The serious business of the Champions League is upon us with Barcelona the favourites at this remove to land the ultimate prize in Rome. Their footballing displays this season have the Catalan giants at 5/2 favorites before a ball was kicked in the round of 16. 

Lyon stand in their way of further progress,  but in truth the French champions are not the same side who were genuine dark horses in the competition a few years back. Manchester United comfortably brushed them aside at the round of 16 in 2008, and Barcelona should do something similar over the two legs in spite of only drawing in France.

Jose Mourinho got on Alex Ferguson’s nerves when Porto shocked the Red Devils in 2004. The ‘Special One’ dash along the Old Trafford sideline on that evening was his introduction to the wider world. Fergie now hopes Mourinho will return to the Premier League. They’re good buddies now you see. But, Jose will no doubt want to pull another fast one, and so add a new dimension to their relationship.

United are a much stronger squad now than they were in 2004, and the feeling persists that the tie will be won at Old Trafford in a fortnight. The champions are tipped to prevail and after their first leg encounter in Milan, that view has gained even greater credence

Whiile Inter were poor, Real Madrid reached reached even greater levels of ineptitude against a Liverpool side, who were dogged and in a manner which has served them well in Europe since Rafa’s arrival.

As for Arsenal, they will be disappointed they didn’t bag more against Roma, while Chelsea will feel they have work to do against Juve in Turin on 10 March.

Bayern Munich were the big movers in the market after their 5-0 romp of Sporting Lisbon, and are 9/1 to win the competition outright. That is probably unlikely, but don’t bet against them reaching the semi-final if a favourable draw is theirs.

Indeed, the draw is all important, with an all English final very likely. The rest of Europe may not like it, but the power base of football in this continent is with the Premier League, and it does not look like shifting for a few years yet.

Live Champions League on RTÉ Two television and www.rte.ie/live on Tuesday 10/Wednesday 11 March from 7.00pm.

Six Nations Crunch

England (9/4) have a chance of beating Ireland at Croke Park if  they can improve on their showing against Wales. The experts claim Kidney’s men can wear them down, with Kidney’s men 6/1 to win the match from behind with england ahead at half-time. Tommy Bowe a good bet at 12/1 to be the first Irish try scorer.

Live RBS 6 Nations rugby on RTÉ Two and www.rte.ie/live from 2.30pm on Saturday, 28 February.

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I’m happy enough with where I am on the tournament as a whole – I would love to be holding an interest in Ireland but having plumped for a Wales Grand Slam at 5/1 as my pre-tournament tip at the start of the tournament, I’m banking on both Ireland and Wales coming through unbeaten to the last weekend, at which point I’ll be very tempted to just lay off and enjoy what should be one of the games of the season.

Anway, why get involved with a tight Grand Slam and outright market when there is obvious value staring you in the face in this weekend’s matches?

Where’s that? Why in the wooden spoon decider between Scotland v Italy of course. (I fancy France to beat Wales, but not enough and I reckon Ireland will beat England too – not at the prices).

Italy at 3/1 to beat Scotland is probably the best value bets we will see this tournament. In my book, it is closer to a 50/50 with Italy a shade ahead.

So (always remember that bookies are no mugs) – you have to ask: “why the price?”

Well, Scotland have shown flashes of being a decent side in their two games so far. In fact, they may well have a purple patch against Italy.

A try or two may even result but it’s what happens around that period that is a concern for them because all they have shown so far is that they are a poor side with the odd 10 minute spell in them.

But. Rugby matches – and this is especially true of bad rugby matches – are won up front and the Italian pack is quite capable of making mince meat of their Scottish counterparts.

The Scottish backrow is particularly weak and Sergio Parisse and Mauro Bergamasco should be able to limit Scotland’s time on the ball and space to play from the ruck out.

True, Italy have problems of their own, especially at half-back and with a few injuries and form issues, the backline as a whole is under pressure but to me, the problems are surmountable – or at least, they are surmountable over 80 minutes against Scotland. Certainly, more surmountable than Scotland’s sheer lack of muscle.

