Having assessed the chances of the two main contenders for this year’s All Ireland Football championship, who between them account for half the book, our next step is to examine the chasing pack in order to assess where the value might lie amongst the pretenders to the throne. Tyrone at 9/2, Dublin at 10/1, Mayo at 12/1 and Galway at 14/1 are the four counties considered to be within striking distance of the Munster front runners, with 28/1 on offer bar the first six, so today we’ll look at each of these and their chances for success.

It’s a brave man who would assert with any confidence how Tyrone are likely to perform in this year’s championship after what was a very poor league campaign. One win over Cork, largely due to a couple of scrappy goals, and a late hammer blow to deny the Kingdom, were the only bright spots in a very disappointing campaign for Mickey Harte’s men. The early defeats to Derry, Monaghan and Mayo were largely disregarded as the team played with an experimental line up, but by the end of the league there was a lot on the line for the Red Hand men and the manner in which Dublin dismantled them in those circumstances will have been very worrying.

Having established themselves during the earlier part of this decade by operating at a high pace throughout the year, Mickey Harte adjusted to the needs of his ageing panel by stepping off the intensity during recent Spring campaigns. Their third All Ireland title, secured in 2008, was won on the back of a very moderate NFL season when the team finished with only three wins and a negative scoring difference. It was notable that year however that Tyrone also started slowly in the championship, eventually only taking off with a big All Ireland quarter final win over Dublin. Unfortunately for the Ulster Champions, 2010 doesn’t look like a good year to try and build your campaign through the qualifiers.

By round 2 of the qualifiers, at least one out Kerry and Cork, at least one out of Mayo and Galway, at least two out of Laois, Dublin and Meath and most of the province of Ulster will be in the backdoor draw. Add in counties who would be a nightmare to visit, such as Wexford or Sligo, and it becomes clear that there are simply too many pitfalls in the qualifier pot to suggest that any team would choose to go down that route.

If Tyrone start slowly this year, they will find themselves in real trouble against either Antrim or the winners of Donegal and Down, and losing either of those ties will plunge them into those shark infested waters. Of course they have the quality to emerge and it’s not like any other county will want to draw Tyrone, however it certainly doesn’t suggest that 9/2 is a viable betting price. There’s too much to do, too soon, for Tyrone to be worth betting on just yet.

If one team is the exact opposite of Tyrone in every way, it’s the Dubs. They have plenty of form on their side coming into the championship but their temperament is very suspect on the big day. The Dubs have plenty of depth, plenty of talent and no shortage of young players capable of playing a big part, but the lack of reliable old stagers who put in a seven out of ten display every day have been their downfall.

Anyone recalling last year’s All Ireland quarter final meeting between Kerry and the Dubs would be forgiven for thinking that 10/1 was a scandalously short price, but that performance was simply too bad to be true. They aren’t that far off the pace, they’ve addressed some of their problems by moving older guys aside and they look to have evolved well over the winter. Bernard Brogan is now at least as much of a threat as his brother and on paper, this Dublin side has every ingredient required to go all the way, possibly excepting the experience factor.

Now all they need to do is get every match played on paper – because in Croke Park, they’ve let themselves down spectacularly two years in a row now. Even the Dub players themselves would struggle to explain why and there is no way that they could be backed with confidence, but when you’re punting 10/1 shots, it’s not about looking for certainty – it’s about finding potential – and they have that in spades. It’s difficult to say whether or not they will finally play to their ability, but they could beat anyone if things fall their way and they get a bit of momentum up. A tricky draw in Leinster won’t do them any harm and right now they’re a team to have on your side.

Mayo should continue their habit of maintaining their involvement into August, but last Sunday’s result showed up a few classic failings. There aren’t enough reliable scorers, they miss too many goal chances and they can be swamped at midfield if faced with real power and strength. Conor Mortimer can be fantastic on occasions but he can also be curtailed very severely, unlike a Michael Meehan or a Colm Cooper who scores two or three times from play even on a bad day. In terms of value, they should give you a run for your money in that they tend not to lose to inferior sides, which includes most of the country – but it’s just too hard to see them beating Kerry or Cork, as this year’s winner will have to do.

