where it now is in the first place. Your Country Your Fault indeed.

As far as an economic recovery goes, perhaps J’y Vole can get things rolling on Wednesday.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com

The Ballysax Stakes has often proved a good guide to big races later in the season and the 2010 renewal, centrepiece of an eight-race card at Leopardstown, is an interesting affair.

Mikhail Glinka, placed at Group 1 level in France on his final start as a juvenile and previously successful at today’s venue, sets a good standard for the Ballydoyle team, but the likes of stable-mate At First Sight, Icon Dream and Mister Carter are all unexposed and capable of improvement.

The withdrawals of Jumbajukiba and Philario in the Listed Heritage Stakes have reduced the field to five, and though the going will be quicker than ideal Famous Name should still be hard to beat on his seasonal bow. Dermot Weld’s charge has a good record at this sort of level and has a few pounds in hand of Recharge at today’s weights.

Andantino was a big eye-catcher at Dundalk earlier this month and will be a popular choice in the 1m handicap, and his jockey Johnny Murtagh also holds solid claims in the concluding 1m6f handicap aboard ex-Ballydoyle inmate Bashkirov.

Tramore’s two-day weekend fixture concludes with a seven race programme, and Merry Cowboy might offer some each-way value in the 2m4f handicap hurdle.

Going conditions continue to dry out across the country, and it would be no surprise to see the ground ride on the fast side at both Saturday fixtures at Naas and Tramore. The County Kildare track plays host to a good quality flat card, its first of the new season, and following a Dandy Nicholls benefit in 2009 visiting stables may once again be to the fore in the featured Woodlands Stakes.

Kevin Ryan, who has done well with his raiders in recent seasons, is represented by former high-class juvenile Wi Dud while John Best saddles the very useful Sir Gerry. The latter acquitted himself well during a busy campaign at the Dubai Carnival and may prove the pick, with Tommy Stack’s Walk On Bye also worth watching.

Following a slow start Aidan O’Brien has struck form with a vengeance in recent days, and the champion trainer is doubly represented in the two year-old maiden at 3.20. Both his runners, Petronius Maximus and Juliet Capulet, are by exciting first season sire Holy Roman Emperor and the market should help clarify expectations in a race where there is no previous form to go on.

Send Me Home, who returned to something like his best when runner-up at Dundalk last week, and Inistearaght could dominate the 1m apprentice handicap, while Soldier Of Fortune’s half-brother Carraiglawn appeals as a potential dark horse in the opening 3yo maiden.

A two day jumps fixture in the south-east kicks off with a tricky-looking seven race card, but local hope Lord Ben may reward each-way support in the 2m maiden hurdle.

Fran Berry and Wayne Lordan have been quickest into stride in the 2010 flat jockeys championship, both riding doubles at Tipperary last night, and the pair could be amongst the winners again at Dundalk on Friday evening.

Berry, who has enjoyed a great start to his new job as first jockey for John Oxx, has several good rides for his guv’nor during the seven-race card with the best of them in the concluding 1m4f maiden courtesy of Behtarini. The son of Dalakhani was runner-up to the likes of Chabal and Jan Vermeer at two, and though disappointing on his seasonal bow at Leopardstown that was on unsuitably soft ground and he is sure to improve for the outing.

Dainty, who contests the 1m 3yo fillies maiden, is possibly the pick of Lordan’s mounts and a reproduction of her second to Berg Bahn at Fairyhouse on her final juvenile start should see her give Ballydoyle representative Ice Empress plenty to think about.

Drussell proved his effectiveness on polytrack when making a succesful racecourse debut at Wolverhampton just over a year ago, and makes plenty of appeal on his return to the level in the 1m4f handicap. He was admittedly well-beaten at Aintree last week, but that was in a Grade 1 novice hurdle and he had impressed in landing his two previous starts over timber.

It’s quite a week for derbies. First we have Spurs essentially ending Arsenal’s chances of winning the league at White Hart Lane on Wednesday, now we have the two big Manchester teams taking each other on at lunchtime tomorrow in what is a crucial game for both before Chelsea make the short trip to the same stadium in the hope of doing somewhat better. This may well be the sort of excitement the League of Ireland boys were hoping to generate when they made the top flight of the senior game here an almost exclusively Dublin affair.

There’s a piece in one of the papers today suggesting that Arsene Wenger was a little to quick to concede that the title was gone in the wake of his side’s 2-1 defeat this week but personally I can’t see it. In the interviews I saw with the Frenchman he was actually careful to say that his side would keep playing (he may have used the term “battling” but this would, of course, be slightly inappropriate) away until the game was mathematically up and that seems entirely fair enough.