Italy are considered weak by the market because they played like a drain against England – it’s OK to just write that one off – and eventually got overrun by an excellent Ireland side after a decent 50 minutes or so. Scotland are way short of Ireland’s class on what we have seen so far. They have neither the power nor the quality and speed in the backline to do what Ireland did.  It is also importnat to note that if the Scots try to press up in defence as Ireland did when they began to turn the game around, they will likely be smashed backwards.

Italy to outmuscle Scotland and win a tough, tight one.

Recommended: 3 points on Italy to beat Scotland at 3/1.

Last weekend, Ireland had their expected victory over the Italians, though for a while it did look that they would struggle to beat them by the 10 point margin I was hoping for. Beat them, they did, and what was very much in evidence was Declan Kidney formulating a game plan to deal with the given situation.

 The Azzurri were a tough nut to crack, and on the evidence of their dispaly against the Welsh, Martin Johnson’s England will be no pushovers in the cauldron that will be Croke Park on Saturday, 28 February. Their 2/1 price to spoil the Irish party will not see many takers on this side of the pond, but with Kidney’s men carrying the weight of expectancy of potential Grand Slam winners, an ambush of sorts is always possible.

Domestic Battles Near Kick-Off

This week saw the release of the League of Ireland fixtures and so bookmakers across the land can open up their markets. The Premier League is a 10-team competition this season and much focus will head to the foothills of the Dublin mountains where Shamrock Rovers new home in Tallaght finally sees competitive action. I liked the look of their new manager, Michael O’Neill, when he spoke at his unveiling last December.  He spoke a lot of sense and seemed to have a clear vision of what he wanted to achieve.

Last season the Hoops played some nice football and the roar of 6,000 or so fans in Tallaght may very well see them finish higher in the League in 2009. They are 10/1 with Ladbrokes to win the championship. A nice price, I hear you say, but maybe their day will ultimately come in the early years of the next decade.  However, turbulent winds are still forceast to buffett the League of Ireland in the short term, so Shamrock Rovers could be the team to emerge from the slipstream and grab ultimate glory.

Derry City, at odds of 7/4 are a more solid bet, with Bohemians at 15/8, favourites to retain their title, though its hard to know how things off the field are going to pan out at Dalymount Park this season. Interestingly, a poll on the RTÉ website http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/mns/ asks which Premier League of Ireland manager will be first to lose their job this season. As I write, Pat Fenlon is who the respondents think will go first, with Stephen Kenny (Derry City) and Paul Cook (Sligo Rovers) deemed least likely to walk the plank.  

League of Ireland coverage resumes on RTÉ Two television and www.rte.ie/live on Friday, 6 March at 7.35pm when Bohemians travel to face Dundalk at Oriel Park. Monday Night Soccer returns to RTÉ Two television on Monday, 9 March.

This weekend in the Barclays Premier League Manchester United will bid to put a bit of daylight between themselves and Liverpool at the summit. Blackburn Rovers are the visitors to Old Trafford and a 3-0 victory to the Red Devils at 7/1 would not be a surprise.

Liverpool face Manchester City at Anfield and if Benitez picks his strongest team and plays them from the start they should account for Mark Hughes’ outfit who were terrible at Portsmouth last week. Hughes was a great player, and by all accounts is a decent man, but I have a feeling we may not see him on the line at Eastlands next August.  

In other Premier League tussles, I fancy Wigan to go to Riverside and beat Middlesborough; Chelsea to turn the tables on Aston Villa for their new manager and Newcastle can battle for a draw against Everton for their absent manager.

Watch Premier Soccer Saturday on RTÉ Two from 8.00pm. 

Club Bragging Rights

The GAA club sem-finals are down for decision this weekend. In hurling Ballyhale Shamrocks against Portumna is set to be a real cracker, and while the Kilkenny side are favourites, the Galway men cannot be ruled with live wire Joe Canning in their side.

De La Salle of Waterford can book their place in the final with victory over Cushendall of Antrim.

In the football, Crossmaglen should be too strong for Dromcollogher Broadford, while Corofin of Galway (11/8) can upset Kilmacud Crokes in the other semi-final in Longford. After that, it’s roll on St Patrick’s Day.

Listen to live coverage of All Ireland club semi-finals on Saturday Sport & Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1.  Watch highlights on Sunday Sport on RTÉ Two television from 8.00pm.