Finally to the Galwegians, who this columnist will admit, have stumped him on more than one occasion. The depth of quality within Galway football is hard to ignore, but by now, their record of underachievement is equally conspicuous. Their loss to a very moderate Donegal team last year was frankly unforgiveable and even allowing for Joe Kernan imparting some of his bloody-mindedness, this team has proven time and again that they react in all the wrong ways when faced with any kind of setbacks, either over the course of a game or a championship. The Tribesmen have flattered to deceive too often for them to see any more of this writer’s money until they put something very different on the table.

Before Michael Shields finished his captain’s speech after hoisting the National Football League trophy, we at Ladbrokes.com had cut Cork from 5/2 in to 2/1 to lift Sam this September.

It’s a great achievement for Cork to have won the league without Graham Canty and John Miskella having played at all (bar a brief appearance from Canty in the glorified challenge in the final round robin game). Those two players were among the favourites for the 2009 Footballer of the Year title, but the guys stepping up from U21s are really pushing for starting places now.

Kerry have been dragged out to 3/1, and Tyrone out to 9/2 for this year’s All-Ireland. I just can’t see any team staying with Cork for 70 minutes this championship.

With one trophy in the bag, talk is now of a ‘double double’ for Cork. The clean sweep of 2010 NFL, NHL, Sam and Liam is on offer with Ladbrokes.com at 50/1.

Antrim were a great disappointment and gave a most uncharacteristic performance against Sligo. The tenacity and work ethic we’ve become used to seeing from the Saffrons and also St Galls this season was completely lacking. Not to take anything away from Sligo – who put in their best performance since winning the 2007 Connacht championship in my opinion – but I think Antrim allowed them the space to look impressive. Sligo have the longest and hardest route possible through the Connacht championship but they will be a force via the qualifers, and we have cut them in to 6/1 from 8/1 to reach the last eight this year. Antrim move in the opposite direction, as do Down.

It was a costly weekend from a trading point of view, indeed you may have heard the Ladbrokes pocket keening a little as I mentioned Antrim’s defeat. We had taken a view that the arrival of the St Galls players en bloc would improve a team which had already won the Divison 3 round robin with a week to spare. We saw some lumpy singles on Sligo at 5/4 and again at 6/5 while never laying anything of consequence on Antrim.

The real sickener however was Limerick. I can’t imagine we’ll ever again see a team that came within two points of winning a Munster title priced up at 11/5 to win Division 4. They were the dog in our NFL antepost book since we first priced it. They found their way in to every accumulator while we laid plenty of four figure singles at all prices from 11/5 down to odds on. When you look at the goal Waterford conceded, then the late save from point blank range followed by the shot off the woodwork at an empty net, and then Brian Scanlon chipping in a ‘45 to swing the game Limerick’s way it was clear the ball wasn’t going to bounce our way.

This weekend we’ve the NHL finals on offer where it’s difficult to split Galway and Cork, although if pushed to pick a winner I’d side with Cork. We’ve also got prices for all of the action in the Derry SFC this weekend, there’s plenty of hot favourites there, but no doubt someone will slip up – I just hope its not us bookies again.

Punt On!

Miss Gorica turned in a superb performance when defying a welter burden to capture a competitive handicap at Navan on Sunday and Joanna Morgan’s fantastic mare will deservedly be a major fancy for a quick follow-up in the featured Cork Stakes this evening. Fifteen have been declared for the 6f Listed event, and the likes of Snaefell and Walk On Bye – third and fourth on their recent seasonal bows at Naas – can also be expected to feature, along with last year’s Portland Handicap hero Santo Padre.

The July Mallow Town Race Night Handicap has attracted a good line-up including The Pier, who disappointed on his only start over jumps during the winter but had looked really progressive on the flat before then. Maal and Monteriggioni are two more seasoned performers who appear to hold a decent chance at the weights.

High Award created a very favourable impression when making a successful debut at the Curragh last month, and provided he handles the much better going this evening effectively the son of Holy Roman Emperor is likely to take all the beating in the opening Irish Stallion Farms EBF 2yo Race, while stable-mate Blasket Spirit could put it up to Echoes Of History in the Cork Racecourse Maiden.

It would have been taken almost for granted before this season started that if Chelsea could beat what were then regarded as their three main rivals for  the title – Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool – both home and away then the title would be theirs. Sure enough, as they head for Anfield on Sunday, their hopes of finishing first appear to come down to whether or not they can complete the six match winning sequence.