Chelsea could still collapse but ahead of today’s visit to Eastland, at least, United would be the most likely beneficiaries. As things stand, though, even a repeat of Chelsea’s run in from a couple of years back would leave Arsenal under fierce pressure. The Stamford Bridge outfit drew their last five games then having started the run in first place but even if they sort of emulated that by taking just four points from their last four now, their London rivals would have to win all of their remaining outings.

Now, that’s not out of the question in itself. After all, they won six in a row prior to dropping five points in their last three games but, notwithstanding Robin van Persie’s highly impressive cameo the other night, their injury situation has worsened in recent weeks and the scale of the combined difficulties facing them is fairly well reflected in the 25/1 you can get on Arsenal ending up as champions at this stage.

Alex Ferguson, meanwhile, has described the game against City as the “most significant derby in a long time,” and it’s hard to disagree. There’s been a joke going around this week about the cloud of dust floating across Europe having been traced back to Eastlands where a cleaner had been asked to give the club’s trophy cabinet a bit of a once over.

United fans can laugh, for the moment, but the fact is that between the chance of top four finish and the prospect of very tangibly helping to deprive United of the title, it’s hard to think of the last time the Blues had so much to play for against their bitter rivals. Ferguson is scarcely helped either by the fact that, if his side do win today, they might still need some help from Liverpool when Chelsea go there in a couple of weeks and with United set to go one ahead of the Anfield outfit in terms of titles won if they overtake the current league leaders, the home side may well not be too upset by the prospect of losing to the Londoners.

Anyway, if United fail to win today and Chelsea do, then Anfield could be academic as Carlo Ancelotti’s men could effectively wrap the title up by beating Stoke at home next week. The White Hart Lane game is really hard to call. The visitors haven’t won there in three years, much the same amount of time that has passes since United last failed to win a league game in three consecutive attempts, but they did win the corresponding home game quite well earlier in the season.

Ultimately, I’ve decided to shy away from the Chelsea game, take City to beat United with my money back if it’s a draw and back Arsenal to win. I’ve also double my usual stake and down four doubles as well as a few accumulators in the hope of moving someway towards the €1,000 or so profit that I managed last year. It could, as it might for Frank Lampard and co. pushing for the win on North London, all blow up in my face for I head into the weekend with more than €200 in bets placed.

Not bad for a man who doesn’t like betting on the league here because there are so many derby games.

Bets

€50 double on Arsenal (-1) to win at Wigan and Villa (-.5/1) to win at Portsmouth @ 3.8.

€50 double on Fulham (-0.5) to beat Wolves and Stoke (-0.5) to beat Bolton @ 4.2.

€50 double on Mac City (0) to beat Man United and Newcastle (-.5) to win at Plymouth @ 4.25.

€50 double on Birmingham City to beat Hull City and Sunderland (-.5/1) to beat Burnley @ 3.16.

Six €2.50 accumulators on each possible five team combination from Arsenal (-1) to win at Wigan @ 2.0, Aston Villa (-0.5/1) to win at Portsmouth @ 1.9, Manchester City (0) to beat Manchester United @ 2.1, Birmingham City to beat Hull City @ 4/5, Stoke City (-0.5) to beat Bolton @ 2.06 and Sunderland (-0.5/1) to beat Burnley @ 1.76.

€2.50 accumulator on all six of the above.

It’s mighty craic on the Ladbrokes GAA desk pricing up the games this weekend in the hurling leagues I can tell you. We’ve got eight games across the top two divisons and to be honest five of them have little more consequence than a challenge match.

Team news is crucial here, though our prices are invariably released before the lineups are announced. Mayo’s trip to Cork last weekend is a case in point. Cork were already confirmed divisional finalists and took their foot of the gas, trying out a few fringe players. One school of thought is that these players will be so keen to impress that they’ll bust a gut and give absolutely everything in their performance, the flip side of course is that such players are on the fringes for a reason.

It has to be said the punters read that situation better than ourselves last weekend and Mayo were a popular selection at 5/2 to end Cork’s undefeated home run in the NFL stretching from 2007.

Happily for us they were also in a lot of multiples with a Tyrone side who were simply taken to school by Bernard Brogan. Pundits like to say “Never write off Tyrone” ever since they incorrectly wrote them off in 2008, but it saddens me to say that Tyrone now remind me of a shot boxer – outmanouvered and outhussled by hungrier contenders who couldn’t have layed a glove on them in their pomp. This side hasn’t put together a convincing performance in a competitive game since beating Kildare in the All Ireland Quarter Final last year, all evidence points to them being a team in decline.