It’s Valentine’s weekend and love is in the air, though it could be a massacre in Semple Stadium as Tipperary face a Cork slection in Division 1 of the Allianz Hurling League under lights. The Rebels third string, or is it fourth, fought gamely against the Dubs last weekend, but Tipperary are a more potent force and are well capable of getting four or more goals at 5/6.

In the football League, Fermanagh to beat Meath at 2/1 represents the best value this weekend, as the Royals looked out of sorts in their opening match against Cork. Kerry’s visit to Tyrone will see Jack O’Connor lock horns again with Micky Harte. I’m going to go with the Kingdom to reverse the result of last September and claim the points at 13/8.

Listen to the best of the Allianz League action on Sunday Sport (LW & DAB) on RTÉ Radio 1. Highlights on RTÉ Two television from 7.00pm.

Ireland expects

After Ireland’s victory over France, talk of the Grand Slam and a showdown with Wales on 21 March, is in the public domain. Dangerous sentiments, as the Irish are not always good at delivering when expectations are high. 

However, we may have turned a new leaf with Kidney at the helm and Brian O’Driscoll rediscovering the magic of old? Ireland are 4/1 to win the Grand Slam. In saying that, the trip to Rome should yield a victory, but the hosts will make it tough for us and we may have to work hard to win by plus 10 at 6/1.

Watch live coverage of Italy v Ireland on RTÉ Two from 1.45pm on Sunday, 15 February.        

Hennessy Gold Cup

With Cheltenham fast approaching, the Leopardstown highlight has lost some of its lustre as a result of its cancellation from last week.  Neptune Collonges travels over and he will hope to stay upright at the venue this time around. His odds are prohibitive at 8/11, and his rivals are not likely to trouble him with Thyne Again at 14/1 capable of following him home if he gets a good run

In the Betfair Ascot Chase on Saturday, I am going to oppose Voy Por Ustedes and plump instead for Tamarinbleu at about 5/2.

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Are England really that bad?

For me, with France v Scotland and Italy v Ireland priced up pretty well, that’s the crucial question heading in to this weekend.

Ireland will are a near certainty but are priced accordingly and the 12 point handicap is just about on the money. I would have a slight fancy for Ireland to beat it but not enough to bet it. France v Scotland is even harder to read. A 17 point handicap is maybe a touch generous to the French as Scotland should improve somewhat and have a few decent backs. Again, it’s priced up pretty well and there are big results at either end – a Scottish shock win or a classic thumping – that also put me off.

But what about Wales v England?

Well, England are a big price and drifting having opened at 3/1 and gone out to 10/3. Basically, they are about as unfashionable as bankers’ bonuses.

Looking at the vibe, there’s no Danny Cipriani to latch on to and even the likes of Ben Foden and Shane Geraghty have been dropped from the squad: an old warhorse vibe which should mean that the hype should be relatively low key – in terms of the price, that’s all good. There is not going be much ‘patriotic pound’ following them across the Severn.

But I also reckon that the fundamentals are there for England. In terms of physique and individual mental toughness I don’t see them being out-muscled or bullied in the way the Scots allowed themselves to be for long periods last week.

The lack of intensity against Italy is a worry but at the risk of repeating myself, I reckon the first side to find it in themselves to knock Wales around a bit in the tackle and ruck could find themselves with a surprisingly easy task in front of them. Last week ended up being a bit of a Mickey Mouse game for England: this is definitely not. I also reckon England are at or near rock-bottom and that this will help them perform.  Playing a fancied Wales side that you are playing as underdogs looks an ideal task for an English side that still has a natural arrogance about it.

Also, Wales are under pressure to win. England are under pressure to show some passion. That’s a slight but important difference and may play a role in deciding how this pans out.

Of course it’s always difficult to time the bet properly even when you figure that the hotpot (Wales in this case) is a potential bust and this is undeniably a little speculative. Even so, I’m going to say that on this occasion I think England – possibly even more than France in Week Three – may have what it takes.

(I have already recommended backing Wales at 5/1 for the Grand Slam but have gone off them a little since seeing the Scotland game and happy to lay off that bet to a degree. Basically, there’s a little extra scope there – though I still think a small investment on England this weekend is a sound bet in its own right).

RECOMMENDED: 1 point on England to beat Wales at 10/3.