Carlo Ancelotti and his men might well have watched Liverpool’s Europa League exit to Atletico Madrid with mixed feelings on Thursday night. On the one hand, already without a couple of their best players, most notably Fernando Torres, they had to push themselves to the limit for two hours. On the other, a team that had lost at home just twice all season, now know there will be no European trophy to gloss over their failure on the domestic front and so they might be expected to rally themselves one last time in the hope of somehow snatching fourth place and a slot in next season’s Champions League.

The problem, though, is obvious enough. Even with City having to play both Villa and Spurs, it’s still very hard to see all three clubs slipping up to the extent that would required for Rafa Benitez’s men to leapfrog them in the table over the next week or so. It seems equally unlikely, though it is also mathematically possible, that Everton will overtake them for the Europa League spot and so Liverpool go into Sunday’s game with little to play for bar what’s left of their slightly battered pride.

Even that, of course, is a complicated matter with the thought of United overtaking them in terms of titles won, horrifying many of those with long affiliations to the club. Some of the newer players may not quite get how badly this would be taken by supporters but the likes of Jamie Carragher and Steven Gerrard will be keenly aware of it. Driving to a game in Dublin the other night, I heard one pundit after another insist that the team would not lie down because professional players of that quality simply don’t behave like that and I’m sure they’re right but the presenter then read out one text after another from fans emphasising how deeply they loved the club before going on to express the hope that Chelsea stuff them on Sunday and that is bound to influence things, no matter how slightly.

It will, in short, be a strange atmosphere at what is possibly the most intimidating ground in England for a visiting team under normal circumstances and the betting reflects the oddness of it all: I really can’t imagine when Liverpool were last 3/1 to win at home. Ultimately, of course, a lot depends on Chelsea for the Londoners have shown themselves capable of beating the best at a canter one day and throwing games away against far less accomplished sides the next.

If they end up finishing as runners up, it’s unlikely to be a defeat at Anfield they look back on as the source of their misery but rather the draws at places like Hull, Blackburn and West Ham. One presumes, at least, that if they do win this weekend then they’ll have enough about them to beat Wigan at home on Sunday week for visits to Stamford Bridge by teams of that sort of quality have tended to be bankers for Frank Lampard and co. even when they are not actually playing well.

Anyway, the more I think about it, the more I’m inclined to believe they’ll take the three points this weekend for Liverpool’s tired legs and mixed emotions should take the edge of the home side’s game. United should win at Sunderland too although I’m somewhat taken with 8/1 against Steve Bruce’s side securing a fifth successive victory at the Stadium of Light and I’m going to have a few quid on the title race ending in dramatic fashion this weekend with a few more on them at least running the defending champions close which, given that they haven’t lost at home since mid December does really seem a realistic enough target.

Bets

€40 treble on Bohemians to beat UCD, Tottenham to beat Bolton and Birmingham to beat Burnley @ 2.62.

€40 double on West Ham (0/+.5) to win at Fulham and Wolves to win at Portsmouth @ 4.14.

€10 on Chelsea to win at Liverpool and Sunderland to beat Manchester United @ 17.18.

€10 on Chelsea to win at Liverpool and Sunderland (+1/1.5) to beat Manchester United @ 3.78.

The first Guineas that I remember properly was Tap On Wood’s Guineas, May 1979, I was nine, I was sitting on the floor in front of the television in my grandfather’s house, and I was just generally beginning to realise that this horse racing lark was all fairly interesting. I was an immediate fan of Steve Cauthen, Kid Cauthen, the Kentucky Kid, as soon as he arrived over to the UK from the States after winning the Triple Crown over there on Affirmed as a mere teenager. I was Steve Cauthen in those days when I was riding the back of the sofa on the flat (it was a movable feast over jumps, I could have been Johnny Francome or Jonjo O’Neill, and once I was Mr AJ Wilson), and I backed most of the horses he rode on a Saturday, including Tap On Wood in the 2000 Guineas.

There was no Sunday racing, so the 1000 Guineas was run on the Friday, or maybe even on the Thursday, with the 2000 Guineas run on the Saturday. My grandfather, as both regular readers will know, God rest him, was a Joe Mercer man. He was a Joe Mercer man in the same way as Saint Peter was a Jesus Christ man. Mercer had already won the 1000 Guineas on One In A Million, and my grandfather had 1979’s equivalent of Liberia’s GNP going on to Kris in the 2000 in a double.