Back to the hurling and the bill is topped by the meeting of Dublin and Limerick in what is effectively a relegation decider. These two sides have mustered just one win between them in 12 attempts this campaign, and that win looks a complete abberation on the form book as Dublin stunned Tipp at Parnell Park.

Dublin’s hurlers have enjoyed much goodwill and support since they emerged from the doldrums in recent times, but the honeymoon will end abruptly if this patchwork Limerick panel salvage the last spot in Division 1. What a moral victory it would be for Justin McCarthy though!

We make Dublin 2/9 favourites to win the match while Limerick are on offer at 7/2. It should be noted that Limerick gave Offaly the fright of their lives a few weeks back and got within seven points of Kilkenny last time out so there are definite indications that the Treatymen are starting to gel. I expect these lads to have the game of their lives against Dublin, but as alluded to earlier, maybe there’s a reason that these players weren’t in the original Division 1 panel. We give Limerick a 5 point start on the handicap.

The All Ireland Under 21 Football semi finals take place on Saturday evening and will offer in-play betting opportunities through the live coverage of Donegal v Tipperary on TG4. Michael Murphy has been sweeping all before him in this tournament and is available at 3/1 to score the opening goal of the game here. Donegal are 4/7 to win in normal time. However, with so little collateral form to evaluate on this competition it could well be worth waiting until the game takes shape before placing your bets.

Looking to the second semi final and the Dubs fell at this stage last year when Cork capitalized on a litany of missed chances from the Dublin forwards. This crop of metropolitan young men are 4/7 to lay that ghost to rest and get the better of Connacht champions Roscommon over 60 minutes.

Punt On!

Two other things about last Saturday’s Grand National before we leave it: Arbor Supreme and Backstage. The best place to start the search for next year’s Grand National winner is always this year’s Grand National. Even though Don’t Push It didn’t, seven of the previous nine winners of the National had had a previous go at the big fences, and if you can find reasons why a horse might improve from one season to the next, a la Hedgehunter, then you have an immediate angle.

The main worry with Arbor Supreme before Saturday centred on whether or not he would take to the place. He can be a tricky ride, and there was a danger that he would have a long look at the first fence, uh oh, don’t fancy this, get over the second fence, I really don’t think this is for me, and then stare into the abyss that is the third fence, the big ditch, probably a bigger ditch than The Chair despite the celebrity status that the latter enjoys, and decide he had enough.

On the contrary, he loved it. He took a little while to figure out the big fences, but he had them well sorted in his head by the time they rounded the Canal Turn and headed off down over Valentine’s and onto what they like to call the Racecourse Proper. Then Irish Raptor fell in front of him at the fence before The aforementioned Chair, and he had a look. He had to jump the fence, then jump half of Irish Raptor, not ideal when the next fence is The Chair, in all its narrowness, when space to jump the thing is at a premium. Arbor Supreme was a bit hesitant going into the fence, what’s waiting for me on the landing side, another stricken horse perhaps, a bit crowded, went to jump, wasn’t sure, did it in a kind of a hop and a skip motion, and fired Paul Townend out the side, race over.

It was a shame, but so was Hedgehunter’s effort in 2004 when he jumped 29 of the 30 fences like he was on springs, then fell down on the landing side of the last one, exhausted, and look what Hedgehunter did in 2005. Hedgehunter was trained by Willie Mullins, as is Arbor Supreme. Hedgehunter was an eight-year-old in 2004, as is Arbor Supreme. History tells us that nine and 10-year-olds have the edge in the Grand National, the race requires an extra year of two compared to your average staying steeplechase, presumably because of the magnitude of the task. Strength and experience is more important than youth and progressiveness in this one.

Hedgehunter was rated 141 when he ran in the race in 2004. Willie Mullins ran him in five handicap hurdles the following season, until the weights for the Grand National were published, and he was allowed in off a mark of 144. Then he won the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, then he won the National.

It is not difficult to envision a similar programme for Arbor Supreme. Now rated 145, if his campaign next season was geared so that he could get into the National on a mark that was close to that, he would have a big chance. It is a big sacrifice, you sacrifice a tilt at some of the big handicap chases during the season so that you can train a horse for one race, a race in which your challenge could easily be ended by something untoward, such is its nature, a race in which, habitually, less than half the field finish. However, now that Arbor Supreme’s owner, JP McManus, has a taste for Grand National success, he may not be averse to the idea.

Speaking of eight-year-olds and untoward happenings, Backstage was another who had settled into a lovely rhythm in Saturday’s race. He got further than Arbor Supreme, he was travelling really sweetly for Davy Condon and seemed to be enjoying the whole experience when, at the fourth fence on the second circuit, a loose horse fell in front of him and he cannoned headlong into him, brining his National challenge to an abrupt end.

