What a few weeks it has been, with medals at the European Indoors;  an unexpected octet of winners at Cheltenham and the exploits of one Ruby Walsh, Grand Slam heaven in Cardiff and a World title holder in boxing.  Hopes are high that Aintree will bring more success, but expectations are lowered when the Republic of Ireland soccer side are mentioned. No one will doubt their honesty, not even their manager, but if they make a World Cup play-off, you can’t help but think they will eventually come up short.

I don’t want to sound pessimistic – but a crunch tw0-legged affair could be their undoing next November with their light weight midfield likely to be exposed by sides who will offer more of a threat than the Bulgarians.

As for now, the Italians lie in wait in Bari. The World champions are not an intimidating force, but will be wary of the ‘Trap’ that may befall them on April Fool’s day. Lippi, an admirer of the said Trapattoni, will have his side well prepared, but don’t expect them to roll over the Irish.

John Giles is confident that Trappattoni’s game plan of containment and lack of general lack of creativity can serve the Republic well and that a draw  is possible. A scoreless draw is avaliable at 7/1 with Ladbrokes.

It may not be a pretty sight, but Trap’s side, possibly without Aidan McGeady and definitely missing Damien Duff, and not to mention the absent duo of Andy Reid and Stephen Ireland, would welcome such an outcome.  If the Italians decide to cut loose and show their old boss a thing or two a 3-0 victory for them is worth 9-1. 

A defeat for the Irish would not be a disaster as second place is still well within their grasp – but away trips to Bulgaria and Cyprus could yet prove to be more daunting than the visit to Trap’s homeland. Expect more twists and turns.   

Watch Italy v Republic of Ireland on RTÉ Two television and on www.rte.ie/live from 7.00pm on Wednesday, 1 April.     

Ireland will beat Wales…..

At least I strongly believe that they will.

Analyse thought process for wishful thinking and excessive patriotism….that’s a negative.

In fact, I’ve been trying to think of reasons Ireland won’t win for all sorts of reasons this week and I’m basically stuck on an stunning performance from Wales doing us.

I don’t see that happening for two reasons: first, Ireland have the initiative in this match, and Warren Gatland knows it. They fear us, and that is why he has opted to try to stir things up in the media this week.

The capacity for us to take the steam out of the game if that is needed is there.

Second, and related to that, is that our forwards are superior to the Welsh. That is why Ireland have been able to win playing ‘boring’ rugby so far.

If Leinster and Munster have shown us anything these past few years it’s that the teams who need to chuck the ball about to win are the ones to be wary of for betting purposes.

Flawed diamonds who get it done it through the pack? Every time…..

Ireland should be favourites in the book for this game but they’re not – and at 5/4 they are a proper backing price.

Recommended: 3 points, Ireland to beat Wales at 5/4.

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The -3 handicap available from Ladbrokes last week (see below) was a must bet and has now been pushed to a more realistic -7.

That doesn’t mean all the value has gone out of the handicap market however.

That is particularly the case at the ‘blowout’ end of things.

A word of warning – sometimes teams that deserve to get smashed don’t, and sometimes teams that don’t deserve to get smashed do. Scotland may just be the type of team that deserve it.

Wales should have done it, but played too narrow and made too many changes to push home their advantage, while France failed to put the physicality into their game required to really dominate but won anyway.

Ireland ought not make the same mistakes. They will be exceptionally physically committed – with those four changes adding extra energy and vigour – and they will want to score as many points as possible from minute one to 80. There will be no let-up and if they get on top they will continue to work hard, simply due to the fact that the Six Nations Championship may end up  going to points difference.

As Irish teams have found in the past, that type of motivation is also likely to be far more powerful and positive than the Scots, who are playing for respectability.

Final note – the ref is Jonanthan Kaplan, which could be a slight concern if he takes against Ireland for some reason. However, Ireland play refs very well and should be the more dominant and disciplined team at the breakdown. They could well get the majority of calls there, much as Wales did against England.

On that basis, the Ireland -20 point handicap is a decent price at 9/2.

In the other games, France should beat England but you can’t write off one of those ‘Land Of Hope And Glory’ performances. That said, English captain Steve Borthwick has been a hugely unimpressive figure throughout and there must a question mark over whether he can really unite this team.

Wales should beat Italy but I could see it being a little more nervy than they are bargaining for. Three bad performances and the 10 Welsh changes will motivate the Italians, though their tackling and discipline has been much weaker this year than in the past. Possibly a scratchy first half followed by Wales strecthing away a bit to win by 25-7 or so……

Recommended: 2 points, Ireland (-20) to beat Scotland at 9/2.