Kris had won the Horris Hill as a two-year-old and he had won the Greenham Stakes in his prep run for the Guineas as a three-year-old. Later that year, he would go on to win the St James’s Palace Stakes, the Sussex Stakes, the Celebration Mile, the QE2 and the Challenge Stakes, he would be crowned Champion European Miler, and the following year as a four-year-old he would win the Lockinge. He won 12 of the 14 races that he contested in his life, and he finished second in the other two. Alas, one of the second-place finishes was in that afternoon’s 2000 Guineas. The weight of my grandfather’s double was too much for him and Joe Mercer to bear, and he had to give best to Tap On Wood, who carried Steve Cauthen and my 10p, a featherweight by comparison.

The thing about the Guineas has always been the number of imponderables. Every year the Guineas comes around, and every year we base our predictions on a combination of juvenile form, pedigree analysis and hear-say. It’s all we’ve got. The best form on offer is inevitably juvenile form, Beresford Stakes or Racing Post Trophy or Dewhurst form usually carries more weight and momentum into the Guineas than Greenham or Craven or Free Handicap form.

That is as it should be, they are classier races, but the problem is that it is last year’s form. Horses mature at different rates during the winters that straddle their third birthday. They are adolescents at the end of their juvenile season, they are young adults at the start of their three-year-old season. We have seen them race over the course of a mere four months or so, then they spend seven months under wraps, almost twice as long, away from the public glare before we see them again. You can only (educatedly) guess at the degree to which they have progressed while they have been away. You can’t know for certain. Even their trainers can’t know for certain. The whole business is fraught with peril.

St Nicholas Abbey looked like a really exciting juvenile last year, he won his maiden impressively, won the Beresford Stakes impressively, then put in a breath-taking performance in the Racing Post Trophy, coming from what looked like a wholly unpromising position off a slow early pace to cut through his field like the proverbial sharp thing and win like a top class horse. And he could be a top class three-year-old. All the vibes coming out of Ballydoyle suggest that he is, and it appears that Aidan O’Brien has been training him for Saturday for a little while now.

From a racing perspective, you hope that he is the real deal, because this fellow has attracted more public attention at this stage of his career than Sea The Stars had gained at this time last year. Imagine St Nicholas Abbey were to go and win the Guineas on Saturday by six lengths, confirm himself the three-year-old that he looked like he would be when he was just two, imagine the interest he would generate, on and off the racing pages, and the benefit to racing of another potential superstar. It’s all good stuff. There is something for everyone in a top class horse.

That said, he is a 6/4 shot. From a betting perspective, that’s not good enough for me in a Guineas, with all its imponderables, and set to be run on ground faster than he has ever encountered, despite the recognised fact that he could win out of the park. If he does, even though he won’t be carrying any of my money, there is a large part of me that will cheer loudly.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Taking a break from the football analysis for the moment, the national hurling league finals in division one and two take place this weekend in Semple Stadium, and one could be forgiven for assuming that a little bit of Munster hurling bias was factored into the prices. The division two decider between Clare and Wexford looks, on all known form, to be a quite even match. A quick look at the respective formlines of the two protagonists this year confirms this. Both sides hammered Down and won easily against Kildare and Westmeath, both sides beat Laois by four and they each drew with each other. Wexford won well against Antrim but fell to Carlow, while Clare played poorly against both and limped home in each case by a single point – overall balancing out.

Even going back a little further into last year’s championship, Clare did perform marginally better in that they hurled well against Tipperary for half the game and won the relegation match between the two counties, but Wexford arguably had the best performance that either county put on the board in their win over Offaly. Nothing that either county has done in the last eighteen months suggests that one should be favoured over the other, making the current two point handicap somewhat baffling.

The utterances of Colm Bonnar this week are very worrying from a Wexford point of view in that they reflect a mentality which is rooted in tradition and entitlement rather than realism and determination. Wexford are in division two on merit and nothing they have done this year suggests that they were way out of their league when hurling in the second tier. Bonnar suggested that getting dedicated servants of Wexford hurling like Keith Rossiter and Diarmuid Lyng to tog out would be difficult if promotion wasn’t secured this year – which quite frankly, doesn’t tally with the determined and passionate attitude that those two players have displayed every time this writer has seen them hurl and instead sounds very much like whinging. It would have been much more encouraging if Bonnar had come out and said that his team are aware of how much division two hurling is hurting the development of the sport in the Model County and how they would support a two up and two down system (as would most genuine hurling followers) but that for now, the system is as it is and how Clare simply have to be beaten on Saturday evening.