It was a shame for Gordon Elliott who had been preparing Backstage for the National since he won a handicap chase at Ffos Las in August. However, the son of Passing Sale is another with time on his side, another eight-year-old who will be better equipped for the rigours of the Grand National next year.

The bookmakers are going 50/1 and 40/1 about this pair, respectively, but it’s too early to have a bet on next year’s Grand National, surely.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Tipperary stages its first fixture of the new season on Thursday, an all flat card due to be run on ever-improving ground, but with the exception of the final race the field sizes are slightly disappointing.

Tommy Stack has made a blistering start to the new campaign and the local handler has several interesting contenders during proceedings, kicking off with well-bred newcomer Mr Mojito in the opening two year-old maiden. However the Ballydoyle representative Emperor Hadrian could be hard to beat now that he has a run under his belt.

Another Stack debutant Nowewont will not have to be anything special in order to make a successful racecourse bow in the 5f Dandy Man Maiden, where Iron Major sets just an ordinary standard of those with previous racecourse experience.

Zorija Rose has already done her bit for her stable this term, forming part of that memorable four-timer at the Curragh’s opening fixture, and has solid prospects of following up in the 7 1/2f conditions race. Toraidhe and Worldly Wise appear the chief threats.

The latter’s trainer Pat Flynn saddles Cork runner-up Binocular in the closing 1m4f handicap, and although drawn wide the son of Observatory may just get the better of potential improver Ionisphere.

To Mayo fans of a sensitive disposition, now might be a good time to look away. To an outsider looking in, the Mayo fan is a peculiar breed of an individual, a very difficult specimen to figure out. After all, who can explain a situation whereby a book detailing the misery of the Mayo people on the football field, albeit a fantastically written one, is universally praised by those people, even more so than by those east or south of Ballaghaderreen?

Keith Duggan’s fantastic tome, The House of Pain, is an enthralling read simply because he brings to life the heartbreak and agony that the Westerners have suffered in their quest to bridge the gap between the modern game and 1951. To those outside the county, it is insightful – to those who were present for many of those demoralising days, it is as if they were being vividly relived, better than any camera could do.

However not unlike the old complaint that “if it wasn’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all”, so it is with Mayo football. Mayo football is relevant to the modern game because they have been prominent. Okay, they haven’t got over the finish line, but their near misses have been the stuff of legend. Many long suffering Mayo fans might agree, but surely that is infinitely preferable to the nothingness that has been felt by GAA supporters in some similarly populated counties in the east of the country.

Of course while the despair is manageable, it’s always the hope that’s the real killer – and so we ask Mayo supporters once again to avert your eyes – because this column is about to try and make the case for why 2010 might just be Mayo’s year.

Last Sunday’s win in Cork was interesting, but it wasn’t a great formline simply because so many important players on both sides were absent. What is interesting however is that it was yet another deserved victory and but for some truly appalling shooting against Dublin in Castlebar, we would now be talking about a Mayo team with seven league wins out of seven. John O’Mahony didn’t pull up any trees in his first couple of years at the helm, even though there was a lot to like about the manner in which they won the Connacht championship last year despite a good late Galway comeback.

This year however he has brought  lot of fresh blood on board, and that infusion appears to have been exactly what was required. Enda Varley has looked like an excellent find in a role where his county desperately needed something different, and when he is integrated into a forward line with players like Andy Moran, Alan Dillon, the O’Sheas and the Mortimers, it becomes clear that John O’Mahony now has the kind of balanced attack and indeed the bench options that are needed to build an All Ireland winning team.

The jury is still out on Tom Parsons at midfield, however Mayo will never be shorting of fielding midfielders – the county has always bred plenty of them.

The biggest recommendation of all however appears to be that they are finally getting the better of the goals battles within games. Mayo were always one of the worst culprits for losing games on scorelines like 2-9 to 0-13 or some other equivalent where they at the very least went score for score with the opposition, only to lose out because they failed to go under the crossbar enough times, if at all. This year, before Sunday’s game where they played without their two best forwards, they averaged a very healthy 1.5 goals per match. Even after Sunday, they have still kept every opponent to one goal or less. If they can keep finding the twine and denying their opposition, they can compete with anyone. Kerry don’t appear to be going well, Cork hold no fears for Mayo and they also enjoy a fantastic record against the Ulster teams.

It appears all set up for them – and at 16/1, the price hasn’t really changed to adjust to the new reality. It might be time to force a change in that thinking.

A 2pt each way bet on Mayo to win the All Ireland at odds of 16/1 is recommended – almost as much as reading Keith Duggan’s book is.