The FA Cup has been much maligned in recent seasons, with mid-ranking Premier League teams sending out shadow sides and television audiences falling. The 2008-2009 denouement of this world’s oldest Cup competition has the potential to be a box-office success.

This year’s semi-finalists currently occupy the first six places in the Barclays Premier League – and no matter what happens, interest in this year’s final is sure to be high. Apologies, of course, to fans of Portsmouth and Cardiff – but the 2008 decider did not exactly capture the hearts and minds of football fans, apart from those who followed the finalists themselves.

First up is Arsenal v Chelsea at 5.15pm on Saturday. I was listening to John Giles on the radio during the week and he claimed that Arsenal have the look of a team who can winy any match at the moment. There is no doubt that the Gunners have stepped it up in recent times, and their performance in disposing of Villarreal mid-week was quite impresive.

Chelsea, too, have picked it up under the watchful eye of  Hiddink, even though their prospensity to concede goals and Cech’s frailties, would be a worry in recent outings.  A classic is in store, with Chelsea’s strength and the returning John Terry, just about shading it for the Blues.

An FA Cup final involving Chelsea and Everton is 5/1 with Ladbrokes, though Everton’s part in making that happen is a tough ask in that they have to face a Manchester United side who have designs on winning everything.

If this match was played at a traditonal semi-final venue like Villa Park, you would give David Moyes side a great chance, but the vast expanses of Wembley Stadium is sure to suit the Red Devils more. Make no mistake, this will be a tough uncomprimising battle that may be settled in extra time, with Everton doughty enough to hold their own at 0-0 for 90 minutes (8/1).

Crucible Drama?

Back in the 1980s, the World Snooker Championship attracted far healthier viewership than it does now. The irony is that the snooker played now is of a higher standard, though the public perception of those who play it is not met on met with any heightened interest or fascination.

Ronnie O’Sullivan should be champion on 4 May – but the Rocket has imploded and Ali Carter has predicts that a similar fate awaits O’Sullivan this time around with John Higgins and Peter Ebdon in the same half of the draw.  Carter’s money is on Ebdon (33/1) if he was take himself out of the equation, while O’Sullivan reckons the title will be won by him or John Higgins (12/1) – the same price as Ali Carter by the way.  Needless to say if the Rocket steers off course, there will be at least four or five players vying for his crown.  

Mixed Offerings

Racing this weekend sees the Scottish Nattional at Ayr.  One of my Grand National fancies Brooklyn Brownie bids to atone at a price of 20/1, though my preference this time is for Sound Accord (20/1) with Barry Geraghty in the plate.

On the flat, the Greenham Stakes at Newbury sees Jim Bolger send over Vocalised who impressed when winning on his seasonal return at Curragh, while the trainer could bag a double if Maoineach takes the Dubai Duty Free Stakes

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……….not in the betting lists anyway. Or, at least, not yet.

They are 4/1 fourth-favourties for the 2009 Championship, 8/1 for the Grand Slam and 33/1 for the World Cup.

Basically, they are big prices for two reasons – first, Ireland aren’t getting respect from the market for this year’s Slam and second, the fixture list is, in terms of the received wisdom at least, against them in that they will have to beat both France and England away from home to win a second Slam in a row.

Essentially, the market reckons Ireland’s RBS 6 Nations Grand Slam is a bit of a performance ceiling. I actually take the other view and actually expect them to improve as they get used to things, and as one or two new players come on stream. Out-half and the tight five – especially John Hayes at tighthead prop – remain a slight concern but other teams also have plenty of issues to contend with.

Ireland were actually unlucky at key moments this year. Arguably, they should not have given France as much of a chance as they ended up doing on the first day. They should also not have let England get within a point, suffered a slow start (and dreadful refereeing) against Scotland, and had very poor discipline against Wales – only against Italy did they really react strongly to whatever adversity came their way.

But the key question is: ‘which side is the most likely to improve?’

Take England and France first.

England have a dreadful tendency towards mediocrity and will, I believe, continue to be an in and out sort of team under Martin Johnson. They have big performances in them, but frankly they are too driven by external factors – the press – and not enough by an inbuilt desire to succeed. France have had the jersey diminished and the aura stripped away by two years of meddling by Marc Lievremont. They are mentally much weaker now than they were around the time of RWC 2007. The player quality is still there but it will be years before we appreciate exactly how much damage the current coach has done.

The market is factoring in a recovery from both, but with Johnson and Lievremont in charge that must be a massive doubt.

Wales are slightly different in that they are capable of doing the business and having done the Slam in 2008, we know they can handle this type of fixture list. Gatland as a coach is also streets ahead of the two mentioned above. Crucially though, Wales play Ireland away from home. Also against them is that they have been figured out a touch and with other teams now capable of playing up to their intensity benchmark, I think they will actually find it quite difficult to get extra performance from this group. Does Gatland have anything to offer except ‘more of the same, (only moreso….)’?

France and Ireland now both know they can dominate the Welsh up front, having done so this year, and England may also have a chance of doing that at Twickenham next year having rattled them at the Millennium this year.

We may have seen the best Wales have to give.

The other key question in relation to the prices is whether you think Ireland will continue to ‘overperform’ under Declan Kidney, or whether they will quietly bugger off, let England, France and Wales at it, and dine out on the Slam for the next 20 years.

For me, that is highly unlikely. Ireland will continue to improve and with the maul set to make a return should actually find the general playing conditions suit them better.

RECOMMENDED: 1 pt each on Ireland to do the 2010 RBS Six Nations Grand Slam (8/1) and win the 2011 World Cup (33/1).