From a Clare perspective, the fact that four of their games this year went right down to the wire defied the thinking that they would be playing uncompetitive games in this division, but one wonders if they really understand the importance of this weekend’s tie. If asked whether they would prefer to win this match or the Munster semi final against Waterford, it’s safe to say that most Clare supporters would probably elect to win the championship match in Ennis – despite the fact that this tie is much more important for the overall health of hurling in Clare. Wexford can certainly attest to this, having beaten Offaly in two of three meetings last year, but lost the one that counted most.

The factor that tips it over the edge is how both counties concluded the campaign. Clare had a poor outing against a disappointing Kildare team, while Wexford were able to step on the gas against Antrim and win a match that they badly needed in some style. What momentum is there is definitely on Wexford’s side. If push came to shove and this match was priced as an even game, this column would have a slight inclination towards backing Wexford right now, but at the odds on offer, the strawberry men simply have to be backed. For the purposes of a recommendation, we’ll play it safe and suggest a 3pt bet on Wexford plus two points in the handicap betting at even money. For good measure, we’re also going to put a 1pt bet on Wexford to lead at half time and win the game, at odds of 7/2.

The division one final is a bit trickier to assess and the final round clash between the two counties was certainly of no help in that regard. Neither team was hurling at even 50% intensity in that game. Galway’s better strength in depth was rubber stamped by their win and nothing that has happened in this league campaign suggests that Cork have overtaken the Westerners in the overall pecking order. The gap has certainly been closed on last year’s championship standings where Galway were comfortably the better team, but the form of Iarlaith Tannion and a few others suggests that Galway have done enough to stay ahead of the Rebels, something endorsed by the All Ireland prices that see Glaway trading at 5/1 while Denis Walsh’s men are two points higher. This column has an antepost bet on the account on the Galway men and for that reason we will stop short of suggesting doubling up, but for those who don’t have that docket in their wallet or at home, a small wager could be worthwhile.

So often the victim of waterlogging, Tipperary are unlikely to face any such problems for the latest of their Thursday evening fixtures, an eight-race National Hunt card kicking off at 4.45.

The two divisions of the beginners chase afford an opportunity to several horses who plied their trade at a high level during the winter, and Wickham Street is preferred to Prince Roco in the opening half. Tommy Stack’s gelding ran well behind very useful sorts like Sports Line earlier in the season and will certainly appreciate the lively ground conditions.

Corskeagh Royale is one of the likely market leaders for the second division, but he has spurned several similarly good opportunities already and with his stable going through a lean spell is probably best opposed. Diophas and P’tit Fute are the obvious alternatives.

The 2m handicap hurdle features several contenders who have good form on the level to their name since they last competed in this discipline. Night Spark recorded his second victory on Dundalk’s polytrack last month and now has a chance to race on a decent surface over flights, but he may have to give best to the quirky Grantstville. Tom McCourt’s mare should be cherry ripe following her recent return on the level and will have the invaluable assitance of Paul Townend, who won on her at Killarney in 2008.

Having become seriously sidelined yesterday I can belatedly reveal that I backed Inter Milan to survive their trip to the Nou Camp last night and go on to Madrid for the Champions League final. I can’t really say, in all honesty, that this very minor success has left me in much of a mood to celebrate.

For one thing, it’s worth pointing out, I backed them with a handicap of +1/1.5 so Barca’s late goal has taken a good deal of the profit out of the situation and for another, I only had Inter as the first half of two doubles involving Liverpool (at -.5/1) and Fulham (0/-.5) with the three of them wrapped up together in a modest treble to boot. So there’s nothing to get too excited about quite yet.

I can’t, in any case, get beyond the fact that I’m actually bitterly disappointed that Barca didn’t go through last night. True, Sergio did behave fairly despicably for the sending off, it might well have merited a second booking anyway but the idea that he was really hurt is absurd and at some stage the game’s ruling bodies have to start doing something about such blatant playacting.