Forpadydeplasterer, Garde Champetre and Quevega provide me with some notable returns on the opening day at Cheltenham. The Irish, with four winners, did better than expected. Will Irish domination at Prestbury Park kickstart our embattled economy – instiling a greater sense of worth to all Irish citizens. Let’s hope so!

In any event, it’s onward to day two. The first race – the National Hunt Chase Challenge, Niche Market at 7/1 is the fanct, but Tony Martin has so often in the past struck a winning blow in these types of races. I’ll side with Drumconvis each/way at 14/1

In the 2.05 – the Ballymore Properties Hurdle – Wille Mullins can get his second winner of the Festival with Mikael D’haguenet at 3/1.

In the RSA Chase, I’m prepared to give Carruthers  (6/1) another chance after his below par run at last year’s Festival. His runs so far this season would indicate he is keen to atone and make the evergreen Lord Oaksey a happy man.  Cooldine for Willie Mullins and What A Friend for Paul Nicholls are likely to be in the shake up.

So to the Champion Chase at 3.20, where Master Minded is expected to romp home. It’s more of a race to watch the exploits of a class animal. Without Nicholls’ performer, take Big Zeb to be the best of the rest.

In the Coral Cup at 4.00 Kirbybroguelantern at 33/1 is my fancy to find a place in what is always a difficult race to make sense of.

In the Champion Bumper at 5.15 – Willie Mullins has his usual strong team with Gagewell Flyer my pick, but Dermot Weld’s Rite Of Passage is the obvious threat.

The Cheltenham Festival is upon us after all the waiting. A build up that began towards the latter end of last September will culminate in what will hopefully be four days of thrilling action, and something to take our minds of fiscal crisis, tax levies, belt tightening etc.

RTÉ Sport will be on hand to bring you the best of the coverage on television, radio and online. For more details, click here.  

Colm Murray reliably informed me that favourites do not have a good record in the opening event of the Festival – the Supreme Novices Hurdle (1.30). Some late scares are circulating about favourite Cousin Vinny’s well being in advance of the race.  If all is well with him come 1.30pm on Tuesday, he does have the speed to run his rivals ragged.

Torphichen is the one for me if the Irish hope fails to deliver. He won’t mind the rain with Andrew McNamara on board at 11/2. The heart still says Cousin Vinny, however.

In the Arkle Chase (2.05), the inclusion of Follow The Plan (16/1) is one that I’m attracted to. Trainer Oliver McKiernan has a small string and he sent this fellow to record a fine victory over Tatenen at Leopardstown over Christmas. Indeed, his daughter is a kids’ presenter on RTÉ Television.

Paul Nicholls charge is the favourite here, but don’t rule out the Forpadydeplasterer at 9/1.

The Smurfit Champion Hurdle (3.20) should be a classic, with much of the money (maybe too much) on Binocular. Celstial Halo also has his support, with Jered (33/1) – an engaging price to be the best of the Irish. 

In the Cross Country Chase (4.0o) Enda Bolger seeks his fourth victory in the marathon. L’Ami – once a Gold Cup contender – is the favourite, but preference here is for Garde Champetre to repeat the victory of last year at 3/1, with Paul Nolan’s Dix Villez (7/1) also likely to be in the skake-up.

In the Mares Hurdle (4.40pm) – the heart rules the head again with Willie Mullins’ Quevega my preference, but many dangers lie waiting. Among them is David Pipe’s Gaspara at 20/1.

Enjoy the opening day, and the possible element of surprise that may be in store.

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So – no joy from Italy and in the end, the Scots gave them a decent beating (26-6). Two bad teams, but Italy never really gave themselves a chance and were refereed harshly as well.

In a sense, the Scots showing a little form is probably good news for Ireland and the spread for the next round makes for interesting reading.

If Ireland are serious about winning the tournament, I suspect they may have it in the back of their mind to put on the points if given even a sniff of a chance to do so – though I’m sure that publicly they will toe the usual line about ensuring the win first.

They showed aggression against England by opting to kick for the corner and I believe they are to an extent at least prepared to entertain thinking ‘outside the box’.

Wales, with a whirlwind display in round one, showed what can be done against the Scots with a bit of intensity and Ireland’s ability to take the ball through the phases could see them score relatively freely.

Add in the fact that the current handicap (Ireland -3) is simply a must bet and this is a one that just has to be done in a big way.

By the by, I strongly suspect this price won’t last all that long but it would remain value at anything up to 7 or so, albeit possibly with a lower stake.

Recommended: 3 pts Ireland (-3) to beat Scotland at 10/11.