For Inter to get through under any circumstances having been reduced to 10 men for the bulk of an away game in Barcelona is, of course, quite an achievement but much of their carry on was also fairly lamentable afterwards with the constant time-wasting and relentless cynicism of their approach completely killing off a spectacle that had been eagerly anticipated by neutrals.

Jose Mourinho’s men had been lucky to take a lead into the game in the first place given that one of their goals in the first leg had been offside while the Catalans also should have had a penalty. The rest of us, it seems, were rather less fortunate that they had something to dig in for.

Aside from all that, though, I sort of felt that all the “defending masterclass” stuff from the boys on TV (the same lads who pointedly failed to acknowledge what everyone else knew last year; that Barcelona had only beaten Chelsea due to a succession of crazy refereeing decisions) was rather overstated.

Don’t get me wrong, Inter did defended very well in the circumstances but having survived an appalling miss by Bojan late on and then conceded one goal, they only survived through to the end because the hosts had an equaliser disallowed due to a remarkably harsh handball decision.

Anyway, it’s all academic now. Inter are in the final, which they will be favourites to win, and I have about €33 going on to both Fulham and Liverpool with about €13 going on to the pair of them. Hamburg sacking their coach after their drubbing at the weekend seems like quite a gamble but then it’s one I wouldn’t have minded seeing Liverpool take.

Still, it is their home form that has prevented this season being far more disastrous and Rafa, like me, will be hoping that his boys can pull yet another face saving performance out of the bag.

Following on from our assessment of Cork, no examination of the All Ireland football championship would be complete without a study of their neighbours to the west, Kerry. As the aristocrats of Gaelic Football and the reigning champions, they will be on everyone’s shortlist this year and it would be foolish to consider them anything but front runners for the Sam Maguire, however this column is not about establishing whether or not Kerry will win – it’s about evaluating their chances with a view to the 3/1 odds offered about a second consecutive all Ireland title for Jack O’Connor’s men.

It’s unlikely that there are too many Kerry backers out there right now on the back of a mediocre league campaign and with the team having lost several crucial players. Aidan O’Mahoney’s withdrawal compounds the pain felt due to the absence of central players like Dara Ó’Sé, Tadhg Kennelly and Tommy Walsh and even though he was closer to the end of his career than the start, Jack O’Connor will miss the Garda’s presence. The Kerry manager is lacking strong defensive options and will be highly conscious that his backline, Killian Young excepted, have a lot of miles on the clock.

The full fitness of players like Marc and Tomás Ó’Sé will be crucial, as will the condition of Tommy Griffin and Mike McCarthy who look set to man the central positions once again. At the other end, this Kerry team should at least be able to muster up plenty of scores with the attacking talent at their disposal. In fact dismissing Kerry on the grounds of issues in certain positions is rarely a good ploy at this stage of the season since the Kingdom always possess a lot of depth and even unheralded footballers can perform at the highest level.

However another perspective would exist if we were to presume one different thing in 2009 – if David Kelly had scored that penalty in Tralee. If Sligo had knocked out Kerry that day, as could so easily have happened, it would have been remembered as one of the worst Kerry seasons of all team. They were second best to Cork in both the drawn match and the replay, they were almost reeled in by a very poor Longford team and they could easily have fallen short to Sligo.

The Antrim game in Tullamore was remarkable in that there was a distinct point early in the second half where Kerry were visibly rediscovering their form and ability, but even allowing for this, no-one expected what happened against Dublin. From then on, they hung in against Meath and overpowered Cork, bringing their rivals’ natural insecurity to the fore in the process. None of this alters the fact that Kerry essentially tiptoed their way through the All Ireland series, assisted in no small part by their avoiding of many of the bigger guns in the earlier rounds.

This year an early appearance in the qualifiers again looks to be on the cards. Whatever about getting past Cork in Croke Park, they’ll do well to overcome the Rebels in six weeks’ time, as they should have to do, with Cork in such good early season form. This year the qualifiers should be even more fraught with danger than usual. Dublin have a very tricky path through Leinster and will either fall into the qualifiers themselves or else leave a few very dangerous counties like Meath and Laois in there instead, while either Mayo or Galway will enter the qualifiers from round two in Connacht. Ulster will invariably leave a few extremely dangerous teams swimming in the qualifier waters, all of which means that it’s a huge ask for Kerry to build an All Ireland winning campaign this year and they’ll do amazingly well to do so.

Of course Kerry can win, but with no real outstanding new talent, with so many absentees and with such a tough road to travel, 3/1 is definitely not a betting price. In fact, a better bet might be to see if Ladbrokes will lay the other side of their special 2/7 about Kerry to reach the semi finals. If the Magic Sign were to offer 9/4 about the Kingdom failing to make it that far, this would be a price well worth taking advantage of.

That’s not to state that another “phoenix from the flames” type resurrection like last year wouldn’t be on the cards, but at the prices, you’d pay to see.

Punchestown got it right last week in many ways. They got it right with the weather, and I’m not sure that Dick O’Sullivan’s denials that he has a line into the Big Man are to be fully believed. Floods two weeks before the Festival started, watering in the days leading up to the first day and sunshine all week:

“Go figure,” said Pythagoras.

They got it right with the results as well. If you had to go back now and engineer a set of results that would generate more interest or excitement of general bonhomie, you wouldn’t change a jot. Nina Carberry and Katie Walsh fighting out the finish to the very first race on the very first day, The Ladies Cup, ironically, Nina coming out on top, exacting her revenge for coming out the wrong side at Cheltenham (beat me, would you?), Katie getting her winner for the week on Battlefront, owned by her mum, trained by her dad, in the two-mile handicap chase on Thursday and then landing another for good measure on Dorset Square in the handicap hurdle on Saturday, Nina notching another on Freneys Well in the Irish Field Chase on Saturday, after she had been beaten on him by stable companion L’Ami in the La Touche Cup two days earlier.

“Sure it’s great,” said Nina.

They got it right with War Of Attrition running out of his skin to finish second in the Gold Cup and then retiring, and they got it right with the trumpet blast that accompanied him. They got it right with the British winners of a couple of the feature races, Planet Of Sound for Philip Hobbs in the Gold Cup and Evan Williams’s Barizan in the Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle, keep the raiders coming back, keep their appetites whetted, we need the raiders, a wholly domestic affair would just not be cricket at all.

“We’ll be back,” said Evan.

They got it right with Hurricane Fly and Quevega, every Festival needs its champions, and they got it right with Paul Townend, check his birth cert, he must be 29 or 39 or 49, there is no way he is only 19, or if he is he needs to go to the Wizard of Oz and get a working set of nerves, or some hot blood to run through those ice-veins of his. And once again, they got it spot on with Willie Mullins. Twelve winners last year, 12 winners this year, despite the fact that at the start of the week he said he couldn’t possibly do it.

“No way,” said Willie.

They got it right with the attendances, in fairness to them. Over 93,000 clicks at the turnstiles, plus a couple who jumped over the wall, just 2% down on last year despite the ever worsening economic climate and the Black Monday (volcanic ash-induced) that kicked off the week. They also got it right with the Tote, over €4 million bet through the windows, up 24% on last year, helped out by the new agreement with the French punters, which allows PMU players to bet directement into the Irish Tote. Plenty of them did, €830,000 worth, or thereabouts, which was almost exactly the amount by which Tote turnover was up. Fair play to the Tote, needs must in these chastened times, innovation is the mother of all invention, or something. It isn’t enough that the French built the M50 for us, they have to prop up our Tote as well. We’ll take all the help we can get, of course, now that Breakfast Roll Man has emigrated.

“I’m out of here,” said Breakfast Roll Man.

The one boat that wasn’t lifted by the tide of bonhomie was the betting ring boat. No best-dressed couple in here, no French money to buoy the market, and turnover was 18% down on last year. It is an extremely worrying trend, and it is definitely a trend at this stage, not just a blip, a spiraling one that is going the way of the snake, not the ladder.

It is particularly worrying because attendances were so good, the people were there, they just weren’t betting in the ring. Maybe people don’t have as much money to bet as they used to have, but the Tote figure was good, even the Tote figure for Irish punters wasn’t bad. Maybe the high rollers have left. Maybe people are having their bets off course before they go to the races. Maybe they are going to the races all right, but betting on their mobile phones. At the very least, we need to know the reason for the continuing decline. Only when the reason is known can a solution be sought. The betting ring is an integral part of the Irish racing scene, has been for decades, but it won’t be for much longer if the current trend continues, and if nothing is done to arrest its decline.

“We’d better do something,” said somebody. And fast.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.